Geopolitics Alpha

Bad news for Trump ahead of the midterms: it’s still the economy, stupid

Published . Updated .

Voters’ opposition to the state of Trump’s economy is well established – despite his desperate attempts to deflect Tell us: what is your personal ‘recession indicator’? It’s indisputable that the political polarization of our time has reduced (and confused) the influence of economic conditions on US elections. In September of 2024, in the waning weeks of the Joe Biden presidency, 65% of Republicans believed the US economy was getting worse. About six months later, as Donald Trump launched a trade war on the rest of the world with his “liberation day” tariffs, the share of Republican pessimists had dropped to 33%. Continue reading...

Directly affected

  • No company is named in this report.

Indirectly affected

  • LMT Lockheed Martin

    Defense contractors get more work when conflict spending rises

  • RTX RTX

    Defense contractors get more work when conflict spending rises

  • NOC Northrop Grumman

    Defense contractors get more work when conflict spending rises

  • GD General Dynamics

    Defense contractors get more work when conflict spending rises

  • AAPL Apple

    Sales and supply chains are exposed to a new tariff

  • NKE Nike

    Sales and supply chains are exposed to a new tariff

  • ITA iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense

    A fund of aerospace and defense companies

  • BA Boeing

    Defense and aerospace orders move with conflict spending

  • LHX L3Harris

    Defense contractors get more work when conflict spending rises

  • HII Huntington Ingalls

    Shipyards benefit when naval spending rises

Price reaction, T-5 to T+3

TickerT-5T-3T-1T0T+1T+2T+3
LMT———————
RTX———————
NOC———————
GD———————
AAPL———————
NKE———————
ITA———————
BA———————
LHX———————
HII———————

Voters’ opposition to the state of Trump’s economy is well established – despite his desperate attempts to deflect Tell us: what is your personal ‘recession indicator’? It’s indisputable that the political polarization of our time has redu…

Source: The Guardian

Defense

SPY
XLI

How solid the defense case looks

12 out of 100

“Bad news for Trump ahead of the midterms: it’s still the economy, stupid” scores 12 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources.