Geopolitics Alpha

Bitcoin Rises as Markets Digest Inflation Data Ahead of Fed Rate Decision

Published . Updated .

Inflation held at 3.4% and core cooled annually, but a hot monthly core reading kept Fed hike odds near 62% while crypto markets rallied broadly.

Directly affected

  • CRCW Crypto

    Named in this report.

Indirectly affected

  • IBIT iShares Bitcoin Trust

    This price moves with the crypto market

  • COIN Coinbase

    The crypto exchange moves with trading volumes

  • MSTR Strategy

    This company's value is tied to its bitcoin holdings

  • MARA MARA Holdings

    Bitcoin miners move with the bitcoin price

  • TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond

    Long-term bonds move when yields change

  • IEF iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond

    Treasury bonds move when yields change

  • RIOT Riot Platforms

    Bitcoin miners move with the bitcoin price

  • HOOD Robinhood

    Retail trading apps move with crypto volumes

  • SHY iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond

    Short-term bonds move when the Fed changes rates

  • SPY SPDR S&P 500

    Stocks move when the Fed changes the rate path

Price reaction, T-5 to T+3

TickerT-5T-3T-1T0T+1T+2T+3
CRCW———————
IBIT———————
COIN———————
MSTR———————
MARA———————
TLT———————
IEF———————
RIOT———————
HOOD———————
SHY———————
SPY———————

Inflation held at 3.4% and core cooled annually, but a hot monthly core reading kept Fed hike odds near 62% while crypto markets rallied broadly.

Source: Decrypt

How far United States Gasoline Fund (UGA) has moved since 12 Sep 2026

Since the first closing price after “Bitcoin Rises as Markets Digest Inflation Data Ahead of Fed Rate Decision,” United States Gasoline Fund (UGA) is +3.77%. The S&P 500 fund (SPY) is +0.77% over the same days, a +3.00% difference versus the market.

UGA
SPY

Who gains and who loses around United States Gasoline Fund (UGA)

Companies tied to this story

  • UGA United States Gasoline Fund

    For “Bitcoin Rises as Markets Digest Inflation Data Ahead of Fed Rate Decision,” United States Gasoline Fund (UGA) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Higher fuel and transport costs can propagate into commodity inputs, consumer margins, credit conditions, and interest-rate expectations

  • GSG iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust

    In “Bitcoin Rises as Markets Digest Inflation Data Ahead of Fed Rate Decision,” iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust (GSG) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Higher fuel and transport costs can propagate into commodity inputs, consumer margins, credit conditions, and interest-rate expectations

  • DBA Invesco Db Agriculture Fund

    In “Bitcoin Rises as Markets Digest Inflation Data Ahead of Fed Rate Decision,” Invesco Db Agriculture Fund (DBA) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Higher fuel and transport costs can propagate into commodity inputs, consumer margins, credit conditions, and interest-rate expectations

  • MOO Vaneck Etf Trust

    Vaneck Etf Trust (MOO) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 12 Sep 2026 story “Bitcoin Rises as Markets Digest Inflation Data Ahead of Fed Rate Decision.” Reason on file: Higher fuel and transport costs can propagate into commodity inputs, consumer margins, credit conditions, and interest-rate expectations

  • XME Spdr Series Trust

    Spdr Series Trust (XME) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 12 Sep 2026 story “Bitcoin Rises as Markets Digest Inflation Data Ahead of Fed Rate Decision.” Reason on file: Higher fuel and transport costs can propagate into commodity inputs, consumer margins, credit conditions, and interest-rate expectations

  • XLY Select Sector Spdr Tr

    For “Bitcoin Rises as Markets Digest Inflation Data Ahead of Fed Rate Decision,” Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLY) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Higher fuel and transport costs can propagate into commodity inputs, consumer margins, credit conditions, and interest-rate expectations

  • IWM Ishares Tr

    For “Bitcoin Rises as Markets Digest Inflation Data Ahead of Fed Rate Decision,” Ishares Tr (IWM) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Higher fuel and transport costs can propagate into commodity inputs, consumer margins, credit conditions, and interest-rate expectations

  • HYG Ishares Tr

    In “Bitcoin Rises as Markets Digest Inflation Data Ahead of Fed Rate Decision,” Ishares Tr (HYG) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Higher fuel and transport costs can propagate into commodity inputs, consumer margins, credit conditions, and interest-rate expectations

United States Gasoline Fund (UGA)

On 12 Sep 2026, “Bitcoin Rises as Markets Digest Inflation Data Ahead of Fed Rate Decision” is the story that connects United States Gasoline Fund (UGA) to this story.

United States Gasoline Fund (UGA) is on the page because Higher fuel and transport costs can propagate into commodity inputs, consumer margins, credit conditions, and interest-rate expectations

iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust (GSG) is here too. Its reason reads: Higher fuel and transport costs can propagate into commodity inputs, consumer margins, credit conditions, and interest-rate expectations

Price levels for United States Gasoline Fund (UGA)

DBA traded between 27.85 and 28.86 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 28.19. GSG traded between 35.09 and 37.22 across 10 sessions. The latest close on file is 37.04. UGA traded between 140.00 and 152.81 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 143.49.

What the saved facts support for United States Gasoline Fund (UGA)

46 out of 100

“Bitcoin Rises as Markets Digest Inflation Data Ahead of Fed Rate Decision” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 21 linked companies.