Geopolitics Alpha

Businesses are growing at the fastest pace in over four years. Why war and inflation aren’t slowing the U.S. economy down.

Published . Updated .

Expensive gas, higher inflation, a stalemate with Iran and rising interest rates — no matter. The U.S. economy appears to have sped up in the early fall.

Directly affected

  • No company is named in this report.

Indirectly affected

  • FRO Frontline

    Tanker operators earn more when freight rates spike

  • INSW International Seaways

    Tanker operators earn more when freight rates spike

  • DHT DHT Holdings

    Tanker operators earn more when freight rates spike

  • TNK Teekay Tankers

    Tanker operators earn more when freight rates spike

  • USO United States Oil Fund

    Oil prices move when Iranian supply is at risk

  • XLE Energy Select Sector SPDR

    Energy companies move with Iran supply risk

  • LMT Lockheed Martin

    Defense contractors get more work when conflict spending rises

  • RTX RTX

    Defense contractors get more work when conflict spending rises

  • TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond

    Long-term bonds move when yields change

  • DAL Delta Air Lines

    Airlines pay more for fuel when oil prices jump

Price reaction, T-5 to T+3

TickerT-5T-3T-1T0T+1T+2T+3
FRO———————
INSW———————
DHT———————
TNK———————
USO———————
XLE———————
LMT———————
RTX———————
TLT———————
DAL———————

Expensive gas, higher inflation, a stalemate with Iran and rising interest rates — no matter. The U.S. economy appears to have sped up in the early fall.

Source: MarketWatch

The price since 23 Sep 2026: United States Gasoline Fund (UGA) versus the S&P 500

Since the first closing price after “Businesses are growing at the fastest pace in over four years. Why war and inflation aren’t slowing the U.S. economy down.,” United States Gasoline Fund (UGA) is -3.95%. The S&P 500 fund (SPY) is -0.09% over the same days, a -3.86% difference versus the market. industrial stocks (XLI) is -1.28%, a -2.67% difference versus that group of stocks.

UGA
SPY
XLI

United States Gasoline Fund (UGA) on one side of this defense story

Companies carried with this story

  • UGA United States Gasoline Fund

    For “Businesses are growing at the fastest pace in over four years. Why war and inflation aren’t slowing the U.S. economy down.,” United States Gasoline Fund (UGA) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Higher fuel and transport costs can propagate into commodity inputs, consumer margins, credit conditions, and interest-rate expectations

  • GSG iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust

    In “Businesses are growing at the fastest pace in over four years. Why war and inflation aren’t slowing the U.S. economy down.,” iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust (GSG) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Higher fuel and transport costs can propagate into commodity inputs, consumer margins, credit conditions, and interest-rate expectations

  • DBA Invesco Db Agriculture Fund

    In “Businesses are growing at the fastest pace in over four years. Why war and inflation aren’t slowing the U.S. economy down.,” Invesco Db Agriculture Fund (DBA) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Higher fuel and transport costs can propagate into commodity inputs, consumer margins, credit conditions, and interest-rate expectations

  • MOO Vaneck Etf Trust

    For “Businesses are growing at the fastest pace in over four years. Why war and inflation aren’t slowing the U.S. economy down.,” Vaneck Etf Trust (MOO) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Higher fuel and transport costs can propagate into commodity inputs, consumer margins, credit conditions, and interest-rate expectations

  • XME Spdr Series Trust

    Spdr Series Trust (XME) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 23 Sep 2026 story “Businesses are growing at the fastest pace in over four years. Why war and inflation aren’t slowing the U.S. economy down..” Reason on file: Higher fuel and transport costs can propagate into commodity inputs, consumer margins, credit conditions, and interest-rate expectations

  • XLY Select Sector Spdr Tr

    For “Businesses are growing at the fastest pace in over four years. Why war and inflation aren’t slowing the U.S. economy down.,” Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLY) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Higher fuel and transport costs can propagate into commodity inputs, consumer margins, credit conditions, and interest-rate expectations

  • IWM Ishares Tr

    For “Businesses are growing at the fastest pace in over four years. Why war and inflation aren’t slowing the U.S. economy down.,” Ishares Tr (IWM) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Higher fuel and transport costs can propagate into commodity inputs, consumer margins, credit conditions, and interest-rate expectations

  • HYG Ishares Tr

    In “Businesses are growing at the fastest pace in over four years. Why war and inflation aren’t slowing the U.S. economy down.,” Ishares Tr (HYG) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Higher fuel and transport costs can propagate into commodity inputs, consumer margins, credit conditions, and interest-rate expectations

How defense news reaches United States Gasoline Fund (UGA)

United States Gasoline Fund (UGA) is the company in “Businesses are growing at the fastest pace in over four years. Why war and inflation aren’t slowing the U.S. economy down.,” the 23 Sep 2026 Defense story.

What ties United States Gasoline Fund (UGA) to the headline is this: Higher fuel and transport costs can propagate into commodity inputs, consumer margins, credit conditions, and interest-rate expectations

iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust (GSG) is here too. Its reason reads: Higher fuel and transport costs can propagate into commodity inputs, consumer margins, credit conditions, and interest-rate expectations

Price levels for United States Gasoline Fund (UGA)

DBA traded between 27.85 and 28.86 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 28.19. GSG traded between 35.09 and 37.22 across 10 sessions. The latest close on file is 37.04. UGA traded between 140.00 and 152.81 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 143.49.

How solid the defense case looks

46 out of 100

“Businesses are growing at the fastest pace in over four years. Why war and inflation aren’t slowing the U.S. economy down.” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 19 linked companies.