Geopolitics Alpha

Can the US win the AI cold war with China?

Published . Updated .

US attempts to slow down Chinese progress on AI through economic restrictions could backfire.

Directly affected

  • No company is named in this report.

Indirectly affected

  • LMT Lockheed Martin

    Defense contractors get more work when conflict spending rises

  • RTX RTX

    Defense contractors get more work when conflict spending rises

  • NOC Northrop Grumman

    Defense contractors get more work when conflict spending rises

  • GD General Dynamics

    Defense contractors get more work when conflict spending rises

  • ITA iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense

    A fund of aerospace and defense companies

  • BA Boeing

    Defense and aerospace orders move with conflict spending

  • LHX L3Harris

    Defense contractors get more work when conflict spending rises

  • HII Huntington Ingalls

    Shipyards benefit when naval spending rises

  • XAR SPDR SERIES TRUST

    Material security escalation can alter defense demand expectations and risk premia.

  • SUPX SUPERX AI TECHNOLOGY LTD

    GA selected SUPX as a RELATED security because its canonical security name directly matches this event's themes: technology, ai. This is an explainable DERIVED market relationship, not a claim that the security was named in the source article.

Price reaction, T-5 to T+3

TickerT-5T-3T-1T0T+1T+2T+3
LMT———————
RTX———————
NOC———————
GD———————
ITA———————
BA———————
LHX———————
HII———————
XAR———————
SUPX———————

US attempts to slow down Chinese progress on AI through economic restrictions could backfire.

Source: Al Jazeera World

IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) since “Can the US win the AI cold war with China?,” compared with the market

Since the first closing price after “Can the US win the AI cold war with China?,” IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) is -3.02%. The S&P 500 fund (SPY) is -0.88% over the same days, a -2.13% difference versus the market. industrial stocks (XLI) is -2.10%, a -0.92% difference versus that group of stocks.

ITA
SPY
XLI

Official trades in IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) around 21 Sep 2026

Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).

Companies in defense around IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA)

Companies carried with this story

  • ITA IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF

    For “Can the US win the AI cold war with China?,” IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Material security escalation can alter defense demand expectations and risk premia

  • XAR Spdr Series Trust

    Spdr Series Trust (XAR) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 21 Sep 2026 story “Can the US win the AI cold war with China?.” Reason on file: Material security escalation can alter defense demand expectations and risk premia

  • SUPX SuperX AI Technology

    For “Can the US win the AI cold war with China?,” SuperX AI Technology (SUPX) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: GA selected SUPX as a RELATED security because its canonical security name directly matches this event's themes: technology, ai. This is an explainable DERIVED market relationship, not a claim that the security was named in the source article

  • ABAT American Battery Technology

    American Battery Technology (ABAT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 21 Sep 2026 story “Can the US win the AI cold war with China?.” Reason on file: GA selected ABAT as a RELATED security because its canonical security name directly matches this event's themes: technology. This is an explainable DERIVED market relationship, not a claim that the security was named in the source article

  • ACM Aecom

    In “Can the US win the AI cold war with China?,” Aecom (ACM) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: GA selected ACM as a RELATED security because its canonical security name directly matches this event's themes: technology. This is an explainable DERIVED market relationship, not a claim that the security was named in the source article

  • AOSL Alpha & Omega Semiconductor

    In “Can the US win the AI cold war with China?,” Alpha & Omega Semiconductor (AOSL) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: GA selected AOSL as a RELATED security because its canonical security name directly matches this event's themes: semiconductor. This is an explainable DERIVED market relationship, not a claim that the security was named in the source article

  • BBAI BigBear.ai Holdings

    In “Can the US win the AI cold war with China?,” BigBear.ai Holdings (BBAI) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: GA selected BBAI as a RELATED security because its canonical security name directly matches this event's themes: ai. This is an explainable DERIVED market relationship, not a claim that the security was named in the source article

  • CHAT Roundhill Generative AI & Tech

    In “Can the US win the AI cold war with China?,” Roundhill Generative AI & Tech (CHAT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: GA selected CHAT as a RELATED security because its canonical security name directly matches this event's themes: ai. This is an explainable DERIVED market relationship, not a claim that the security was named in the source article

How “Can the US win the AI cold war with China?” reaches IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA)

On 21 Sep 2026, “Can the US win the AI cold war with China?” is the story that connects IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) to Defense.

IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) is on the page because Material security escalation can alter defense demand expectations and risk premia

Spdr Series Trust (XAR) is here too. Its reason reads: Material security escalation can alter defense demand expectations and risk premia

Price levels for IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA)

ITA traded between 201.08 and 217.79 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 207.60. SUPX traded between 6.15 and 7.09 across 10 sessions. The latest close on file is 6.72. XAR traded between 216.28 and 245.40 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 223.20.

A simple score for IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA)

46 out of 100

“Can the US win the AI cold war with China?” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 11 linked companies.