Here are the hidden flaws in Warsh’s new way of tracking inflation
Published . Updated .
Economists at Nomura say the new way Kevin Warsh is tracking inflation doesn’t have better predictive power than core readings.
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond
Long-term bonds move when yields change
- IEF iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond
Treasury bonds move when yields change
- SHY iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond
Short-term bonds move when the Fed changes rates
- SPY SPDR S&P 500
Stocks move when the Fed changes the rate path
- JPM JPMorgan Chase
Bank profits move with lending and interest rates
- BAC Bank of America
Bank profits move with lending and interest rates
- GS Goldman Sachs
Bank profits move with lending and interest rates
- XLF Financial Select Sector SPDR
A fund of financial companies
- KRE SPDR S&P Regional Banking
Regional banks are sensitive to interest rates
- HYG ISHARES TR
Higher fuel and transport costs can propagate into commodity inputs, consumer margins, credit conditions, and interest-rate expectations.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
Economists at Nomura say the new way Kevin Warsh is tracking inflation doesn’t have better predictive power than core readings.
Source: MarketWatch
Ishares Tr (HYG) since this story, compared with the market
Since the first closing price after “Here are the hidden flaws in Warsh’s new way of tracking inflation,” Ishares Tr (HYG) is -1.39%. The S&P 500 fund (SPY) is -0.09% over the same days, a -1.30% difference versus the market.
Who gains and who loses around Ishares Tr (HYG)
Companies carried with this story
- HYG Ishares Tr
Ishares Tr (HYG) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 23 Sep 2026 story “Here are the hidden flaws in Warsh’s new way of tracking inflation.” Reason on file: Higher fuel and transport costs can propagate into commodity inputs, consumer margins, credit conditions, and interest-rate expectations
- IEI Ishares Tr
For “Here are the hidden flaws in Warsh’s new way of tracking inflation,” Ishares Tr (IEI) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Higher fuel and transport costs can propagate into commodity inputs, consumer margins, credit conditions, and interest-rate expectations
- UGA United States Gasoline Fund
For “Here are the hidden flaws in Warsh’s new way of tracking inflation,” United States Gasoline Fund (UGA) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Higher fuel and transport costs can propagate into commodity inputs, consumer margins, credit conditions, and interest-rate expectations
- GSG iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust
iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust (GSG) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 23 Sep 2026 story “Here are the hidden flaws in Warsh’s new way of tracking inflation.” Reason on file: Higher fuel and transport costs can propagate into commodity inputs, consumer margins, credit conditions, and interest-rate expectations
- DBA Invesco Db Agriculture Fund
Invesco Db Agriculture Fund (DBA) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 23 Sep 2026 story “Here are the hidden flaws in Warsh’s new way of tracking inflation.” Reason on file: Higher fuel and transport costs can propagate into commodity inputs, consumer margins, credit conditions, and interest-rate expectations
- MOO Vaneck Etf Trust
In “Here are the hidden flaws in Warsh’s new way of tracking inflation,” Vaneck Etf Trust (MOO) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Higher fuel and transport costs can propagate into commodity inputs, consumer margins, credit conditions, and interest-rate expectations
- XME Spdr Series Trust
Spdr Series Trust (XME) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 23 Sep 2026 story “Here are the hidden flaws in Warsh’s new way of tracking inflation.” Reason on file: Higher fuel and transport costs can propagate into commodity inputs, consumer margins, credit conditions, and interest-rate expectations
- XLY Select Sector Spdr Tr
In “Here are the hidden flaws in Warsh’s new way of tracking inflation,” Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLY) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Higher fuel and transport costs can propagate into commodity inputs, consumer margins, credit conditions, and interest-rate expectations
Ishares Tr (HYG)
Ishares Tr (HYG) is the company in “Here are the hidden flaws in Warsh’s new way of tracking inflation,” the 23 Sep 2026 this story story.
Ishares Tr (HYG) is on the page because Higher fuel and transport costs can propagate into commodity inputs, consumer margins, credit conditions, and interest-rate expectations
Also listed, Ishares Tr (IEI): Higher fuel and transport costs can propagate into commodity inputs, consumer margins, credit conditions, and interest-rate expectations
The price range for Ishares Tr (HYG), and the dates in the story
HYG traded between 76.40 and 78.75 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 76.82. IEI traded between 113.03 and 114.41 across 10 sessions. The latest close on file is 113.99. UGA traded between 140.00 and 152.81 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 143.49.
What the saved facts support for Ishares Tr (HYG)
46 out of 100
“Here are the hidden flaws in Warsh’s new way of tracking inflation” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 19 linked companies.