IMF forecasts Middle East GDP contraction as war drags on
Published . Updated .
IMF forecasts Middle East GDP contraction as war drags on Arabian Gulf Business Insight | AGBI
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- LMT Lockheed Martin
Defense contractors get more work when conflict spending rises
- RTX RTX
Defense contractors get more work when conflict spending rises
- NOC Northrop Grumman
Defense contractors get more work when conflict spending rises
- GD General Dynamics
Defense contractors get more work when conflict spending rises
- ITA iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense
A fund of aerospace and defense companies
- BA Boeing
Defense and aerospace orders move with conflict spending
- LHX L3Harris
Defense contractors get more work when conflict spending rises
- HII Huntington Ingalls
Shipyards benefit when naval spending rises
- XAR SPDR SERIES TRUST
Material security escalation can alter defense demand expectations and risk premia.
- PPA INVESCO AEROSPACE & DEFENSE ETF
GA selected PPA as a RELATED security because its canonical security name directly matches this event's themes: defense. This is an explainable DERIVED market relationship, not a claim that the security was named in the source article.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
IMF forecasts Middle East GDP contraction as war drags on Arabian Gulf Business Insight | AGBI
How far IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) has moved since 13 Oct 2026
Since the first closing price after “IMF forecasts Middle East GDP contraction as war drags on,” IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) is +1.63%. The S&P 500 fund (SPY) is -0.40% over the same days, a +2.03% difference versus the market. industrial stocks (XLI) is -0.20%, a +1.83% difference versus that group of stocks.
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| BA | that day | -1.56% | final price |
| BA | the next day | -2.60% | final price |
| BA | two days later | -0.40% | final price |
| BA | three days later | +0.30% | final price |
| BA | three days earlier | -0.93% | final price |
| BA | five days earlier | +0.18% | final price |
| GD | that day | -0.79% | final price |
| GD | the next day | -0.15% | final price |
| GD | two days later | +0.55% | final price |
| GD | three days later | +2.69% | final price |
| GD | three days earlier | -1.56% | final price |
| GD | five days earlier | -1.12% | final price |
| HII | that day | -2.41% | final price |
| HII | the next day | +0.16% | final price |
| HII | two days later | +1.23% | final price |
| HII | three days later | +2.87% | final price |
| HII | three days earlier | +0.38% | final price |
| HII | five days earlier | -0.10% | final price |
| IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) | that day | -0.98% | final price |
| IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) | the next day | -0.89% | final price |
| IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) | two days later | +0.37% | final price |
| IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) | three days later | +1.47% | final price |
| IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) | three days earlier | -0.59% | final price |
| IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) | five days earlier | +1.03% | final price |
| LHX | that day | -1.46% | final price |
| LHX | the next day | -0.27% | final price |
| LHX | two days later | +0.99% | final price |
| LHX | three days later | +4.32% | final price |
| LHX | three days earlier | -0.55% | final price |
| LHX | five days earlier | -0.18% | final price |
The Persian Gulf count beside this story
Persian Gulf has 15 linked stories in the last 7 days and 15 in the last 30 on the page that also carries “IMF forecasts Middle East GDP contraction as war drags on.” The recent pace is rising.
Who gains and who pays if Persian Gulf stays in the story
Companies tied to this story
- ITA IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF
In “IMF forecasts Middle East GDP contraction as war drags on,” IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Material security escalation can alter defense demand expectations and risk premia
- XAR Spdr Series Trust
In “IMF forecasts Middle East GDP contraction as war drags on,” Spdr Series Trust (XAR) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Material security escalation can alter defense demand expectations and risk premia
- PPA Invesco Aerospace & Defense Etf
In “IMF forecasts Middle East GDP contraction as war drags on,” Invesco Aerospace & Defense Etf (PPA) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: GA selected PPA as a RELATED security because its canonical security name directly matches this event's themes: defense. This is an explainable DERIVED market relationship, not a claim that the security was named in the source article
- WAR U.S. Global Technology And Aerospace & Defense Etf
In “IMF forecasts Middle East GDP contraction as war drags on,” U.S. Global Technology And Aerospace & Defense Etf (WAR) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: GA selected WAR as a RELATED security because its canonical security name directly matches this event's themes: defense. This is an explainable DERIVED market relationship, not a claim that the security was named in the source article
- GLD Spdr Gold Trust
In “IMF forecasts Middle East GDP contraction as war drags on,” Spdr Gold Trust (GLD) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Material security escalation can affect safe-haven and macro-risk proxies; this is a monitoring relationship, not a directional prediction
- TLT Ishares Tr
For “IMF forecasts Middle East GDP contraction as war drags on,” Ishares Tr (TLT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Material security escalation can affect safe-haven and macro-risk proxies; this is a monitoring relationship, not a directional prediction
- UUP Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund
Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 13 Oct 2026 story “IMF forecasts Middle East GDP contraction as war drags on.” Reason on file: Material security escalation can affect safe-haven and macro-risk proxies; this is a monitoring relationship, not a directional prediction
What Persian Gulf means for IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA)
The 13 Oct 2026 story “IMF forecasts Middle East GDP contraction as war drags on” names IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) because of Persian Gulf.
The link for IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) is this: Material security escalation can alter defense demand expectations and risk premia
A second company, Spdr Series Trust (XAR), is listed for a different reason: Material security escalation can alter defense demand expectations and risk premia
Dates in the story, and the IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) price range
ITA traded between 201.08 and 217.79 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 207.60. PPA traded between 151.56 and 162.12 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 156.07. XAR traded between 216.28 and 245.40 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 223.20.
What the saved facts support for IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA)
46 out of 100
“IMF forecasts Middle East GDP contraction as war drags on” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 7 linked companies.