Iran war to spur inflation by 0.6 percentage point by Q1 2027: CBO study
Published . Updated .
“Re-escalation of the war in the Middle East” was the key factor behind a Federal Reserve decision to raise the main interest rate, Yardeni Research President Ed Yardeni said.
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- FRO Frontline
Tanker operators earn more when freight rates spike
- INSW International Seaways
Tanker operators earn more when freight rates spike
- DHT DHT Holdings
Tanker operators earn more when freight rates spike
- TNK Teekay Tankers
Tanker operators earn more when freight rates spike
- USO United States Oil Fund
Oil prices move when Iranian supply is at risk
- XLE Energy Select Sector SPDR
Energy companies move with Iran supply risk
- LMT Lockheed Martin
Defense contractors get more work when conflict spending rises
- RTX RTX
Defense contractors get more work when conflict spending rises
- TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond
Long-term bonds move when yields change
- DAL Delta Air Lines
Airlines pay more for fuel when oil prices jump
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
“Re-escalation of the war in the Middle East” was the key factor behind a Federal Reserve decision to raise the main interest rate, Yardeni Research President Ed Yardeni said.
Source: CFO Dive
How far United States Gasoline Fund (UGA) has moved since 17 Sep 2026
Since the first closing price after “Iran war to spur inflation by 0.6 percentage point by Q1 2027: CBO study,” United States Gasoline Fund (UGA) is -1.18%. The S&P 500 fund (SPY) is +0.65% over the same days, a -1.83% difference versus the market. industrial stocks (XLI) is -1.79%, a +0.61% difference versus that group of stocks.
The Middle East count beside this story
Middle East has 0 linked stories in the last 7 days and 0 in the last 30 on the page that also carries “Iran war to spur inflation by 0.6 percentage point by Q1 2027: CBO study.”
Who gains and who loses around United States Gasoline Fund (UGA)
Companies carried with this story
- UGA United States Gasoline Fund
For “Iran war to spur inflation by 0.6 percentage point by Q1 2027: CBO study,” United States Gasoline Fund (UGA) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Higher fuel and transport costs can propagate into commodity inputs, consumer margins, credit conditions, and interest-rate expectations
- GSG iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust
For “Iran war to spur inflation by 0.6 percentage point by Q1 2027: CBO study,” iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust (GSG) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Higher fuel and transport costs can propagate into commodity inputs, consumer margins, credit conditions, and interest-rate expectations
- DBA Invesco Db Agriculture Fund
Invesco Db Agriculture Fund (DBA) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 17 Sep 2026 story “Iran war to spur inflation by 0.6 percentage point by Q1 2027: CBO study.” Reason on file: Higher fuel and transport costs can propagate into commodity inputs, consumer margins, credit conditions, and interest-rate expectations
- XME Spdr Series Trust
In “Iran war to spur inflation by 0.6 percentage point by Q1 2027: CBO study,” Spdr Series Trust (XME) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Higher fuel and transport costs can propagate into commodity inputs, consumer margins, credit conditions, and interest-rate expectations
- XLY Select Sector Spdr Tr
For “Iran war to spur inflation by 0.6 percentage point by Q1 2027: CBO study,” Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLY) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Higher fuel and transport costs can propagate into commodity inputs, consumer margins, credit conditions, and interest-rate expectations
- IWM Ishares Tr
For “Iran war to spur inflation by 0.6 percentage point by Q1 2027: CBO study,” Ishares Tr (IWM) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Higher fuel and transport costs can propagate into commodity inputs, consumer margins, credit conditions, and interest-rate expectations
- HYG Ishares Tr
For “Iran war to spur inflation by 0.6 percentage point by Q1 2027: CBO study,” Ishares Tr (HYG) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Higher fuel and transport costs can propagate into commodity inputs, consumer margins, credit conditions, and interest-rate expectations
- IEI Ishares Tr
In “Iran war to spur inflation by 0.6 percentage point by Q1 2027: CBO study,” Ishares Tr (IEI) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Higher fuel and transport costs can propagate into commodity inputs, consumer margins, credit conditions, and interest-rate expectations
What Middle East means for United States Gasoline Fund (UGA)
The 17 Sep 2026 story “Iran war to spur inflation by 0.6 percentage point by Q1 2027: CBO study” names United States Gasoline Fund (UGA) because of Middle East.
For United States Gasoline Fund (UGA), the reason on file says Higher fuel and transport costs can propagate into commodity inputs, consumer margins, credit conditions, and interest-rate expectations
Also listed, iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust (GSG): Higher fuel and transport costs can propagate into commodity inputs, consumer margins, credit conditions, and interest-rate expectations
What this defense story puts on the calendar
DBA traded between 27.85 and 28.86 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 28.19. GSG traded between 35.09 and 37.22 across 10 sessions. The latest close on file is 37.04. UGA traded between 140.00 and 152.81 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 143.49.
How solid the defense case looks
46 out of 100
“Iran war to spur inflation by 0.6 percentage point by Q1 2027: CBO study” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 19 linked companies.