Geopolitics Alpha

Job openings are low and hiring is weak. Why the U.S. labor market won’t get better soon.

Published . Updated .

War, high gas prices, rising interest rates and AI are keeping a lid on U.S. job creation.

Directly affected

  • No company is named in this report.

Indirectly affected

  • LMT Lockheed Martin

    Defense contractors get more work when conflict spending rises

  • RTX RTX

    Defense contractors get more work when conflict spending rises

  • NOC Northrop Grumman

    Defense contractors get more work when conflict spending rises

  • GD General Dynamics

    Defense contractors get more work when conflict spending rises

  • TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond

    Long-term bonds move when yields change

  • IEF iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond

    Treasury bonds move when yields change

  • ITA iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense

    A fund of aerospace and defense companies

  • BA Boeing

    Defense and aerospace orders move with conflict spending

  • LHX L3Harris

    Defense contractors get more work when conflict spending rises

  • HII Huntington Ingalls

    Shipyards benefit when naval spending rises

Price reaction, T-5 to T+3

TickerT-5T-3T-1T0T+1T+2T+3
LMT———————
RTX———————
NOC———————
GD———————
TLT———————
IEF———————
ITA———————
BA———————
LHX———————
HII———————

War, high gas prices, rising interest rates and AI are keeping a lid on U.S. job creation.

Source: MarketWatch

Price since this story was published: IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA)

Since the first closing price after “Job openings are low and hiring is weak. Why the U.S. labor market won’t get better soon.,” IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) is +0.19%. The S&P 500 fund (SPY) is +0.56% over the same days, a -0.37% difference versus the market. industrial stocks (XLI) is -0.13%, a +0.32% difference versus that group of stocks.

ITA
SPY
XLI

Who reported a IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) trade near this story

Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).

IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) on one side of this defense story

Companies carried with this story

  • ITA IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF

    For “Job openings are low and hiring is weak. Why the U.S. labor market won’t get better soon.,” IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Material security escalation can alter defense demand expectations and risk premia

  • XAR Spdr Series Trust

    Spdr Series Trust (XAR) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 29 Sep 2026 story “Job openings are low and hiring is weak. Why the U.S. labor market won’t get better soon..” Reason on file: Material security escalation can alter defense demand expectations and risk premia

  • SUPX SuperX AI Technology

    For “Job openings are low and hiring is weak. Why the U.S. labor market won’t get better soon.,” SuperX AI Technology (SUPX) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: GA selected SUPX as a RELATED security because its canonical security name directly matches this event's themes: technology, ai. This is an explainable DERIVED market relationship, not a claim that the security was named in the source article

  • ABAT American Battery Technology

    American Battery Technology (ABAT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 29 Sep 2026 story “Job openings are low and hiring is weak. Why the U.S. labor market won’t get better soon..” Reason on file: GA selected ABAT as a RELATED security because its canonical security name directly matches this event's themes: technology. This is an explainable DERIVED market relationship, not a claim that the security was named in the source article

  • ACM Aecom

    For “Job openings are low and hiring is weak. Why the U.S. labor market won’t get better soon.,” Aecom (ACM) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: GA selected ACM as a RELATED security because its canonical security name directly matches this event's themes: technology. This is an explainable DERIVED market relationship, not a claim that the security was named in the source article

  • AOSL Alpha & Omega Semiconductor

    In “Job openings are low and hiring is weak. Why the U.S. labor market won’t get better soon.,” Alpha & Omega Semiconductor (AOSL) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: GA selected AOSL as a RELATED security because its canonical security name directly matches this event's themes: semiconductor. This is an explainable DERIVED market relationship, not a claim that the security was named in the source article

  • BBAI BigBear.ai Holdings

    BigBear.ai Holdings (BBAI) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 29 Sep 2026 story “Job openings are low and hiring is weak. Why the U.S. labor market won’t get better soon..” Reason on file: GA selected BBAI as a RELATED security because its canonical security name directly matches this event's themes: ai. This is an explainable DERIVED market relationship, not a claim that the security was named in the source article

  • CHAT Roundhill Generative AI & Tech

    For “Job openings are low and hiring is weak. Why the U.S. labor market won’t get better soon.,” Roundhill Generative AI & Tech (CHAT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: GA selected CHAT as a RELATED security because its canonical security name directly matches this event's themes: ai. This is an explainable DERIVED market relationship, not a claim that the security was named in the source article

How defense news reaches IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA)

IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) is the company in “Job openings are low and hiring is weak. Why the U.S. labor market won’t get better soon.,” the 29 Sep 2026 Defense story.

What ties IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) to the headline is this: Material security escalation can alter defense demand expectations and risk premia

A second company, Spdr Series Trust (XAR), is listed for a different reason: Material security escalation can alter defense demand expectations and risk premia

What this defense story puts on the calendar

ITA traded between 201.08 and 217.79 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 207.60. SUPX traded between 6.15 and 7.09 across 10 sessions. The latest close on file is 6.72. XAR traded between 216.28 and 245.40 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 223.20.

How strong the case is around IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA)

46 out of 100

“Job openings are low and hiring is weak. Why the U.S. labor market won’t get better soon.” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 11 linked companies.