Geopolitics Alpha

Mired in their worst losing streak in years, small caps could be the best way for investors to play crucial CPI data

Published . Updated .

Stuart Kaiser, of Citigroup, recommends buying iShares Russell 2000 exchange-traded fund call options before the consumer-price index for September is released on Wednesday.

Directly affected

  • C Citigroup

    Named in this report.

Indirectly affected

  • TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond

    Long-term bonds move when yields change

  • IEF iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond

    Treasury bonds move when yields change

  • SHY iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond

    Short-term bonds move when the Fed changes rates

  • SPY SPDR S&P 500

    Stocks move when the Fed changes the rate path

  • JPM JPMorgan Chase

    Bank profits move with lending and interest rates

  • BAC Bank of America

    Bank profits move with lending and interest rates

  • GS Goldman Sachs

    Bank profits move with lending and interest rates

  • XLF Financial Select Sector SPDR

    A fund of financial companies

  • KRE SPDR S&P Regional Banking

    Regional banks are sensitive to interest rates

  • UGA UNITED STATES GASOLINE FUND LP

    Higher fuel and transport costs can propagate into commodity inputs, consumer margins, credit conditions, and interest-rate expectations.

Price reaction, T-5 to T+3

TickerT-5T-3T-1T0T+1T+2T+3
C———————
TLT———————
IEF-0.55%-0.31%—+0.04%+0.16%+0.34%+1.06%
SHY———————
SPY———————
JPM-0.20%-1.04%—+0.47%-0.44%+0.70%+0.77%
BAC-0.48%-1.44%—+0.48%-0.66%-5.34%-4.84%
GS-0.18%-0.88%—-0.12%-0.37%-1.86%-0.47%
XLF———————
KRE———————
UGA———————

Stuart Kaiser, of Citigroup, recommends buying iShares Russell 2000 exchange-traded fund call options before the consumer-price index for September is released on Wednesday.

Source: MarketWatch

Price since this story was published: United States Gasoline Fund (UGA)

Since the first closing price after “Mired in their worst losing streak in years, small caps could be the best way for investors to play crucial CPI data,” United States Gasoline Fund (UGA) is -1.70%. The S&P 500 fund (SPY) is -1.47% over the same days, a -0.23% difference versus the market.

CompanyWhenMoveStatus
BACthat day+0.48%final price
BACthe next day-0.66%final price
BACtwo days later-5.34%final price
BACthree days later-4.84%final price
BACthree days earlier-1.44%final price
BACfive days earlier-0.48%final price
Invesco Db Agriculture Fund (DBA)that day+0.37%final price
Invesco Db Agriculture Fund (DBA)the next day+0.35%final price
Invesco Db Agriculture Fund (DBA)two days later-0.23%final price
Invesco Db Agriculture Fund (DBA)three days later-0.11%final price
Invesco Db Agriculture Fund (DBA)three days earlier+0.60%final price
Invesco Db Agriculture Fund (DBA)five days earlier+0.44%final price
GSthat day-0.12%final price
GSthe next day-0.37%final price
GStwo days later-1.86%final price
GSthree days later-0.47%final price
GSthree days earlier-0.88%final price
GSfive days earlier-0.18%final price
IEFthat day+0.04%final price
IEFthe next day+0.16%final price
IEFtwo days later+0.34%final price
IEFthree days later+1.06%final price
IEFthree days earlier-0.31%final price
IEFfive days earlier-0.55%final price
JPMthat day+0.47%final price
JPMthe next day-0.44%final price
JPMtwo days later+0.70%final price
JPMthree days later+0.77%final price
JPMthree days earlier-1.04%final price
JPMfive days earlier-0.20%final price
UGA
SPY

How busy Taiwan Strait has been lately

Taiwan Strait has 48 linked stories in the last 7 days and 48 in the last 30 on the page that also carries “Mired in their worst losing streak in years, small caps could be the best way for investors to play crucial CPI data.” The recent pace is rising.

Who gains and who pays if Taiwan Strait stays in the story

Companies carried with this story

  • UGA United States Gasoline Fund

    For “Mired in their worst losing streak in years, small caps could be the best way for investors to play crucial CPI data,” United States Gasoline Fund (UGA) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Higher fuel and transport costs can propagate into commodity inputs, consumer margins, credit conditions, and interest-rate expectations

  • GSG iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust

    For “Mired in their worst losing streak in years, small caps could be the best way for investors to play crucial CPI data,” iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust (GSG) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Higher fuel and transport costs can propagate into commodity inputs, consumer margins, credit conditions, and interest-rate expectations

  • DBA Invesco Db Agriculture Fund

    For “Mired in their worst losing streak in years, small caps could be the best way for investors to play crucial CPI data,” Invesco Db Agriculture Fund (DBA) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Higher fuel and transport costs can propagate into commodity inputs, consumer margins, credit conditions, and interest-rate expectations

  • MOO Vaneck Etf Trust

    In “Mired in their worst losing streak in years, small caps could be the best way for investors to play crucial CPI data,” Vaneck Etf Trust (MOO) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Higher fuel and transport costs can propagate into commodity inputs, consumer margins, credit conditions, and interest-rate expectations

  • XME Spdr Series Trust

    For “Mired in their worst losing streak in years, small caps could be the best way for investors to play crucial CPI data,” Spdr Series Trust (XME) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Higher fuel and transport costs can propagate into commodity inputs, consumer margins, credit conditions, and interest-rate expectations

  • XLY Select Sector Spdr Tr

    For “Mired in their worst losing streak in years, small caps could be the best way for investors to play crucial CPI data,” Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLY) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Higher fuel and transport costs can propagate into commodity inputs, consumer margins, credit conditions, and interest-rate expectations

  • IWM Ishares Tr

    Ishares Tr (IWM) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 12 Oct 2026 story “Mired in their worst losing streak in years, small caps could be the best way for investors to play crucial CPI data.” Reason on file: Higher fuel and transport costs can propagate into commodity inputs, consumer margins, credit conditions, and interest-rate expectations

  • HYG Ishares Tr

    For “Mired in their worst losing streak in years, small caps could be the best way for investors to play crucial CPI data,” Ishares Tr (HYG) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Higher fuel and transport costs can propagate into commodity inputs, consumer margins, credit conditions, and interest-rate expectations

How a Taiwan Strait shock reaches United States Gasoline Fund (UGA)

“Mired in their worst losing streak in years, small caps could be the best way for investors to play crucial CPI data” (12 Oct 2026) reaches United States Gasoline Fund (UGA) through Taiwan Strait.

The link for United States Gasoline Fund (UGA) is this: Higher fuel and transport costs can propagate into commodity inputs, consumer margins, credit conditions, and interest-rate expectations

A second company, iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust (GSG), is listed for a different reason: Higher fuel and transport costs can propagate into commodity inputs, consumer margins, credit conditions, and interest-rate expectations

Dates in the story, and the United States Gasoline Fund (UGA) price range

DBA traded between 27.85 and 28.86 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 28.19. GSG traded between 35.09 and 37.22 across 10 sessions. The latest close on file is 37.04. UGA traded between 140.00 and 152.81 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 143.49.

A simple score for United States Gasoline Fund (UGA)

46 out of 100

“Mired in their worst losing streak in years, small caps could be the best way for investors to play crucial CPI data” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 17 linked companies.