Geopolitics Alpha

No one and done: The Fed will hike at least two times over the next year, according to CNBC survey

Published . Updated .

While higher oil is cited as a main reason for the change in view, roughly three-quarters of respondents see the inflation problem as broader than just energy prices.

Directly affected

  • No company is named in this report.

Indirectly affected

  • TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond

    Long-term bonds move when yields change

  • IEF iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond

    Treasury bonds move when yields change

  • SHY iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond

    Short-term bonds move when the Fed changes rates

  • SPY SPDR S&P 500

    Stocks move when the Fed changes the rate path

  • XOM Exxon Mobil

    Oil producers earn more when crude prices rise

  • CVX Chevron

    Oil producers earn more when crude prices rise

  • JPM JPMorgan Chase

    Bank profits move with lending and interest rates

  • BAC Bank of America

    Bank profits move with lending and interest rates

  • GS Goldman Sachs

    Bank profits move with lending and interest rates

  • XLF Financial Select Sector SPDR

    A fund of financial companies

Price reaction, T-5 to T+3

TickerT-5T-3T-1T0T+1T+2T+3
TLT———————
IEF———————
SHY———————
SPY———————
XOM———————
CVX———————
JPM———————
BAC———————
GS———————
XLF———————

While higher oil is cited as a main reason for the change in view, roughly three quarters of respondents see the inflation problem as broader than just energy prices.

Source: CNBC Top

The price since 15 Sep 2026: United States Gasoline Fund (UGA) versus the S&P 500

Since the first closing price after “No one and done: The Fed will hike at least two times over the next year, according to CNBC survey,” United States Gasoline Fund (UGA) is -1.45%. The S&P 500 fund (SPY) is +1.66% over the same days, a -3.11% difference versus the market.

UGA
SPY

Who gains and who loses around United States Gasoline Fund (UGA)

Companies tied to this story

  • UGA United States Gasoline Fund

    In “No one and done: The Fed will hike at least two times over the next year, according to CNBC survey,” United States Gasoline Fund (UGA) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Higher fuel and transport costs can propagate into commodity inputs, consumer margins, credit conditions, and interest-rate expectations

  • GSG iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust

    For “No one and done: The Fed will hike at least two times over the next year, according to CNBC survey,” iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust (GSG) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Higher fuel and transport costs can propagate into commodity inputs, consumer margins, credit conditions, and interest-rate expectations

  • HYG Ishares Tr

    In “No one and done: The Fed will hike at least two times over the next year, according to CNBC survey,” Ishares Tr (HYG) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Higher fuel and transport costs can propagate into commodity inputs, consumer margins, credit conditions, and interest-rate expectations

  • IEI Ishares Tr

    Ishares Tr (IEI) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 15 Sep 2026 story “No one and done: The Fed will hike at least two times over the next year, according to CNBC survey.” Reason on file: Higher fuel and transport costs can propagate into commodity inputs, consumer margins, credit conditions, and interest-rate expectations

  • DBA Invesco Db Agriculture Fund

    For “No one and done: The Fed will hike at least two times over the next year, according to CNBC survey,” Invesco Db Agriculture Fund (DBA) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Higher fuel and transport costs can propagate into commodity inputs, consumer margins, credit conditions, and interest-rate expectations

  • MOO Vaneck Etf Trust

    In “No one and done: The Fed will hike at least two times over the next year, according to CNBC survey,” Vaneck Etf Trust (MOO) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Higher fuel and transport costs can propagate into commodity inputs, consumer margins, credit conditions, and interest-rate expectations

  • XME Spdr Series Trust

    Spdr Series Trust (XME) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 15 Sep 2026 story “No one and done: The Fed will hike at least two times over the next year, according to CNBC survey.” Reason on file: Higher fuel and transport costs can propagate into commodity inputs, consumer margins, credit conditions, and interest-rate expectations

  • XLY Select Sector Spdr Tr

    In “No one and done: The Fed will hike at least two times over the next year, according to CNBC survey,” Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLY) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Higher fuel and transport costs can propagate into commodity inputs, consumer margins, credit conditions, and interest-rate expectations

United States Gasoline Fund (UGA)

The 15 Sep 2026 story “No one and done: The Fed will hike at least two times over the next year, according to CNBC survey” names United States Gasoline Fund (UGA) because of this story.

The link for United States Gasoline Fund (UGA) is this: Higher fuel and transport costs can propagate into commodity inputs, consumer margins, credit conditions, and interest-rate expectations

Also listed, iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust (GSG): Higher fuel and transport costs can propagate into commodity inputs, consumer margins, credit conditions, and interest-rate expectations

Dates and price levels for United States Gasoline Fund (UGA)

GSG traded between 35.09 and 37.22 across 10 sessions. The latest close on file is 37.04. HYG traded between 76.40 and 78.75 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 76.82. UGA traded between 140.00 and 152.81 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 143.49.

What the saved facts support for United States Gasoline Fund (UGA)

46 out of 100

“No one and done: The Fed will hike at least two times over the next year, according to CNBC survey” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 21 linked companies.