Geopolitics Alpha

Oil flows through Hormuz have largely recovered. Oil prices haven’t. David Lin’s explanation is that the real bottleneck now may be the cost of moving it. Shipping and transit costs remain extremely high, tanker attacks are still happening, and those costs event

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Oil flows through Hormuz have largely recovered. Oil prices haven’t. David Lin’s explanation is that the real bottleneck now may be the cost of moving it. Shipping and transit costs remain extremely high, tanker attacks are still happening, and those costs event X

Directly affected

  • No company is named in this report.

Indirectly affected

  • FRO Frontline

    Tanker operators earn more when freight rates spike

  • INSW International Seaways

    Tanker operators earn more when freight rates spike

  • DHT DHT Holdings

    Tanker operators earn more when freight rates spike

  • TNK Teekay Tankers

    Tanker operators earn more when freight rates spike

  • USO United States Oil Fund

    Tracks U.S. crude prices when Gulf supply is at risk

  • XLE Energy Select Sector SPDR

    Energy companies move with a Gulf supply scare

  • ZIM ZIM Integrated Shipping

    Container lines are exposed when a shipping lane is disrupted

  • MATX Matson

    Container lines are exposed when a shipping lane is disrupted

  • XOM Exxon Mobil

    Oil producers earn more when crude prices rise

  • DAL Delta Air Lines

    Airlines pay more for fuel when oil prices jump

Price reaction, T-5 to T+3

TickerT-5T-3T-1T0T+1T+2T+3
FRO———————
INSW———————
DHT———————
TNK———————
USO———————
XLE———————
ZIM———————
MATX———————
XOM———————
DAL———————

Oil flows through Hormuz have largely recovered. Oil prices haven’t. David Lin’s explanation is that the real bottleneck now may be the cost of moving it. Shipping and transit costs remain extremely high, tanker attacks are still happening…

Source: X

Where this story sits: Strait of Hormuz

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How solid the energy case looks

12 out of 100

“Oil flows through Hormuz have largely recovered. Oil prices haven’t. David Lin’s explanation is that the real bottleneck now may be the cost of moving it. Shipping and transit costs remain extremely high, tanker attacks are still happening, and those costs event” scores 12 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources.