Tong's Portfolio - Trump’s tariffs: Why the inflation shock never came

Published 12 Oct 2026, 01:10 UTC. Updated 12 Oct 2026, 07:00 UTC.

Tong's Portfolio - Trump’s tariffs: Why the inflation shock never came The Edge Malaysia

Directly affected

No company is named in this report.

Indirectly affected

XLE Energy Select Sector SPDR
Energy prices move when sanctioned supply is blocked
USO United States Oil Fund
This fund moves with oil prices
XOM Exxon Mobil
Oil producers move when sanctioned barrels leave the market
CVX Chevron
Oil producers move when sanctioned barrels leave the market
AAPL Apple
Sales and supply chains are exposed to a new tariff
NKE Nike
Sales and supply chains are exposed to a new tariff
SLB SLB
Oilfield work in sanctioned regions can be cut off
GLD SPDR Gold Shares
Gold is a usual haven when a conflict or sanction escalates
LMT Lockheed Martin
Defense contractors get more work when conflict spending rises
SPY SPDR S&P 500
The broad market moves when a major sanction lands

Price reaction, T-5 to T+3

Ticker	T-5	T-3	T-1	T0	T+1	T+2	T+3
XLE	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
USO	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
XOM	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
CVX	-2.61%	-3.22%	—	+1.43%	+2.75%	+4.76%	+3.48%
AAPL	-1.00%	+0.03%	—	+1.36%	+1.44%	+1.94%	+1.62%
NKE	-2.17%	-1.04%	—	+1.77%	+1.79%	+1.71%	+7.04%
SLB	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
GLD	-1.32%	-2.27%	—	-0.63%	-0.76%	-2.24%	-0.50%
LMT	-0.61%	-2.04%	—	+0.48%	-1.13%	+2.44%	+4.55%
SPY	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Tong's Portfolio - Trump’s tariffs: Why the inflation shock never came The Edge Malaysia

Source: The Edge Malaysia

Price since this story was published: United States Gasoline Fund (UGA)

Since the first closing price after “Tong's Portfolio - Trump’s tariffs: Why the inflation shock never came,” United States Gasoline Fund (UGA) is -1.70%. The S&P 500 fund (SPY) is -1.47% over the same days, a -0.23% difference versus the market.

Company	When	Move	Status
AAPL	that day	+1.36%	final price
AAPL	the next day	+1.44%	final price
AAPL	two days later	+1.94%	final price
AAPL	three days later	+1.62%	final price
AAPL	three days earlier	+0.03%	final price
AAPL	five days earlier	-1.00%	final price
CVX	that day	+1.43%	final price
CVX	the next day	+2.75%	final price
CVX	two days later	+4.76%	final price
CVX	three days later	+3.48%	final price
CVX	three days earlier	-3.22%	final price
CVX	five days earlier	-2.61%	final price
GLD	that day	-0.63%	final price
GLD	the next day	-0.76%	final price
GLD	two days later	-2.24%	final price
GLD	three days later	-0.50%	final price
GLD	three days earlier	-2.27%	final price
GLD	five days earlier	-1.32%	final price
LMT	that day	+0.48%	final price
LMT	the next day	-1.13%	final price
LMT	two days later	+2.44%	final price
LMT	three days later	+4.55%	final price
LMT	three days earlier	-2.04%	final price
LMT	five days earlier	-0.61%	final price
NKE	that day	+1.77%	final price
NKE	the next day	+1.79%	final price
NKE	two days later	+1.71%	final price
NKE	three days later	+7.04%	final price
NKE	three days earlier	-1.04%	final price
NKE	five days earlier	-2.17%	final price

UGA

SPY

Who gains and who loses around United States Gasoline Fund (UGA)

Companies carried with this story

UGA United States Gasoline Fund
In “Tong's Portfolio - Trump’s tariffs: Why the inflation shock never came,” United States Gasoline Fund (UGA) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Higher fuel and transport costs can propagate into commodity inputs, consumer margins, credit conditions, and interest-rate expectations
GSG iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust
For “Tong's Portfolio - Trump’s tariffs: Why the inflation shock never came,” iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust (GSG) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Higher fuel and transport costs can propagate into commodity inputs, consumer margins, credit conditions, and interest-rate expectations
DBA Invesco Db Agriculture Fund
In “Tong's Portfolio - Trump’s tariffs: Why the inflation shock never came,” Invesco Db Agriculture Fund (DBA) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Higher fuel and transport costs can propagate into commodity inputs, consumer margins, credit conditions, and interest-rate expectations
MOO Vaneck Etf Trust
In “Tong's Portfolio - Trump’s tariffs: Why the inflation shock never came,” Vaneck Etf Trust (MOO) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Higher fuel and transport costs can propagate into commodity inputs, consumer margins, credit conditions, and interest-rate expectations
XME Spdr Series Trust
In “Tong's Portfolio - Trump’s tariffs: Why the inflation shock never came,” Spdr Series Trust (XME) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Higher fuel and transport costs can propagate into commodity inputs, consumer margins, credit conditions, and interest-rate expectations
XLY Select Sector Spdr Tr
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLY) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 12 Oct 2026 story “Tong's Portfolio - Trump’s tariffs: Why the inflation shock never came.” Reason on file: Higher fuel and transport costs can propagate into commodity inputs, consumer margins, credit conditions, and interest-rate expectations
IWM Ishares Tr
Ishares Tr (IWM) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 12 Oct 2026 story “Tong's Portfolio - Trump’s tariffs: Why the inflation shock never came.” Reason on file: Higher fuel and transport costs can propagate into commodity inputs, consumer margins, credit conditions, and interest-rate expectations
HYG Ishares Tr
In “Tong's Portfolio - Trump’s tariffs: Why the inflation shock never came,” Ishares Tr (HYG) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Higher fuel and transport costs can propagate into commodity inputs, consumer margins, credit conditions, and interest-rate expectations

United States Gasoline Fund (UGA)

On 12 Oct 2026, “Tong's Portfolio - Trump’s tariffs: Why the inflation shock never came” is the story that connects United States Gasoline Fund (UGA) to this story.

What ties United States Gasoline Fund (UGA) to the headline is this: Higher fuel and transport costs can propagate into commodity inputs, consumer margins, credit conditions, and interest-rate expectations

A second company, iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust (GSG), is listed for a different reason: Higher fuel and transport costs can propagate into commodity inputs, consumer margins, credit conditions, and interest-rate expectations

Dates and price levels for United States Gasoline Fund (UGA)

DBA traded between 27.85 and 28.86 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 28.19. GSG traded between 35.09 and 37.22 across 10 sessions. The latest close on file is 37.04. UGA traded between 140.00 and 152.81 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 143.49.

A simple score for United States Gasoline Fund (UGA)

62 out of 100

“Tong's Portfolio - Trump’s tariffs: Why the inflation shock never came” scores 62 out of 100. The score uses 3 sources, and 14 linked companies.