Geopolitics Alpha

Trump’s Diesel Deal is a Gift to Putin, but Ukraine and Europe Have Cards

Published . Updated .

Trump’s Diesel Deal is a Gift to Putin, but Ukraine and Europe Have Cards Policy Magazine

Directly affected

  • No company is named in this report.

Indirectly affected

  • LMT Lockheed Martin

    Defense contractors get more work when conflict spending rises

  • RTX RTX

    Defense contractors get more work when conflict spending rises

  • NOC Northrop Grumman

    Defense contractors get more work when conflict spending rises

  • XLE Energy Select Sector SPDR

    Energy prices move when Russian supply is at risk

  • GD General Dynamics

    Defense contractors get more work when conflict spending rises

  • ITA iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense

    A fund of aerospace and defense companies

  • USO United States Oil Fund

    This fund moves with oil prices

  • WEAT Teucrium Wheat

    Wheat prices rise when Black Sea grain is disrupted

  • MOS Mosaic

    Fertilizer makers move with Russian supply

  • CF CF Industries

    Fertilizer makers move with Russian supply

Price reaction, T-5 to T+3

TickerT-5T-3T-1T0T+1T+2T+3
LMT———————
RTX———————
NOC———————
XLE———————
GD———————
ITA———————
USO———————
WEAT———————
MOS———————
CF+4.04%+2.72%—+2.72%+5.11%+7.12%+7.44%

Trump’s Diesel Deal is a Gift to Putin, but Ukraine and Europe Have Cards Policy Magazine

Source: Policy Magazine

United States Gasoline Fund (UGA) since this story, compared with the market

Since the first closing price after “Trump’s Diesel Deal is a Gift to Putin, but Ukraine and Europe Have Cards,” United States Gasoline Fund (UGA) is -3.52%. The S&P 500 fund (SPY) is -1.47% over the same days, a -2.05% difference versus the market.

CompanyWhenMoveStatus
J P Morgan Exchange-Traded Fd Tr Betabuilders Europe Etf New (BBEU)that day-0.44%final price
J P Morgan Exchange-Traded Fd Tr Betabuilders Europe Etf New (BBEU)the next day+0.21%final price
J P Morgan Exchange-Traded Fd Tr Betabuilders Europe Etf New (BBEU)two days later-0.12%final price
J P Morgan Exchange-Traded Fd Tr Betabuilders Europe Etf New (BBEU)three days later+1.29%final price
J P Morgan Exchange-Traded Fd Tr Betabuilders Europe Etf New (BBEU)three days earlier-0.57%final price
J P Morgan Exchange-Traded Fd Tr Betabuilders Europe Etf New (BBEU)five days earlier+0.35%final price
CFthat day+2.72%final price
CFthe next day+5.11%final price
CFtwo days later+7.12%final price
CFthree days later+7.44%final price
CFthree days earlier+2.72%final price
CFfive days earlier+4.04%final price
Invesco Db Agriculture Fund (DBA)that day+0.37%final price
Invesco Db Agriculture Fund (DBA)the next day+0.35%final price
Invesco Db Agriculture Fund (DBA)two days later-0.23%final price
Invesco Db Agriculture Fund (DBA)three days later-0.11%final price
Invesco Db Agriculture Fund (DBA)three days earlier+0.60%final price
Invesco Db Agriculture Fund (DBA)five days earlier+0.44%final price
Wisdomtree Europe Smallcap Dividend Fund (DFE)that day-0.63%final price
Wisdomtree Europe Smallcap Dividend Fund (DFE)the next day+0.53%final price
Wisdomtree Europe Smallcap Dividend Fund (DFE)two days later0.00%final price
Wisdomtree Europe Smallcap Dividend Fund (DFE)three days later+1.05%final price
Wisdomtree Europe Smallcap Dividend Fund (DFE)three days earlier-1.00%final price
Wisdomtree Europe Smallcap Dividend Fund (DFE)five days earlier+0.25%final price
First Trust Europe Alphadex Fund (FEP)that day-0.07%final price
First Trust Europe Alphadex Fund (FEP)the next day+0.65%final price
First Trust Europe Alphadex Fund (FEP)two days later+0.13%final price
First Trust Europe Alphadex Fund (FEP)three days later+1.21%final price
First Trust Europe Alphadex Fund (FEP)three days earlier-0.74%final price
First Trust Europe Alphadex Fund (FEP)five days earlier+0.29%final price
UGA
SPY

Who gains and who loses around United States Gasoline Fund (UGA)

Companies carried with this story

  • UGA United States Gasoline Fund

    For “Trump’s Diesel Deal is a Gift to Putin, but Ukraine and Europe Have Cards,” United States Gasoline Fund (UGA) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Higher fuel and transport costs can propagate into commodity inputs, consumer margins, credit conditions, and interest-rate expectations

  • GSG iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust

    iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust (GSG) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 11 Oct 2026 story “Trump’s Diesel Deal is a Gift to Putin, but Ukraine and Europe Have Cards.” Reason on file: Higher fuel and transport costs can propagate into commodity inputs, consumer margins, credit conditions, and interest-rate expectations

  • DBA Invesco Db Agriculture Fund

    In “Trump’s Diesel Deal is a Gift to Putin, but Ukraine and Europe Have Cards,” Invesco Db Agriculture Fund (DBA) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Higher fuel and transport costs can propagate into commodity inputs, consumer margins, credit conditions, and interest-rate expectations

  • MOO Vaneck Etf Trust

    In “Trump’s Diesel Deal is a Gift to Putin, but Ukraine and Europe Have Cards,” Vaneck Etf Trust (MOO) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Higher fuel and transport costs can propagate into commodity inputs, consumer margins, credit conditions, and interest-rate expectations

  • XME Spdr Series Trust

    In “Trump’s Diesel Deal is a Gift to Putin, but Ukraine and Europe Have Cards,” Spdr Series Trust (XME) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Higher fuel and transport costs can propagate into commodity inputs, consumer margins, credit conditions, and interest-rate expectations

  • XLY Select Sector Spdr Tr

    Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLY) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 11 Oct 2026 story “Trump’s Diesel Deal is a Gift to Putin, but Ukraine and Europe Have Cards.” Reason on file: Higher fuel and transport costs can propagate into commodity inputs, consumer margins, credit conditions, and interest-rate expectations

  • IWM Ishares Tr

    Ishares Tr (IWM) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 11 Oct 2026 story “Trump’s Diesel Deal is a Gift to Putin, but Ukraine and Europe Have Cards.” Reason on file: Higher fuel and transport costs can propagate into commodity inputs, consumer margins, credit conditions, and interest-rate expectations

  • HYG Ishares Tr

    In “Trump’s Diesel Deal is a Gift to Putin, but Ukraine and Europe Have Cards,” Ishares Tr (HYG) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Higher fuel and transport costs can propagate into commodity inputs, consumer margins, credit conditions, and interest-rate expectations

United States Gasoline Fund (UGA)

The 11 Oct 2026 story “Trump’s Diesel Deal is a Gift to Putin, but Ukraine and Europe Have Cards” names United States Gasoline Fund (UGA) because of this story.

For United States Gasoline Fund (UGA), the reason on file says Higher fuel and transport costs can propagate into commodity inputs, consumer margins, credit conditions, and interest-rate expectations

iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust (GSG) is here too. Its reason reads: Higher fuel and transport costs can propagate into commodity inputs, consumer margins, credit conditions, and interest-rate expectations

Dates in the story, and the United States Gasoline Fund (UGA) price range

DBA traded between 27.85 and 28.86 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 28.19. GSG traded between 35.09 and 37.22 across 10 sessions. The latest close on file is 37.04. UGA traded between 140.00 and 152.81 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 143.49.

A simple score for United States Gasoline Fund (UGA)

46 out of 100

“Trump’s Diesel Deal is a Gift to Putin, but Ukraine and Europe Have Cards” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 15 linked companies.