‘We were wrong.’ Why Morgan Stanley changed its tune on the U.S. dollar — and what it expects now.

Published 25 Sep 2026, 10:50 UTC. Updated 25 Sep 2026, 16:12 UTC.

Rising bond yields and expected Fed rate hikes have wrecked the bank’s forecast for the buck

Directly affected

MS Morgan Stanley
Named in this report.

Indirectly affected

TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond
Long-term bonds move when yields change
IEF iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond
Treasury bonds move when yields change
SHY iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond
Short-term bonds move when the Fed changes rates
SPY SPDR S&P 500
Stocks move when the Fed changes the rate path
JPM JPMorgan Chase
Bank profits move with lending and interest rates
BAC Bank of America
Bank profits move with lending and interest rates
GS Goldman Sachs
Bank profits move with lending and interest rates
XLF Financial Select Sector SPDR
A fund of financial companies
KRE SPDR S&P Regional Banking
Regional banks are sensitive to interest rates
ALLY ALLY FINANCIAL INC
GA selected ALLY as a RELATED security because its canonical security name directly matches this event's themes: financial. This is an explainable DERIVED market relationship, not a claim that the security was named in the source article.

Price reaction, T-5 to T+3

Ticker	T-5	T-3	T-1	T0	T+1	T+2	T+3
MS	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
TLT	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
IEF	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
SHY	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
SPY	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
JPM	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
BAC	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
GS	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
XLF	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
KRE	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
ALLY	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rising bond yields and expected Fed rate hikes have wrecked the bank’s forecast for the buck

Source: MarketWatch

Price since this story was published: Morgan Stanley (MS)

Since the first closing price after “‘We were wrong.’ Why Morgan Stanley changed its tune on the U.S. dollar — and what it expects now.,” Morgan Stanley (MS) is -7.82%. The S&P 500 fund (SPY) is +0.15% over the same days, a -7.96% difference versus the market.

SPY

Filings that name Morgan Stanley (MS) around 25 Sep 2026

Rohit Khanna sell Bank Of America (BAC) ($1,001 - $15,000). That is 16 days before publication, inside 30 days. The filing is listed beside the story “‘We were wrong.’ Why Morgan Stanley changed its tune on the U.S. dollar — and what it expects now..”

Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).

Who gains and who loses around Morgan Stanley (MS)

Companies mentioned with this story

MS Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley (MS) is linked, with no stored direction, high confidence in the 25 Sep 2026 story “‘We were wrong.’ Why Morgan Stanley changed its tune on the U.S. dollar — and what it expects now..” Reason on file: The reported development directly names MORGAN STANLEY in the headline; GA resolved that company to MS
ALLY Ally Financial
In “‘We were wrong.’ Why Morgan Stanley changed its tune on the U.S. dollar — and what it expects now.,” Ally Financial (ALLY) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: GA selected ALLY as a RELATED security because its canonical security name directly matches this event's themes: financial. This is an explainable DERIVED market relationship, not a claim that the security was named in the source article
BAC Bank Of America
Bank Of America (BAC) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 25 Sep 2026 story “‘We were wrong.’ Why Morgan Stanley changed its tune on the U.S. dollar — and what it expects now..” Reason on file: GA selected BAC as a RELATED security because its canonical security name directly matches this event's themes: bank. This is an explainable DERIVED market relationship, not a claim that the security was named in the source article
BMO Bank Of Montreal /Can/
In “‘We were wrong.’ Why Morgan Stanley changed its tune on the U.S. dollar — and what it expects now.,” Bank Of Montreal /Can/ (BMO) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: GA selected BMO as a RELATED security because its canonical security name directly matches this event's themes: bank. This is an explainable DERIVED market relationship, not a claim that the security was named in the source article
CM Canadian Imperial Bank Of Commerce /Can/
Canadian Imperial Bank Of Commerce /Can/ (CM) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 25 Sep 2026 story “‘We were wrong.’ Why Morgan Stanley changed its tune on the U.S. dollar — and what it expects now..” Reason on file: GA selected CM as a RELATED security because its canonical security name directly matches this event's themes: bank. This is an explainable DERIVED market relationship, not a claim that the security was named in the source article
CRBG Corebridge Financial
For “‘We were wrong.’ Why Morgan Stanley changed its tune on the U.S. dollar — and what it expects now.,” Corebridge Financial (CRBG) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: GA selected CRBG as a RELATED security because its canonical security name directly matches this event's themes: financial. This is an explainable DERIVED market relationship, not a claim that the security was named in the source article
EFC Ellington Financial
For “‘We were wrong.’ Why Morgan Stanley changed its tune on the U.S. dollar — and what it expects now.,” Ellington Financial (EFC) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: GA selected EFC as a RELATED security because its canonical security name directly matches this event's themes: financial. This is an explainable DERIVED market relationship, not a claim that the security was named in the source article

Morgan Stanley (MS)

“‘We were wrong.’ Why Morgan Stanley changed its tune on the U.S. dollar — and what it expects now.” (25 Sep 2026) reaches Morgan Stanley (MS) through this story.

What ties Morgan Stanley (MS) to the headline is this: The reported development directly names MORGAN STANLEY in the headline; GA resolved that company to MS

Also listed, Ally Financial (ALLY): GA selected ALLY as a RELATED security because its canonical security name directly matches this event's themes: financial. This is an explainable DERIVED market relationship, not a claim that the security was named in the source article

Dates in the story, and the Morgan Stanley (MS) price range

ALLY traded between 36.18 and 40.33 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 37.53. BAC traded between 49.26 and 58.11 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 50.39. MS traded between 176.46 and 205.76 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 178.53.

How strong the case is around Morgan Stanley (MS)

46 out of 100

“‘We were wrong.’ Why Morgan Stanley changed its tune on the U.S. dollar — and what it expects now.” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 7 linked companies.