What history says about longer-term bond yields after the first Fed hike
Published . Updated .
If the Federal Reserve hikes interest rates in an effort to slow down the rapid rise in longer-term yields, history shows it probably won’t be a success.
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond
Long-term bonds move when yields change
- IEF iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond
Treasury bonds move when yields change
- SHY iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond
Short-term bonds move when the Fed changes rates
- SPY SPDR S&P 500
Stocks move when the Fed changes the rate path
- JPM JPMorgan Chase
Bank profits move with lending and interest rates
- BAC Bank of America
Bank profits move with lending and interest rates
- GS Goldman Sachs
Bank profits move with lending and interest rates
- XLF Financial Select Sector SPDR
A fund of financial companies
- KRE SPDR S&P Regional Banking
Regional banks are sensitive to interest rates
- TIP ISHARES TR
Major monetary and inflation developments can transmit across duration, inflation-linked Treasuries, gold, and dollar proxies; no direction is implied by the link itself.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
If the Federal Reserve hikes interest rates in an effort to slow down the rapid rise in longer-term yields, history shows it probably won’t be a success.
Source: MarketWatch
The price since 16 Sep 2026: Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLF) versus the S&P 500
Since the first closing price after “What history says about longer-term bond yields after the first Fed hike,” Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLF) is -1.44%. The S&P 500 fund (SPY) is +0.52% over the same days, a -1.96% difference versus the market.
Who gains and who loses around Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLF)
Companies tied to this story
- XLF Select Sector Spdr Tr
In “What history says about longer-term bond yields after the first Fed hike,” Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLF) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Rate-policy changes can alter funding costs, net-interest margins, and financial-sector valuation
- KRE Spdr Series Trust
In “What history says about longer-term bond yields after the first Fed hike,” Spdr Series Trust (KRE) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Rate-policy changes can alter funding costs, net-interest margins, and financial-sector valuation
- TLT Ishares Tr
In “What history says about longer-term bond yields after the first Fed hike,” Ishares Tr (TLT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Major monetary and inflation developments can transmit across duration, inflation-linked Treasuries, gold, and dollar proxies; no direction is implied by the link itself
- IEF Ishares Tr
In “What history says about longer-term bond yields after the first Fed hike,” Ishares Tr (IEF) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Major monetary and inflation developments can transmit across duration, inflation-linked Treasuries, gold, and dollar proxies; no direction is implied by the link itself
- TIP Ishares Tr
For “What history says about longer-term bond yields after the first Fed hike,” Ishares Tr (TIP) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Major monetary and inflation developments can transmit across duration, inflation-linked Treasuries, gold, and dollar proxies; no direction is implied by the link itself
- GLD Spdr Gold Trust
For “What history says about longer-term bond yields after the first Fed hike,” Spdr Gold Trust (GLD) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Major monetary and inflation developments can transmit across duration, inflation-linked Treasuries, gold, and dollar proxies; no direction is implied by the link itself
- UUP Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund
Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 16 Sep 2026 story “What history says about longer-term bond yields after the first Fed hike.” Reason on file: Major monetary and inflation developments can transmit across duration, inflation-linked Treasuries, gold, and dollar proxies; no direction is implied by the link itself
- AA Alcoa
In “What history says about longer-term bond yields after the first Fed hike,” Alcoa (AA) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: GA selected AA as a RELATED security because its curated list / industry / sector context matches this event (curated-list=history). This is an explainable DERIVED market relationship, not a claim that the security was named in the source article
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLF)
The 16 Sep 2026 story “What history says about longer-term bond yields after the first Fed hike” names Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLF) because of this story.
The link for Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLF) is this: Rate-policy changes can alter funding costs, net-interest margins, and financial-sector valuation
Spdr Series Trust (KRE) is here too. Its reason reads: Rate-policy changes can alter funding costs, net-interest margins, and financial-sector valuation
Dates in the story, and the Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLF) price range
KRE traded between 67.80 and 72.65 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 69.27. TLT traded between 76.44 and 81.94 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 79.46. XLF traded between 52.82 and 56.03 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 55.07.
How strong the case is around Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLF)
46 out of 100
“What history says about longer-term bond yields after the first Fed hike” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 13 linked companies.