Geopolitics Alpha

Why mortgage bonds are set to deteriorate, and possibly hit the whole market, according to this Wall Street expert

Published . Updated .

A flattening Treasury yield curve is part of the problem for mortgage-backed securities, says Harley Bassman.

Directly affected

  • No company is named in this report.

Indirectly affected

  • TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond

    Long-term bonds move when yields change

  • IEF iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond

    Treasury bonds move when yields change

  • SHY iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond

    Short-term bonds move when the Fed changes rates

  • SPY SPDR S&P 500

    Stocks move when the Fed changes the rate path

  • JPM JPMorgan Chase

    Bank profits move with lending and interest rates

  • BAC Bank of America

    Bank profits move with lending and interest rates

  • GS Goldman Sachs

    Bank profits move with lending and interest rates

  • XLF Financial Select Sector SPDR

    A fund of financial companies

  • KRE SPDR S&P Regional Banking

    Regional banks are sensitive to interest rates

  • RWX STATE STREET SPDR DOW JONES INTERNATIONAL REAL ESTATE ETF

    GA selected RWX as a RELATED security because its canonical security name directly matches this event's themes: real estate, street. This is an explainable DERIVED market relationship, not a claim that the security was named in the source article.

Price reaction, T-5 to T+3

TickerT-5T-3T-1T0T+1T+2T+3
TLT———————
IEF———————
SHY———————
SPY———————
JPM———————
BAC———————
GS———————
XLF———————
KRE———————
RWX———————

A flattening Treasury yield curve is part of the problem for mortgage-backed securities, says Harley Bassman.

Source: MarketWatch

Price since this story was published: State Street Spdr Dow Jones International Real Estate Etf (RWX)

Since the first closing price after “Why mortgage bonds are set to deteriorate, and possibly hit the whole market, according to this Wall Street expert,” State Street Spdr Dow Jones International Real Estate Etf (RWX) is -3.37%. The S&P 500 fund (SPY) is -0.89% over the same days, a -2.47% difference versus the market.

RWX
SPY

Who gains and who loses around State Street Spdr Dow Jones International Real Estate Etf (RWX)

Companies mentioned with this story

  • RWX State Street Spdr Dow Jones International Real Estate Etf

    In “Why mortgage bonds are set to deteriorate, and possibly hit the whole market, according to this Wall Street expert,” State Street Spdr Dow Jones International Real Estate Etf (RWX) is linked, with no stored direction, high confidence. Reason on file: GA selected RWX as a RELATED security because its canonical security name directly matches this event's themes: real estate, street. This is an explainable DERIVED market relationship, not a claim that the security was named in the source article

  • ARI Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance

    In “Why mortgage bonds are set to deteriorate, and possibly hit the whole market, according to this Wall Street expert,” Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (ARI) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: GA selected ARI as a RELATED security because its canonical security name directly matches this event's themes: real estate. This is an explainable DERIVED market relationship, not a claim that the security was named in the source article

  • KREF KKR Real Estate Finance Trust

    For “Why mortgage bonds are set to deteriorate, and possibly hit the whole market, according to this Wall Street expert,” KKR Real Estate Finance Trust (KREF) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: GA selected KREF as a RELATED security because its canonical security name directly matches this event's themes: real estate. This is an explainable DERIVED market relationship, not a claim that the security was named in the source article

  • REFI Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance

    Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance (REFI) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 18 Sep 2026 story “Why mortgage bonds are set to deteriorate, and possibly hit the whole market, according to this Wall Street expert.” Reason on file: GA selected REFI as a RELATED security because its canonical security name directly matches this event's themes: real estate. This is an explainable DERIVED market relationship, not a claim that the security was named in the source article

  • GHI Greystone Housing Impact Investors

    In “Why mortgage bonds are set to deteriorate, and possibly hit the whole market, according to this Wall Street expert,” Greystone Housing Impact Investors (GHI) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: GA selected GHI as a RELATED security because its canonical security name directly matches this event's themes: housing. This is an explainable DERIVED market relationship, not a claim that the security was named in the source article

  • LRE Lead Real Estate

    In “Why mortgage bonds are set to deteriorate, and possibly hit the whole market, according to this Wall Street expert,” Lead Real Estate (LRE) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: GA selected LRE as a RELATED security because its canonical security name directly matches this event's themes: real estate. This is an explainable DERIVED market relationship, not a claim that the security was named in the source article

  • TLT Ishares Tr

    Ishares Tr (TLT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 18 Sep 2026 story “Why mortgage bonds are set to deteriorate, and possibly hit the whole market, according to this Wall Street expert.” Reason on file: Major monetary and inflation developments can transmit across duration, inflation-linked Treasuries, gold, and dollar proxies; no direction is implied by the link itself

  • IEF Ishares Tr

    For “Why mortgage bonds are set to deteriorate, and possibly hit the whole market, according to this Wall Street expert,” Ishares Tr (IEF) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Major monetary and inflation developments can transmit across duration, inflation-linked Treasuries, gold, and dollar proxies; no direction is implied by the link itself

State Street Spdr Dow Jones International Real Estate Etf (RWX)

The 18 Sep 2026 story “Why mortgage bonds are set to deteriorate, and possibly hit the whole market, according to this Wall Street expert” names State Street Spdr Dow Jones International Real Estate Etf (RWX) because of this story.

The link for State Street Spdr Dow Jones International Real Estate Etf (RWX) is this: GA selected RWX as a RELATED security because its canonical security name directly matches this event's themes: real estate, street. This is an explainable DERIVED market relationship, not a claim that the security was named in the source article

A second company, Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (ARI), is listed for a different reason: GA selected ARI as a RELATED security because its canonical security name directly matches this event's themes: real estate. This is an explainable DERIVED market relationship, not a claim that the security was named in the source article

Price levels for State Street Spdr Dow Jones International Real Estate Etf (RWX)

ARI traded between 6.12 and 6.50 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 6.33. KREF traded between 5.51 and 6.85 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 5.69. RWX traded between 24.89 and 26.33 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 25.27.

How strong the case is around State Street Spdr Dow Jones International Real Estate Etf (RWX)

46 out of 100

“Why mortgage bonds are set to deteriorate, and possibly hit the whole market, according to this Wall Street expert” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 11 linked companies.