‘Clear and present danger’: fuel prices could rise by 30c a litre across Australia under IMF scenario
Published . Updated .
IMF’s World Economic Outlook shows how a worsening Middle East crisis could affect global growth and inflation Follow our Australia politics live blog for latest updates Get our breaking news email , free app or daily news podcast An International Monetary Fund scenario where global oil prices jump to US$130 a barrel over coming months could push Australian petrol prices up by another 30 cents per litre and pile pressure on the Reserve Bank to hike interest rates, economists say. In its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF modelled the impact on global growth and inflation from a worsening Middle East crisis that extended into next year, highlighting the “clear and present danger” to a resilient global economy from turmoil in commodity and bond markets. Continue reading...
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond
Long-term bonds move when yields change
- IEF iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond
Treasury bonds move when yields change
- SHY iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond
Short-term bonds move when the Fed changes rates
- SPY SPDR S&P 500
Stocks move when the Fed changes the rate path
- XOM Exxon Mobil
Oil producers earn more when crude prices rise
- CVX Chevron
Oil producers earn more when crude prices rise
- JPM JPMorgan Chase
Bank profits move with lending and interest rates
- BAC Bank of America
Bank profits move with lending and interest rates
- GS Goldman Sachs
Bank profits move with lending and interest rates
- XLF Financial Select Sector SPDR
A fund of financial companies
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
IMF’s World Economic Outlook shows how a worsening Middle East crisis could affect global growth and inflation An International Monetary Fund scenario where global oil prices jump to $US130 a barrel over coming months could push Australian…
Source: The Guardian
United States Oil Fund (USO) compared with energy stocks (XLE) since 13 Oct 2026
Since the first closing price after “‘Clear and present danger’: fuel prices could rise by 30c a litre across Australia under IMF scenario,” United States Oil Fund (USO) is +4.67%. The S&P 500 fund (SPY) is -0.40% over the same days, a +5.06% difference versus the market. energy stocks (XLE) is +0.27%, a +4.40% difference versus that group of stocks.
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bank Of America (BAC) | that day | -1.14% | final price |
| Bank Of America (BAC) | the next day | -5.79% | final price |
| Bank Of America (BAC) | two days later | -5.30% | final price |
| Bank Of America (BAC) | three days later | -6.13% | final price |
| Bank Of America (BAC) | three days earlier | -1.80% | final price |
| Bank Of America (BAC) | five days earlier | -0.84% | final price |
| COP | that day | +2.44% | final price |
| COP | the next day | +3.47% | final price |
| COP | two days later | +3.03% | final price |
| COP | three days later | +6.51% | final price |
| COP | three days earlier | -2.44% | final price |
| COP | five days earlier | -5.98% | final price |
| CVX | that day | +1.30% | final price |
| CVX | the next day | +3.29% | final price |
| CVX | two days later | +2.02% | final price |
| CVX | three days later | +4.63% | final price |
| CVX | three days earlier | -1.61% | final price |
| CVX | five days earlier | -3.45% | final price |
| GS | that day | -0.25% | final price |
| GS | the next day | -1.74% | final price |
| GS | two days later | -0.35% | final price |
| GS | three days later | -1.54% | final price |
| GS | three days earlier | -1.38% | final price |
| GS | five days earlier | +0.35% | final price |
| IEF | that day | +0.12% | final price |
| IEF | the next day | +0.30% | final price |
| IEF | two days later | +1.02% | final price |
| IEF | three days later | +1.10% | final price |
| IEF | three days earlier | +0.01% | final price |
| IEF | five days earlier | -0.35% | final price |
Where this story sits: Middle East
Middle East has 0 linked stories in the last 7 days and 0 in the last 30 on the page that also carries “‘Clear and present danger’: fuel prices could rise by 30c a litre across Australia under IMF scenario.”
Who gains and who pays if Middle East stays in the story
Companies tied to this story
- USO United States Oil Fund
For “‘Clear and present danger’: fuel prices could rise by 30c a litre across Australia under IMF scenario,” United States Oil Fund (USO) is linked, with no stored direction, high confidence. Reason on file: Oil-supply or crude-price developments can transmit through WTI/Brent proxies and energy producer earnings expectations
- BNO United States Brent Oil Fund
United States Brent Oil Fund (BNO) is linked, with no stored direction, high confidence in the 13 Oct 2026 story “‘Clear and present danger’: fuel prices could rise by 30c a litre across Australia under IMF scenario.” Reason on file: Oil-supply or crude-price developments can transmit through WTI/Brent proxies and energy producer earnings expectations
- XLE Select Sector Spdr Tr
In “‘Clear and present danger’: fuel prices could rise by 30c a litre across Australia under IMF scenario,” Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) is linked, with no stored direction, high confidence. Reason on file: Oil-supply or crude-price developments can transmit through WTI/Brent proxies and energy producer earnings expectations
- XOP State Street Spdr S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Etf
State Street Spdr S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Etf (XOP) is linked, with no stored direction, high confidence in the 13 Oct 2026 story “‘Clear and present danger’: fuel prices could rise by 30c a litre across Australia under IMF scenario.” Reason on file: Oil-supply or crude-price developments can transmit through WTI/Brent proxies and energy producer earnings expectations
- IEI Ishares Tr
For “‘Clear and present danger’: fuel prices could rise by 30c a litre across Australia under IMF scenario,” Ishares Tr (IEI) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Higher fuel and transport costs can propagate into commodity inputs, consumer margins, credit conditions, and interest-rate expectations
- UGA United States Gasoline Fund
For “‘Clear and present danger’: fuel prices could rise by 30c a litre across Australia under IMF scenario,” United States Gasoline Fund (UGA) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Higher fuel and transport costs can propagate into commodity inputs, consumer margins, credit conditions, and interest-rate expectations
- GSG iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust
For “‘Clear and present danger’: fuel prices could rise by 30c a litre across Australia under IMF scenario,” iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust (GSG) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Higher fuel and transport costs can propagate into commodity inputs, consumer margins, credit conditions, and interest-rate expectations
- DBA Invesco Db Agriculture Fund
Invesco Db Agriculture Fund (DBA) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 13 Oct 2026 story “‘Clear and present danger’: fuel prices could rise by 30c a litre across Australia under IMF scenario.” Reason on file: Higher fuel and transport costs can propagate into commodity inputs, consumer margins, credit conditions, and interest-rate expectations
How a Middle East shock reaches United States Oil Fund (USO)
The 13 Oct 2026 story “‘Clear and present danger’: fuel prices could rise by 30c a litre across Australia under IMF scenario” names United States Oil Fund (USO) because of Middle East.
For United States Oil Fund (USO), the reason on file says Oil-supply or crude-price developments can transmit through WTI/Brent proxies and energy producer earnings expectations
United States Brent Oil Fund (BNO) is here too. Its reason reads: Oil-supply or crude-price developments can transmit through WTI/Brent proxies and energy producer earnings expectations
Dates and price levels for United States Oil Fund (USO)
BNO traded between 57.39 and 67.79 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 67.10. USO traded between 141.82 and 162.99 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 160.80. XLE traded between 60.95 and 68.51 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 67.80.
What the saved facts support for United States Oil Fund (USO)
46 out of 100
“‘Clear and present danger’: fuel prices could rise by 30c a litre across Australia under IMF scenario” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 19 linked companies.