Geopolitics Alpha

Crude oil prices and refinery margins generally increased throughout the third quarter

Published . Updated .

Petroleum markets in the third quarter of 2026 (3Q26) were characterized by increasing prices for crude oil and petroleum products amid persistent conflict in the Middle East.

Directly affected

  • No company is named in this report.

Indirectly affected

  • LMT Lockheed Martin

    Defense contractors get more work when conflict spending rises

  • RTX RTX

    Defense contractors get more work when conflict spending rises

  • NOC Northrop Grumman

    Defense contractors get more work when conflict spending rises

  • GD General Dynamics

    Defense contractors get more work when conflict spending rises

  • XOM Exxon Mobil

    Oil producers earn more when crude prices rise

  • CVX Chevron

    Oil producers earn more when crude prices rise

  • ITA iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense

    A fund of aerospace and defense companies

  • BA Boeing

    Defense and aerospace orders move with conflict spending

  • LHX L3Harris

    Defense contractors get more work when conflict spending rises

  • HII Huntington Ingalls

    Shipyards benefit when naval spending rises

Price reaction, T-5 to T+3

TickerT-5T-3T-1T0T+1T+2T+3
LMT———————
RTX———————
NOC———————
GD———————
XOM———————
CVX———————
ITA———————
BA———————
LHX———————
HII———————

United States Oil Fund (USO) compared with energy stocks (XLE) since 5 Oct 2026

Since the first closing price after “Crude oil prices and refinery margins generally increased throughout the third quarter,” United States Oil Fund (USO) is +10.97%. The S&P 500 fund (SPY) is -1.60% over the same days, a +12.58% difference versus the market. energy stocks (XLE) is +6.39%, a +4.59% difference versus that group of stocks.

USO
SPY
XLE

Disclosure records for United States Oil Fund (USO) within two months of 5 Oct 2026

Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).

Middle East on the map for this story

Middle East has 0 linked stories in the last 7 days and 0 in the last 30 on the page that also carries “Crude oil prices and refinery margins generally increased throughout the third quarter.”

Companies in energy around United States Oil Fund (USO)

Companies tied to this story

  • USO United States Oil Fund

    For “Crude oil prices and refinery margins generally increased throughout the third quarter,” United States Oil Fund (USO) is linked, with no stored direction, high confidence. Reason on file: Oil-supply or crude-price developments can transmit through WTI/Brent proxies and energy producer earnings expectations

  • BNO United States Brent Oil Fund

    In “Crude oil prices and refinery margins generally increased throughout the third quarter,” United States Brent Oil Fund (BNO) is linked, with no stored direction, high confidence. Reason on file: Oil-supply or crude-price developments can transmit through WTI/Brent proxies and energy producer earnings expectations

  • XLE Select Sector Spdr Tr

    Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) is linked, with no stored direction, high confidence in the 5 Oct 2026 story “Crude oil prices and refinery margins generally increased throughout the third quarter.” Reason on file: Oil-supply or crude-price developments can transmit through WTI/Brent proxies and energy producer earnings expectations

  • XOP State Street Spdr S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Etf

    State Street Spdr S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Etf (XOP) is linked, with no stored direction, high confidence in the 5 Oct 2026 story “Crude oil prices and refinery margins generally increased throughout the third quarter.” Reason on file: Oil-supply or crude-price developments can transmit through WTI/Brent proxies and energy producer earnings expectations

  • AEIS Advanced Energy Industries

    Advanced Energy Industries (AEIS) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 5 Oct 2026 story “Crude oil prices and refinery margins generally increased throughout the third quarter.” Reason on file: GA selected AEIS as a RELATED security because its canonical security name directly matches this event's themes: energy. This is an explainable DERIVED market relationship, not a claim that the security was named in the source article

  • AMPY Amplify Energy

    In “Crude oil prices and refinery margins generally increased throughout the third quarter,” Amplify Energy (AMPY) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: GA selected AMPY as a RELATED security because its canonical security name directly matches this event's themes: energy. This is an explainable DERIVED market relationship, not a claim that the security was named in the source article

  • ATO Atmos Energy

    For “Crude oil prices and refinery margins generally increased throughout the third quarter,” Atmos Energy (ATO) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: GA selected ATO as a RELATED security because its canonical security name directly matches this event's themes: energy. This is an explainable DERIVED market relationship, not a claim that the security was named in the source article

  • BE Bloom Energy

    For “Crude oil prices and refinery margins generally increased throughout the third quarter,” Bloom Energy (BE) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: GA selected BE as a RELATED security because its canonical security name directly matches this event's themes: energy. This is an explainable DERIVED market relationship, not a claim that the security was named in the source article

How energy news reaches United States Oil Fund (USO)

“Crude oil prices and refinery margins generally increased throughout the third quarter” (5 Oct 2026) reaches United States Oil Fund (USO) through Middle East.

The link for United States Oil Fund (USO) is this: Oil-supply or crude-price developments can transmit through WTI/Brent proxies and energy producer earnings expectations

Also listed, United States Brent Oil Fund (BNO): Oil-supply or crude-price developments can transmit through WTI/Brent proxies and energy producer earnings expectations

Price levels for United States Oil Fund (USO)

BNO traded between 57.39 and 67.79 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 67.10. USO traded between 141.82 and 162.99 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 160.80. XLE traded between 60.95 and 68.51 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 67.80.

A simple score for United States Oil Fund (USO)

100 out of 100

“Crude oil prices and refinery margins generally increased throughout the third quarter” scores 100 out of 100. The score uses 10 linked companies.