Geopolitics Alpha

Crude Prices Erase an Early Rally on US-Iran Diplomacy Speculation

Published . Updated .

November WTI crude oil (CLX26 ) closed up +0.19 (+0.21%) on Monday, and November RBOB gasoline (RBX26 ) closed down -0.0297 (-0.93%). Crude oil and gasoline prices gave up a sharp advance on Monday and settled mixed. Crude prices erased nearly all of an early rally on Monday after a...

Directly affected

  • No company is named in this report.

Indirectly affected

  • FRO Frontline

    Tanker operators earn more when freight rates spike

  • INSW International Seaways

    Tanker operators earn more when freight rates spike

  • DHT DHT Holdings

    Tanker operators earn more when freight rates spike

  • TNK Teekay Tankers

    Tanker operators earn more when freight rates spike

  • USO United States Oil Fund

    Oil prices move when Iranian supply is at risk

  • XLE Energy Select Sector SPDR

    Energy companies move with Iran supply risk

  • XOM Exxon Mobil

    Oil producers earn more when crude prices rise

  • CVX Chevron

    Oil producers earn more when crude prices rise

  • STNG Scorpio Tankers

    Tanker operators earn more when freight rates spike

  • DAL Delta Air Lines

    Airlines pay more for fuel when oil prices jump

Price reaction, T-5 to T+3

TickerT-5T-3T-1T0T+1T+2T+3
FRO———————
INSW———————
DHT———————
TNK———————
USO———————
XLE———————
XOM———————
CVX———————
STNG———————
DAL———————

November WTI crude oil (CLX26 ) closed up +0.19 (+0.21%) on Monday, and November RBOB gasoline (RBX26 ) closed down -0.0297 (-0.93%). Crude oil and gasoline prices gave up a sharp advance on Monday and settled mixed. Crude prices erased ne…

Source: Nasdaq Markets

United States Oil Fund (USO) compared with energy stocks (XLE) since 28 Sep 2026

Since the first closing price after “Crude Prices Erase an Early Rally on US-Iran Diplomacy Speculation,” United States Oil Fund (USO) is +12.17%. The S&P 500 fund (SPY) is +0.29% over the same days, a +11.87% difference versus the market. energy stocks (XLE) is +10.15%, a +2.01% difference versus that group of stocks.

USO
SPY
XLE

United States Oil Fund (USO) on one side of this energy story

Companies tied to this story

  • USO United States Oil Fund

    United States Oil Fund (USO) is linked, with no stored direction, high confidence in the 28 Sep 2026 story “Crude Prices Erase an Early Rally on US-Iran Diplomacy Speculation.” Reason on file: Oil-supply or crude-price developments can transmit through WTI/Brent proxies and energy producer earnings expectations

  • BNO United States Brent Oil Fund

    United States Brent Oil Fund (BNO) is linked, with no stored direction, high confidence in the 28 Sep 2026 story “Crude Prices Erase an Early Rally on US-Iran Diplomacy Speculation.” Reason on file: Oil-supply or crude-price developments can transmit through WTI/Brent proxies and energy producer earnings expectations

  • XLE Select Sector Spdr Tr

    In “Crude Prices Erase an Early Rally on US-Iran Diplomacy Speculation,” Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) is linked, with no stored direction, high confidence. Reason on file: Oil-supply or crude-price developments can transmit through WTI/Brent proxies and energy producer earnings expectations

  • XOP State Street Spdr S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Etf

    For “Crude Prices Erase an Early Rally on US-Iran Diplomacy Speculation,” State Street Spdr S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Etf (XOP) is linked, with no stored direction, high confidence. Reason on file: Oil-supply or crude-price developments can transmit through WTI/Brent proxies and energy producer earnings expectations

  • UGA United States Gasoline Fund

    United States Gasoline Fund (UGA) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 28 Sep 2026 story “Crude Prices Erase an Early Rally on US-Iran Diplomacy Speculation.” Reason on file: Higher fuel and transport costs can propagate into commodity inputs, consumer margins, credit conditions, and interest-rate expectations

  • IWM Ishares Tr

    In “Crude Prices Erase an Early Rally on US-Iran Diplomacy Speculation,” Ishares Tr (IWM) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Higher fuel and transport costs can propagate into commodity inputs, consumer margins, credit conditions, and interest-rate expectations

  • HYG Ishares Tr

    In “Crude Prices Erase an Early Rally on US-Iran Diplomacy Speculation,” Ishares Tr (HYG) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Higher fuel and transport costs can propagate into commodity inputs, consumer margins, credit conditions, and interest-rate expectations

  • IEI Ishares Tr

    Ishares Tr (IEI) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 28 Sep 2026 story “Crude Prices Erase an Early Rally on US-Iran Diplomacy Speculation.” Reason on file: Higher fuel and transport costs can propagate into commodity inputs, consumer margins, credit conditions, and interest-rate expectations

United States Oil Fund (USO) and the energy link

United States Oil Fund (USO) is the company in “Crude Prices Erase an Early Rally on US-Iran Diplomacy Speculation,” the 28 Sep 2026 Energy story.

The link for United States Oil Fund (USO) is this: Oil-supply or crude-price developments can transmit through WTI/Brent proxies and energy producer earnings expectations

Also listed, United States Brent Oil Fund (BNO): Oil-supply or crude-price developments can transmit through WTI/Brent proxies and energy producer earnings expectations

Dates and price levels for United States Oil Fund (USO)

BNO traded between 57.39 and 67.79 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 67.10. USO traded between 141.82 and 162.99 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 160.80. XLE traded between 60.95 and 68.51 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 67.80.

How strong the case is around United States Oil Fund (USO)

46 out of 100

“Crude Prices Erase an Early Rally on US-Iran Diplomacy Speculation” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 19 linked companies.