Geopolitics Alpha

Dollar Gains and Gold Slumps on Higher Crude Prices and T-note Yields

Published . Updated .

The dollar index (DXY00 ) is up by +0.21% today. The dollar is moving higher today, amid the +2% jump in WTI crude oil, which raises inflation expectations and could prompt the Fed to tighten monetary policy, a supportive factor for the dollar. Also, today’s weakness in stocks has boosted...

Directly affected

  • No company is named in this report.

Indirectly affected

  • TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond

    Long-term bonds move when yields change

  • IEF iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond

    Treasury bonds move when yields change

  • SHY iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond

    Short-term bonds move when the Fed changes rates

  • SPY SPDR S&P 500

    Stocks move when the Fed changes the rate path

  • XOM Exxon Mobil

    Oil producers earn more when crude prices rise

  • CVX Chevron

    Oil producers earn more when crude prices rise

  • JPM JPMorgan Chase

    Bank profits move with lending and interest rates

  • BAC Bank of America

    Bank profits move with lending and interest rates

  • GS Goldman Sachs

    Bank profits move with lending and interest rates

  • XLF Financial Select Sector SPDR

    A fund of financial companies

Price reaction, T-5 to T+3

TickerT-5T-3T-1T0T+1T+2T+3
TLT———————
IEF———————
SHY———————
SPY———————
XOM———————
CVX———————
JPM———————
BAC———————
GS———————
XLF———————

The dollar index (DXY00 ) is up by +0.21% today. The dollar is moving higher today, amid the +2% jump in WTI crude oil, which raises inflation expectations and could prompt the Fed to tighten monetary policy, a supportive factor for the do…

Source: Nasdaq Markets

The price since 28 Sep 2026: United States Oil Fund (USO) versus the S&P 500

Since the first closing price after “Dollar Gains and Gold Slumps on Higher Crude Prices and T-note Yields,” United States Oil Fund (USO) is +12.17%. The S&P 500 fund (SPY) is +0.29% over the same days, a +11.87% difference versus the market. energy stocks (XLE) is +10.15%, a +2.01% difference versus that group of stocks.

USO
SPY
XLE

Who collects and who pays in energy

Companies carried with this story

  • USO United States Oil Fund

    For “Dollar Gains and Gold Slumps on Higher Crude Prices and T-note Yields,” United States Oil Fund (USO) is linked, with no stored direction, high confidence. Reason on file: Oil-supply or crude-price developments can transmit through WTI/Brent proxies and energy producer earnings expectations

  • BNO United States Brent Oil Fund

    In “Dollar Gains and Gold Slumps on Higher Crude Prices and T-note Yields,” United States Brent Oil Fund (BNO) is linked, with no stored direction, high confidence. Reason on file: Oil-supply or crude-price developments can transmit through WTI/Brent proxies and energy producer earnings expectations

  • XLE Select Sector Spdr Tr

    Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) is linked, with no stored direction, high confidence in the 28 Sep 2026 story “Dollar Gains and Gold Slumps on Higher Crude Prices and T-note Yields.” Reason on file: Oil-supply or crude-price developments can transmit through WTI/Brent proxies and energy producer earnings expectations

  • XOP State Street Spdr S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Etf

    State Street Spdr S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Etf (XOP) is linked, with no stored direction, high confidence in the 28 Sep 2026 story “Dollar Gains and Gold Slumps on Higher Crude Prices and T-note Yields.” Reason on file: Oil-supply or crude-price developments can transmit through WTI/Brent proxies and energy producer earnings expectations

  • UGA United States Gasoline Fund

    In “Dollar Gains and Gold Slumps on Higher Crude Prices and T-note Yields,” United States Gasoline Fund (UGA) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Higher fuel and transport costs can propagate into commodity inputs, consumer margins, credit conditions, and interest-rate expectations

  • GSG iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust

    iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust (GSG) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 28 Sep 2026 story “Dollar Gains and Gold Slumps on Higher Crude Prices and T-note Yields.” Reason on file: Higher fuel and transport costs can propagate into commodity inputs, consumer margins, credit conditions, and interest-rate expectations

  • DBA Invesco Db Agriculture Fund

    In “Dollar Gains and Gold Slumps on Higher Crude Prices and T-note Yields,” Invesco Db Agriculture Fund (DBA) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Higher fuel and transport costs can propagate into commodity inputs, consumer margins, credit conditions, and interest-rate expectations

  • MOO Vaneck Etf Trust

    In “Dollar Gains and Gold Slumps on Higher Crude Prices and T-note Yields,” Vaneck Etf Trust (MOO) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Higher fuel and transport costs can propagate into commodity inputs, consumer margins, credit conditions, and interest-rate expectations

United States Oil Fund (USO) and the energy link

“Dollar Gains and Gold Slumps on Higher Crude Prices and T-note Yields” (28 Sep 2026) reaches United States Oil Fund (USO) through Energy.

United States Oil Fund (USO) is on the page because Oil-supply or crude-price developments can transmit through WTI/Brent proxies and energy producer earnings expectations

A second company, United States Brent Oil Fund (BNO), is listed for a different reason: Oil-supply or crude-price developments can transmit through WTI/Brent proxies and energy producer earnings expectations

The price range for United States Oil Fund (USO), and the dates in the story

BNO traded between 57.39 and 67.79 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 67.10. USO traded between 141.82 and 162.99 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 160.80. XLE traded between 60.95 and 68.51 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 67.80.

How strong the case is around United States Oil Fund (USO)

46 out of 100

“Dollar Gains and Gold Slumps on Higher Crude Prices and T-note Yields” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 19 linked companies.