Geopolitics Alpha

Energy Ceasefire Cuts Crude Prices While Refining Outages Keep Diesel Tight

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Energy Ceasefire Cuts Crude Prices While Refining Outages Keep Diesel Tight Crux Investor

Directly affected

  • No company is named in this report.

Indirectly affected

  • XOM Exxon Mobil

    Oil producers earn more when crude prices rise

  • CVX Chevron

    Oil producers earn more when crude prices rise

  • OXY Occidental Petroleum

    Oil producers earn more when crude prices rise

  • COP ConocoPhillips

    Oil producers earn more when crude prices rise

  • VLO Valero

    Refiners' profits move with crude and fuel prices

  • MPC Marathon Petroleum

    Refiners' profits move with crude and fuel prices

  • XOP SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration

    A fund of oil and gas producers

  • XLE Energy Select Sector SPDR

    A fund of energy companies

  • USO United States Oil Fund

    This fund moves with oil prices

  • OIH VanEck Oil Services

    Oilfield services rise when drilling follows oil prices

Price reaction, T-5 to T+3

TickerT-5T-3T-1T0T+1T+2T+3
XOM———————
CVX-2.61%-3.22%—+1.43%+2.75%+4.76%+3.48%
OXY-2.97%-3.14%—+1.72%+2.59%+2.20%+0.96%
COP-4.28%-3.18%—+2.57%+5.07%+6.13%+5.67%
VLO———————
MPC-4.71%-2.77%—+0.99%+4.89%+6.56%+4.75%
XOP———————
XLE———————
USO———————
OIH+1.60%-1.76%—+0.08%+0.59%-1.55%-3.03%

Energy Ceasefire Cuts Crude Prices While Refining Outages Keep Diesel Tight Crux Investor

Source: Crux Investor

The price since 12 Oct 2026: United States Oil Fund (USO) versus the S&P 500

Since the first closing price after “Energy Ceasefire Cuts Crude Prices While Refining Outages Keep Diesel Tight,” United States Oil Fund (USO) is +5.04%. The S&P 500 fund (SPY) is -1.47% over the same days, a +6.51% difference versus the market. energy stocks (XLE) is +0.92%, a +4.13% difference versus that group of stocks.

CompanyWhenMoveStatus
COPthat day+2.57%final price
COPthe next day+5.07%final price
COPtwo days later+6.13%final price
COPthree days later+5.67%final price
COPthree days earlier-3.18%final price
COPfive days earlier-4.28%final price
CVXthat day+1.43%final price
CVXthe next day+2.75%final price
CVXtwo days later+4.76%final price
CVXthree days later+3.48%final price
CVXthree days earlier-3.22%final price
CVXfive days earlier-2.61%final price
MPCthat day+0.99%final price
MPCthe next day+4.89%final price
MPCtwo days later+6.56%final price
MPCthree days later+4.75%final price
MPCthree days earlier-2.77%final price
MPCfive days earlier-4.71%final price
OIHthat day+0.08%final price
OIHthe next day+0.59%final price
OIHtwo days later-1.55%final price
OIHthree days later-3.03%final price
OIHthree days earlier-1.76%final price
OIHfive days earlier+1.60%final price
OXYthat day+1.72%final price
OXYthe next day+2.59%final price
OXYtwo days later+2.20%final price
OXYthree days later+0.96%final price
OXYthree days earlier-3.14%final price
OXYfive days earlier-2.97%final price
USO
SPY
XLE

Companies in energy around United States Oil Fund (USO)

Companies tied to this story

  • USO United States Oil Fund

    United States Oil Fund (USO) is linked, with no stored direction, high confidence in the 12 Oct 2026 story “Energy Ceasefire Cuts Crude Prices While Refining Outages Keep Diesel Tight.” Reason on file: Oil-supply or crude-price developments can transmit through WTI/Brent proxies and energy producer earnings expectations

  • BNO United States Brent Oil Fund

    For “Energy Ceasefire Cuts Crude Prices While Refining Outages Keep Diesel Tight,” United States Brent Oil Fund (BNO) is linked, with no stored direction, high confidence. Reason on file: Oil-supply or crude-price developments can transmit through WTI/Brent proxies and energy producer earnings expectations

  • XLE Select Sector Spdr Tr

    In “Energy Ceasefire Cuts Crude Prices While Refining Outages Keep Diesel Tight,” Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) is linked, with no stored direction, high confidence. Reason on file: Oil-supply or crude-price developments can transmit through WTI/Brent proxies and energy producer earnings expectations

  • XOP State Street Spdr S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Etf

    In “Energy Ceasefire Cuts Crude Prices While Refining Outages Keep Diesel Tight,” State Street Spdr S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Etf (XOP) is linked, with no stored direction, high confidence. Reason on file: Oil-supply or crude-price developments can transmit through WTI/Brent proxies and energy producer earnings expectations

  • UGA United States Gasoline Fund

    For “Energy Ceasefire Cuts Crude Prices While Refining Outages Keep Diesel Tight,” United States Gasoline Fund (UGA) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Higher fuel and transport costs can propagate into commodity inputs, consumer margins, credit conditions, and interest-rate expectations

  • GSG iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust

    For “Energy Ceasefire Cuts Crude Prices While Refining Outages Keep Diesel Tight,” iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust (GSG) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Higher fuel and transport costs can propagate into commodity inputs, consumer margins, credit conditions, and interest-rate expectations

  • DBA Invesco Db Agriculture Fund

    Invesco Db Agriculture Fund (DBA) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 12 Oct 2026 story “Energy Ceasefire Cuts Crude Prices While Refining Outages Keep Diesel Tight.” Reason on file: Higher fuel and transport costs can propagate into commodity inputs, consumer margins, credit conditions, and interest-rate expectations

  • MOO Vaneck Etf Trust

    In “Energy Ceasefire Cuts Crude Prices While Refining Outages Keep Diesel Tight,” Vaneck Etf Trust (MOO) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Higher fuel and transport costs can propagate into commodity inputs, consumer margins, credit conditions, and interest-rate expectations

United States Oil Fund (USO) and the energy link

United States Oil Fund (USO) is the company in “Energy Ceasefire Cuts Crude Prices While Refining Outages Keep Diesel Tight,” the 12 Oct 2026 Energy story.

United States Oil Fund (USO) is on the page because Oil-supply or crude-price developments can transmit through WTI/Brent proxies and energy producer earnings expectations

A second company, United States Brent Oil Fund (BNO), is listed for a different reason: Oil-supply or crude-price developments can transmit through WTI/Brent proxies and energy producer earnings expectations

What this energy story puts on the calendar

BNO traded between 57.39 and 67.79 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 67.10. USO traded between 141.82 and 162.99 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 160.80. XLE traded between 60.95 and 68.51 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 67.80.

The energy score for United States Oil Fund (USO)

46 out of 100

“Energy Ceasefire Cuts Crude Prices While Refining Outages Keep Diesel Tight” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 19 linked companies.