Geopolitics Alpha

How oil, gas losses have shrunk Iran’s GDP by 10 percent during war

Published . Updated .

The oil and gas sector shrank 26 percent, new official data shows, pointing to the costs of the US-Israel war on Iran.

Directly affected

  • No company is named in this report.

Indirectly affected

  • FRO Frontline

    Tanker operators earn more when freight rates spike

  • INSW International Seaways

    Tanker operators earn more when freight rates spike

  • DHT DHT Holdings

    Tanker operators earn more when freight rates spike

  • TNK Teekay Tankers

    Tanker operators earn more when freight rates spike

  • USO United States Oil Fund

    Oil prices move when Iranian supply is at risk

  • XLE Energy Select Sector SPDR

    Energy companies move with Iran supply risk

  • LMT Lockheed Martin

    Defense contractors get more work when conflict spending rises

  • RTX RTX

    Defense contractors get more work when conflict spending rises

  • XOM Exxon Mobil

    Oil producers earn more when crude prices rise

  • DAL Delta Air Lines

    Airlines pay more for fuel when oil prices jump

Price reaction, T-5 to T+3

TickerT-5T-3T-1T0T+1T+2T+3
FRO———————
INSW———————
DHT———————
TNK———————
USO———————
XLE———————
LMT———————
RTX———————
XOM———————
DAL———————

The oil and gas sector shrank 26 percent, new official data shows, pointing to the costs of the US-Israel war on Iran.

Source: Al Jazeera World

IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) compared with industrial stocks (XLI) since 21 Sep 2026

Since the first closing price after “How oil, gas losses have shrunk Iran’s GDP by 10 percent during war,” IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) is -3.02%. The S&P 500 fund (SPY) is -0.88% over the same days, a -2.13% difference versus the market. industrial stocks (XLI) is -2.10%, a -0.92% difference versus that group of stocks.

ITA
SPY
XLI

IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) filings in this defense story

Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).

IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) on one side of this defense story

Companies mentioned with this story

  • ITA IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF

    In “How oil, gas losses have shrunk Iran’s GDP by 10 percent during war,” IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Material security escalation can alter defense demand expectations and risk premia

  • XAR Spdr Series Trust

    In “How oil, gas losses have shrunk Iran’s GDP by 10 percent during war,” Spdr Series Trust (XAR) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Material security escalation can alter defense demand expectations and risk premia

  • DUKB Duke Energy

    For “How oil, gas losses have shrunk Iran’s GDP by 10 percent during war,” Duke Energy (DUKB) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: GA selected DUKB as a RELATED security because its canonical security name directly matches this event's themes: percent, energy. This is an explainable DERIVED market relationship, not a claim that the security was named in the source article

  • USO United States Oil Fund

    In “How oil, gas losses have shrunk Iran’s GDP by 10 percent during war,” United States Oil Fund (USO) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Security escalation that explicitly implicates oil infrastructure or crude supply can transmit into crude-price and energy-equity proxies

  • BNO United States Brent Oil Fund

    In “How oil, gas losses have shrunk Iran’s GDP by 10 percent during war,” United States Brent Oil Fund (BNO) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Security escalation that explicitly implicates oil infrastructure or crude supply can transmit into crude-price and energy-equity proxies

  • XLE Select Sector Spdr Tr

    Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 21 Sep 2026 story “How oil, gas losses have shrunk Iran’s GDP by 10 percent during war.” Reason on file: Security escalation that explicitly implicates oil infrastructure or crude supply can transmit into crude-price and energy-equity proxies

  • AEIS Advanced Energy Industries

    In “How oil, gas losses have shrunk Iran’s GDP by 10 percent during war,” Advanced Energy Industries (AEIS) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: GA selected AEIS as a RELATED security because its canonical security name directly matches this event's themes: energy. This is an explainable DERIVED market relationship, not a claim that the security was named in the source article

  • AMPY Amplify Energy

    Amplify Energy (AMPY) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 21 Sep 2026 story “How oil, gas losses have shrunk Iran’s GDP by 10 percent during war.” Reason on file: GA selected AMPY as a RELATED security because its canonical security name directly matches this event's themes: energy. This is an explainable DERIVED market relationship, not a claim that the security was named in the source article

IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) and the defense link

The 21 Sep 2026 story “How oil, gas losses have shrunk Iran’s GDP by 10 percent during war” names IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) because of Defense.

For IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA), the reason on file says Material security escalation can alter defense demand expectations and risk premia

Also listed, Spdr Series Trust (XAR): Material security escalation can alter defense demand expectations and risk premia

Dates and price levels for IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA)

DUKB traded between 19.75 and 21.11 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 20.80. ITA traded between 201.08 and 217.79 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 207.60. XAR traded between 216.28 and 245.40 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 223.20.

How strong the case is around IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA)

46 out of 100

“How oil, gas losses have shrunk Iran’s GDP by 10 percent during war” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 14 linked companies.