How the trade war with Canada is hitting US states—and could sway midterm elections
Published . Updated .
How the trade war with Canada is hitting US states—and could sway midterm elections Atlantic Council
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- LMT Lockheed Martin
Defense contractors get more work when conflict spending rises
- RTX RTX
Defense contractors get more work when conflict spending rises
- NOC Northrop Grumman
Defense contractors get more work when conflict spending rises
- GD General Dynamics
Defense contractors get more work when conflict spending rises
- ITA iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense
A fund of aerospace and defense companies
- BA Boeing
Defense and aerospace orders move with conflict spending
- LHX L3Harris
Defense contractors get more work when conflict spending rises
- HII Huntington Ingalls
Shipyards benefit when naval spending rises
- XAR SPDR SERIES TRUST
Material security escalation can alter defense demand expectations and risk premia.
- CPER UNITED STATES COPPER INDEX FUND
GA selected CPER as a RELATED security because its canonical security name directly matches this event's themes: states. This is an explainable DERIVED market relationship, not a claim that the security was named in the source article.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
How the trade war with Canada is hitting US states—and could sway midterm elections Atlantic Council
Source: Atlantic Council
How IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) moved across the last 5 defense stories
In the last 5 similar stories, IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) moved an average of +1.36% the next day. The best was +1.36% and the worst was +1.36%, from 3 prices.
| Company | When | Average | Largest gain | Largest drop | Prices |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) | the next day | +1.36% | +1.36% | +1.36% | 3 |
| IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) | three days later | +1.74% | +1.74% | +1.74% | 3 |
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IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) since this story, compared with the market
Since the first closing price after “How the trade war with Canada is hitting US states—and could sway midterm elections,” IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) is +1.63%. The S&P 500 fund (SPY) is -0.40% over the same days, a +2.03% difference versus the market. industrial stocks (XLI) is -0.20%, a +1.83% difference versus that group of stocks.
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| BA | that day | -1.05% | final price |
| BA | the next day | +1.18% | final price |
| BA | two days later | +1.89% | final price |
| BA | three days later | +2.59% | final price |
| BA | three days earlier | +2.10% | final price |
| BA | five days earlier | +0.94% | final price |
| GD | that day | +0.64% | final price |
| GD | the next day | +1.35% | final price |
| GD | two days later | +3.50% | final price |
| GD | three days later | +2.66% | final price |
| GD | three days earlier | -0.34% | final price |
| GD | five days earlier | -1.80% | final price |
| HII | that day | +2.63% | final price |
| HII | the next day | +3.73% | final price |
| HII | two days later | +5.41% | final price |
| HII | three days later | +4.60% | final price |
| HII | three days earlier | +2.68% | final price |
| HII | five days earlier | +1.16% | final price |
| IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) | that day | +0.09% | final price |
| IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) | the next day | +1.36% | final price |
| IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) | two days later | +2.47% | final price |
| IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) | three days later | +1.74% | final price |
| IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) | three days earlier | +1.27% | final price |
| IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) | five days earlier | -0.22% | final price |
| Spdr Ser Tr State Street Spdr S&P Bk Etf (KBE) | that day | -0.71% | final price |
| Spdr Ser Tr State Street Spdr S&P Bk Etf (KBE) | the next day | +0.95% | final price |
| Spdr Ser Tr State Street Spdr S&P Bk Etf (KBE) | two days later | +1.10% | final price |
| Spdr Ser Tr State Street Spdr S&P Bk Etf (KBE) | three days later | +0.29% | final price |
| Spdr Ser Tr State Street Spdr S&P Bk Etf (KBE) | three days earlier | +0.25% | final price |
| Spdr Ser Tr State Street Spdr S&P Bk Etf (KBE) | five days earlier | -0.08% | final price |
Who collects and who pays in defense
Companies carried with this story
- ITA IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF
In “How the trade war with Canada is hitting US states—and could sway midterm elections,” IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Material security escalation can alter defense demand expectations and risk premia
- XAR Spdr Series Trust
Spdr Series Trust (XAR) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 13 Oct 2026 story “How the trade war with Canada is hitting US states—and could sway midterm elections.” Reason on file: Material security escalation can alter defense demand expectations and risk premia
- CPER United States Commodity Index Funds Trust
United States Commodity Index Funds Trust (CPER) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 13 Oct 2026 story “How the trade war with Canada is hitting US states—and could sway midterm elections.” Reason on file: GA selected CPER as a RELATED security because its canonical security name directly matches this event's themes: states. This is an explainable DERIVED market relationship, not a claim that the security was named in the source article
- EWC Ishares Msci Canada Etf
Ishares Msci Canada Etf (EWC) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 13 Oct 2026 story “How the trade war with Canada is hitting US states—and could sway midterm elections.” Reason on file: GA selected EWC as a RELATED security because its canonical security name directly matches this event's themes: canada. This is an explainable DERIVED market relationship, not a claim that the security was named in the source article
- KBE Spdr Ser Tr State Street Spdr S&P Bk Etf
Spdr Ser Tr State Street Spdr S&P Bk Etf (KBE) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 13 Oct 2026 story “How the trade war with Canada is hitting US states—and could sway midterm elections.” Reason on file: GA selected KBE as a RELATED security because its canonical security name directly matches this event's themes: states. This is an explainable DERIVED market relationship, not a claim that the security was named in the source article
- SPY Spdr S&P 500 Etf Trust
Spdr S&P 500 Etf Trust (SPY) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 13 Oct 2026 story “How the trade war with Canada is hitting US states—and could sway midterm elections.” Reason on file: GA selected SPY as a RELATED security because its canonical security name directly matches this event's themes: states. This is an explainable DERIVED market relationship, not a claim that the security was named in the source article
- UGA United States Gasoline Fund
In “How the trade war with Canada is hitting US states—and could sway midterm elections,” United States Gasoline Fund (UGA) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: GA selected UGA as a RELATED security because its canonical security name directly matches this event's themes: states. This is an explainable DERIVED market relationship, not a claim that the security was named in the source article
- GLD Spdr Gold Trust
Spdr Gold Trust (GLD) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 13 Oct 2026 story “How the trade war with Canada is hitting US states—and could sway midterm elections.” Reason on file: Material security escalation can affect safe-haven and macro-risk proxies; this is a monitoring relationship, not a directional prediction
IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) and the defense link
“How the trade war with Canada is hitting US states—and could sway midterm elections” (13 Oct 2026) reaches IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) through Defense.
What ties IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) to the headline is this: Material security escalation can alter defense demand expectations and risk premia
A second company, Spdr Series Trust (XAR), is listed for a different reason: Material security escalation can alter defense demand expectations and risk premia
What this defense story puts on the calendar
CPER traded between 39.20 and 41.49 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 39.58. ITA traded between 201.08 and 217.79 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 207.60. SPY traded between 758.80 and 781.59 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 766.60.
The defense score for IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA)
46 out of 100
“How the trade war with Canada is hitting US states—and could sway midterm elections” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 10 linked companies.