Oil and Treasury yields haven’t moved this closely in seven years. That’s bad news for markets
Published . Updated .
Oil and 10-year Treasury yields are moving in near lockstep, with their correlation at its strongest since 2019.
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond
Long-term bonds move when yields change
- IEF iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond
Treasury bonds move when yields change
- SHY iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond
Short-term bonds move when the Fed changes rates
- SPY SPDR S&P 500
Stocks move when the Fed changes the rate path
- XOM Exxon Mobil
Oil producers earn more when crude prices rise
- CVX Chevron
Oil producers earn more when crude prices rise
- JPM JPMorgan Chase
Bank profits move with lending and interest rates
- BAC Bank of America
Bank profits move with lending and interest rates
- GS Goldman Sachs
Bank profits move with lending and interest rates
- XLF Financial Select Sector SPDR
A fund of financial companies
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
Oil and 10-year Treasury yields are moving in near lockstep, with their correlation at its strongest since 2019.
Source: CNBC Top
Price since this story was published: United States Oil Fund (USO)
Since the first closing price after “Oil and Treasury yields haven’t moved this closely in seven years. That’s bad news for markets,” United States Oil Fund (USO) is +2.96%. The S&P 500 fund (SPY) is +1.66% over the same days, a +1.30% difference versus the market. energy stocks (XLE) is +5.85%, a -2.89% difference versus that group of stocks.
Disclosure records for United States Oil Fund (USO) within two months of 15 Sep 2026
- Gilbert Cisneros buy Advanced Energy Industries (AEIS) ($1,001 - $15,000). That is 14 days after publication, inside 30 days. The filing is listed beside the story “Oil and Treasury yields haven’t moved this closely in seven years. That’s bad news for markets.”
- Nancy Pelosi buy Bloom Energy (BE) ($500,001 - $1,000,000). That is 49 days before publication, inside 60 days. The filing is listed beside the story “Oil and Treasury yields haven’t moved this closely in seven years. That’s bad news for markets.”
- Nancy Pelosi buy Bloom Energy (BE) ($1,000,001 - $5,000,000). That is 53 days before publication, inside 60 days. The filing is listed beside the story “Oil and Treasury yields haven’t moved this closely in seven years. That’s bad news for markets.”
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
United States Oil Fund (USO) on one side of this energy story
Companies mentioned with this story
- USO United States Oil Fund
United States Oil Fund (USO) is linked, with no stored direction, high confidence in the 15 Sep 2026 story “Oil and Treasury yields haven’t moved this closely in seven years. That’s bad news for markets.” Reason on file: Oil-supply or crude-price developments can transmit through WTI/Brent proxies and energy producer earnings expectations
- BNO United States Brent Oil Fund
In “Oil and Treasury yields haven’t moved this closely in seven years. That’s bad news for markets,” United States Brent Oil Fund (BNO) is linked, with no stored direction, high confidence. Reason on file: Oil-supply or crude-price developments can transmit through WTI/Brent proxies and energy producer earnings expectations
- XLE Select Sector Spdr Tr
For “Oil and Treasury yields haven’t moved this closely in seven years. That’s bad news for markets,” Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) is linked, with no stored direction, high confidence. Reason on file: Oil-supply or crude-price developments can transmit through WTI/Brent proxies and energy producer earnings expectations
- XOP State Street Spdr S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Etf
In “Oil and Treasury yields haven’t moved this closely in seven years. That’s bad news for markets,” State Street Spdr S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Etf (XOP) is linked, with no stored direction, high confidence. Reason on file: Oil-supply or crude-price developments can transmit through WTI/Brent proxies and energy producer earnings expectations
- AEIS Advanced Energy Industries
For “Oil and Treasury yields haven’t moved this closely in seven years. That’s bad news for markets,” Advanced Energy Industries (AEIS) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: GA selected AEIS as a RELATED security because its canonical security name directly matches this event's themes: energy. This is an explainable DERIVED market relationship, not a claim that the security was named in the source article
- AMPY Amplify Energy
Amplify Energy (AMPY) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 15 Sep 2026 story “Oil and Treasury yields haven’t moved this closely in seven years. That’s bad news for markets.” Reason on file: GA selected AMPY as a RELATED security because its canonical security name directly matches this event's themes: energy. This is an explainable DERIVED market relationship, not a claim that the security was named in the source article
- ATO Atmos Energy
In “Oil and Treasury yields haven’t moved this closely in seven years. That’s bad news for markets,” Atmos Energy (ATO) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: GA selected ATO as a RELATED security because its canonical security name directly matches this event's themes: energy. This is an explainable DERIVED market relationship, not a claim that the security was named in the source article
- BE Bloom Energy
Bloom Energy (BE) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 15 Sep 2026 story “Oil and Treasury yields haven’t moved this closely in seven years. That’s bad news for markets.” Reason on file: GA selected BE as a RELATED security because its canonical security name directly matches this event's themes: energy. This is an explainable DERIVED market relationship, not a claim that the security was named in the source article
How energy news reaches United States Oil Fund (USO)
On 15 Sep 2026, “Oil and Treasury yields haven’t moved this closely in seven years. That’s bad news for markets” is the story that connects United States Oil Fund (USO) to Energy.
For United States Oil Fund (USO), the reason on file says Oil-supply or crude-price developments can transmit through WTI/Brent proxies and energy producer earnings expectations
Also listed, United States Brent Oil Fund (BNO): Oil-supply or crude-price developments can transmit through WTI/Brent proxies and energy producer earnings expectations
Dates in the story, and the United States Oil Fund (USO) price range
BNO traded between 57.39 and 67.79 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 67.10. USO traded between 141.82 and 162.99 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 160.80. XLE traded between 60.95 and 68.51 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 67.80.
How solid the energy case looks
46 out of 100
“Oil and Treasury yields haven’t moved this closely in seven years. That’s bad news for markets” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 10 linked companies.