Geopolitics Alpha

The Futures Trades: Crude oil vs. refined products

Published . Updated .

The Futures Trades: Crude oil vs. refined products CNBC

Directly affected

  • No company is named in this report.

Indirectly affected

  • XOM Exxon Mobil

    Oil producers earn more when crude prices rise

  • CVX Chevron

    Oil producers earn more when crude prices rise

  • OXY Occidental Petroleum

    Oil producers earn more when crude prices rise

  • COP ConocoPhillips

    Oil producers earn more when crude prices rise

  • VLO Valero

    Refiners' profits move with crude and fuel prices

  • MPC Marathon Petroleum

    Refiners' profits move with crude and fuel prices

  • XOP SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration

    A fund of oil and gas producers

  • XLE Energy Select Sector SPDR

    A fund of energy companies

  • USO United States Oil Fund

    This fund moves with oil prices

  • OIH VanEck Oil Services

    Oilfield services rise when drilling follows oil prices

Price reaction, T-5 to T+3

TickerT-5T-3T-1T0T+1T+2T+3
XOM———————
CVX-2.61%-3.22%—+1.43%+2.75%+4.76%+3.48%
OXY-2.97%-3.14%—+1.72%+2.59%+2.20%+0.96%
COP-4.28%-3.18%—+2.57%+5.07%+6.13%+5.67%
VLO———————
MPC-4.71%-2.77%—+0.99%+4.89%+6.56%+4.75%
XOP———————
XLE———————
USO———————
OIH+1.60%-1.76%—+0.08%+0.59%-1.55%-3.03%

The Futures Trades: Crude oil vs. refined products CNBC

Source: CNBC

Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) compared with energy stocks (XLE) since 12 Oct 2026

Since the first closing price after “The Futures Trades: Crude oil vs. refined products,” Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) is +0.92%. The S&P 500 fund (SPY) is -1.47% over the same days, a +2.38% difference versus the market.

CompanyWhenMoveStatus
COPthat day+2.57%final price
COPthe next day+5.07%final price
COPtwo days later+6.13%final price
COPthree days later+5.67%final price
COPthree days earlier-3.18%final price
COPfive days earlier-4.28%final price
CVXthat day+1.43%final price
CVXthe next day+2.75%final price
CVXtwo days later+4.76%final price
CVXthree days later+3.48%final price
CVXthree days earlier-3.22%final price
CVXfive days earlier-2.61%final price
MPCthat day+0.99%final price
MPCthe next day+4.89%final price
MPCtwo days later+6.56%final price
MPCthree days later+4.75%final price
MPCthree days earlier-2.77%final price
MPCfive days earlier-4.71%final price
OIHthat day+0.08%final price
OIHthe next day+0.59%final price
OIHtwo days later-1.55%final price
OIHthree days later-3.03%final price
OIHthree days earlier-1.76%final price
OIHfive days earlier+1.60%final price
OXYthat day+1.72%final price
OXYthe next day+2.59%final price
OXYtwo days later+2.20%final price
OXYthree days later+0.96%final price
OXYthree days earlier-3.14%final price
OXYfive days earlier-2.97%final price
XLE
SPY
XLE

Disclosure records for Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) within two months of 12 Oct 2026

Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).

Who gains and who loses around Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE)

Companies tied to this story

  • XLE Select Sector Spdr Tr

    For “The Futures Trades: Crude oil vs. refined products,” Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) is linked, with no stored direction, high confidence. Reason on file: Oil-supply or crude-price developments can transmit through WTI/Brent proxies and energy producer earnings expectations

  • XOP State Street Spdr S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Etf

    For “The Futures Trades: Crude oil vs. refined products,” State Street Spdr S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Etf (XOP) is linked, with no stored direction, high confidence. Reason on file: Oil-supply or crude-price developments can transmit through WTI/Brent proxies and energy producer earnings expectations

  • USO United States Oil Fund

    In “The Futures Trades: Crude oil vs. refined products,” United States Oil Fund (USO) is linked, with no stored direction, high confidence. Reason on file: Oil-supply or crude-price developments can transmit through WTI/Brent proxies and energy producer earnings expectations

  • BNO United States Brent Oil Fund

    United States Brent Oil Fund (BNO) is linked, with no stored direction, high confidence in the 12 Oct 2026 story “The Futures Trades: Crude oil vs. refined products.” Reason on file: Oil-supply or crude-price developments can transmit through WTI/Brent proxies and energy producer earnings expectations

  • AEIS Advanced Energy Industries

    Advanced Energy Industries (AEIS) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 12 Oct 2026 story “The Futures Trades: Crude oil vs. refined products.” Reason on file: GA selected AEIS as a RELATED security because its canonical security name directly matches this event's themes: energy. This is an explainable DERIVED market relationship, not a claim that the security was named in the source article

  • AMPY Amplify Energy

    For “The Futures Trades: Crude oil vs. refined products,” Amplify Energy (AMPY) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: GA selected AMPY as a RELATED security because its canonical security name directly matches this event's themes: energy. This is an explainable DERIVED market relationship, not a claim that the security was named in the source article

  • ATO Atmos Energy

    In “The Futures Trades: Crude oil vs. refined products,” Atmos Energy (ATO) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: GA selected ATO as a RELATED security because its canonical security name directly matches this event's themes: energy. This is an explainable DERIVED market relationship, not a claim that the security was named in the source article

  • BE Bloom Energy

    For “The Futures Trades: Crude oil vs. refined products,” Bloom Energy (BE) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: GA selected BE as a RELATED security because its canonical security name directly matches this event's themes: energy. This is an explainable DERIVED market relationship, not a claim that the security was named in the source article

How “The Futures Trades: Crude oil vs. refined products” reaches Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE)

The 12 Oct 2026 story “The Futures Trades: Crude oil vs. refined products” names Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) because of Energy.

The link for Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) is this: Oil-supply or crude-price developments can transmit through WTI/Brent proxies and energy producer earnings expectations

State Street Spdr S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Etf (XOP) is here too. Its reason reads: Oil-supply or crude-price developments can transmit through WTI/Brent proxies and energy producer earnings expectations

The price range for Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE), and the dates in the story

USO traded between 141.82 and 162.99 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 160.80. XLE traded between 60.95 and 68.51 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 67.80. XOP traded between 177.09 and 202.25 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 199.52.

A simple score for Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE)

46 out of 100

“The Futures Trades: Crude oil vs. refined products” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 10 linked companies.