The global economy is starting to look K-shaped. Here are the winners and losers, and where the U.S. fits.
Published . Updated .
IMF sees a split global economy, with countries less exposed to the oil shock and benefiting from AI demand pulling ahead
Directly affected
- WNRS Winners
Named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- XOM Exxon Mobil
Oil producers earn more when crude prices rise
- CVX Chevron
Oil producers earn more when crude prices rise
- OXY Occidental Petroleum
Oil producers earn more when crude prices rise
- COP ConocoPhillips
Oil producers earn more when crude prices rise
- VLO Valero
Refiners' profits move with crude and fuel prices
- MPC Marathon Petroleum
Refiners' profits move with crude and fuel prices
- XOP SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration
A fund of oil and gas producers
- XLE Energy Select Sector SPDR
A fund of energy companies
- USO United States Oil Fund
This fund moves with oil prices
- OIH VanEck Oil Services
Oilfield services rise when drilling follows oil prices
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
IMF sees a split global economy, with countries less exposed to the oil shock and benefiting from AI demand pulling ahead
Source: MarketWatch
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) since this story, compared with the market
Since the first closing price after “The global economy is starting to look K-shaped. Here are the winners and losers, and where the U.S. fits.,” Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) is +0.27%. The S&P 500 fund (SPY) is -0.40% over the same days, a +0.66% difference versus the market.
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| COP | that day | +2.44% | final price |
| COP | the next day | +3.47% | final price |
| COP | two days later | +3.03% | final price |
| COP | three days later | +6.51% | final price |
| COP | three days earlier | -2.44% | final price |
| COP | five days earlier | -5.98% | final price |
| CVX | that day | +1.30% | final price |
| CVX | the next day | +3.29% | final price |
| CVX | two days later | +2.02% | final price |
| CVX | three days later | +4.63% | final price |
| CVX | three days earlier | -1.61% | final price |
| CVX | five days earlier | -3.45% | final price |
| MPC | that day | +3.86% | final price |
| MPC | the next day | +5.51% | final price |
| MPC | two days later | +3.72% | final price |
| MPC | three days later | +4.08% | final price |
| MPC | three days earlier | +0.92% | final price |
| MPC | five days earlier | -5.88% | final price |
| OIH | that day | +0.51% | final price |
| OIH | the next day | -1.62% | final price |
| OIH | two days later | -3.10% | final price |
| OIH | three days later | -1.60% | final price |
| OIH | three days earlier | -0.38% | final price |
| OIH | five days earlier | +0.75% | final price |
| OXY | that day | +0.85% | final price |
| OXY | the next day | +0.47% | final price |
| OXY | two days later | -0.75% | final price |
| OXY | three days later | +2.06% | final price |
| OXY | three days earlier | -1.39% | final price |
| OXY | five days earlier | -4.58% | final price |
Who collects and who pays in energy
Companies mentioned with this story
- XLE Select Sector Spdr Tr
In “The global economy is starting to look K-shaped. Here are the winners and losers, and where the U.S. fits.,” Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) is linked, with no stored direction, high confidence. Reason on file: Oil-supply or crude-price developments can transmit through WTI/Brent proxies and energy producer earnings expectations
- XOP State Street Spdr S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Etf
For “The global economy is starting to look K-shaped. Here are the winners and losers, and where the U.S. fits.,” State Street Spdr S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Etf (XOP) is linked, with no stored direction, high confidence. Reason on file: Oil-supply or crude-price developments can transmit through WTI/Brent proxies and energy producer earnings expectations
- USO United States Oil Fund
In “The global economy is starting to look K-shaped. Here are the winners and losers, and where the U.S. fits.,” United States Oil Fund (USO) is linked, with no stored direction, high confidence. Reason on file: Oil-supply or crude-price developments can transmit through WTI/Brent proxies and energy producer earnings expectations
- BNO United States Brent Oil Fund
For “The global economy is starting to look K-shaped. Here are the winners and losers, and where the U.S. fits.,” United States Brent Oil Fund (BNO) is linked, with no stored direction, high confidence. Reason on file: Oil-supply or crude-price developments can transmit through WTI/Brent proxies and energy producer earnings expectations
- CBAT CBAK Energy Technology
CBAK Energy Technology (CBAT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 13 Oct 2026 story “The global economy is starting to look K-shaped. Here are the winners and losers, and where the U.S. fits..” Reason on file: GA selected CBAT as a RELATED security because its canonical security name directly matches this event's themes: technology, energy. This is an explainable DERIVED market relationship, not a claim that the security was named in the source article
- CGTL Creative Global Technology Holdings
Creative Global Technology Holdings (CGTL) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 13 Oct 2026 story “The global economy is starting to look K-shaped. Here are the winners and losers, and where the U.S. fits..” Reason on file: GA selected CGTL as a RELATED security because its canonical security name directly matches this event's themes: technology, global. This is an explainable DERIVED market relationship, not a claim that the security was named in the source article
- GMM Global Mofy AI
In “The global economy is starting to look K-shaped. Here are the winners and losers, and where the U.S. fits.,” Global Mofy AI (GMM) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: GA selected GMM as a RELATED security because its canonical security name directly matches this event's themes: global, ai. This is an explainable DERIVED market relationship, not a claim that the security was named in the source article
- KGEI Kolibri Global Energy
Kolibri Global Energy (KGEI) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 13 Oct 2026 story “The global economy is starting to look K-shaped. Here are the winners and losers, and where the U.S. fits..” Reason on file: GA selected KGEI as a RELATED security because its canonical security name directly matches this event's themes: energy, global. This is an explainable DERIVED market relationship, not a claim that the security was named in the source article
How energy news reaches Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE)
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) is the company in “The global economy is starting to look K-shaped. Here are the winners and losers, and where the U.S. fits.,” the 13 Oct 2026 Energy story.
For Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE), the reason on file says Oil-supply or crude-price developments can transmit through WTI/Brent proxies and energy producer earnings expectations
Also listed, State Street Spdr S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Etf (XOP): Oil-supply or crude-price developments can transmit through WTI/Brent proxies and energy producer earnings expectations
The price range for Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE), and the dates in the story
USO traded between 141.82 and 162.99 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 160.80. XLE traded between 60.95 and 68.51 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 67.80. XOP traded between 177.09 and 202.25 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 199.52.
A simple score for Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE)
46 out of 100
“The global economy is starting to look K-shaped. Here are the winners and losers, and where the U.S. fits.” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 10 linked companies.