Geopolitics Alpha

There’s a new Wall Street TACO index — and this one is saying it’s time for Trump to strike a deal

Published . Updated .

JPMorgan has devised a “TACO” barometer, referring to the expression Trump Always Chickens Out, as a way to predict the behavior of the mercurial world leader.

Directly affected

  • JPM Jpmorgan Chase

    Named in this report.

Indirectly affected

  • LMT Lockheed Martin

    Defense contractors get more work when conflict spending rises

  • RTX RTX

    Defense contractors get more work when conflict spending rises

  • NOC Northrop Grumman

    Defense contractors get more work when conflict spending rises

  • GD General Dynamics

    Defense contractors get more work when conflict spending rises

  • ITA iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense

    A fund of aerospace and defense companies

  • BA Boeing

    Defense and aerospace orders move with conflict spending

  • LHX L3Harris

    Defense contractors get more work when conflict spending rises

  • HII Huntington Ingalls

    Shipyards benefit when naval spending rises

  • SMLV STATE STREET SPDR US SMALL CAP LOW VOLATILITY INDEX ETF

    GA selected SMLV as a RELATED security because its canonical security name directly matches this event's themes: street, index. This is an explainable DERIVED market relationship, not a claim that the security was named in the source article.

  • CPER UNITED STATES COPPER INDEX FUND

    GA selected CPER as a RELATED security because its canonical security name directly matches this event's themes: index. This is an explainable DERIVED market relationship, not a claim that the security was named in the source article.

Price reaction, T-5 to T+3

TickerT-5T-3T-1T0T+1T+2T+3
JPM———————
LMT———————
RTX———————
NOC———————
GD———————
ITA———————
BA———————
LHX———————
HII———————
SMLV———————
CPER———————

JPMorgan has devised a TACO barometer, referring to the expression Trump Always Chickens Out ,as a way to predict the behavior of the mercurial world leader.

Source: MarketWatch

State Street Spdr Us Small Cap Low Volatility Index Etf (SMLV) since this story, compared with the market

Since the first closing price after “There’s a new Wall Street TACO index — and this one is saying it’s time for Trump to strike a deal,” State Street Spdr Us Small Cap Low Volatility Index Etf (SMLV) is +0.92%. The S&P 500 fund (SPY) is +0.33% over the same days, a +0.59% difference versus the market.

SMLV
SPY

Who gains and who loses around State Street Spdr Us Small Cap Low Volatility Index Etf (SMLV)

Companies tied to this story

  • SMLV State Street Spdr Us Small Cap Low Volatility Index Etf

    In “There’s a new Wall Street TACO index — and this one is saying it’s time for Trump to strike a deal,” State Street Spdr Us Small Cap Low Volatility Index Etf (SMLV) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: GA selected SMLV as a RELATED security because its canonical security name directly matches this event's themes: street, index. This is an explainable DERIVED market relationship, not a claim that the security was named in the source article

  • CPER United States Commodity Index Funds Trust

    For “There’s a new Wall Street TACO index — and this one is saying it’s time for Trump to strike a deal,” United States Commodity Index Funds Trust (CPER) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: GA selected CPER as a RELATED security because its canonical security name directly matches this event's themes: index. This is an explainable DERIVED market relationship, not a claim that the security was named in the source article

  • KBE Spdr Ser Tr State Street Spdr S&P Bk Etf

    In “There’s a new Wall Street TACO index — and this one is saying it’s time for Trump to strike a deal,” Spdr Ser Tr State Street Spdr S&P Bk Etf (KBE) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: GA selected KBE as a RELATED security because its canonical security name directly matches this event's themes: street. This is an explainable DERIVED market relationship, not a claim that the security was named in the source article

  • XHB State Street Spdr S&P Homebuilders Etf

    State Street Spdr S&P Homebuilders Etf (XHB) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 30 Sep 2026 story “There’s a new Wall Street TACO index — and this one is saying it’s time for Trump to strike a deal.” Reason on file: GA selected XHB as a RELATED security because its canonical security name directly matches this event's themes: street. This is an explainable DERIVED market relationship, not a claim that the security was named in the source article

  • XOP State Street Spdr S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Etf

    State Street Spdr S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Etf (XOP) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 30 Sep 2026 story “There’s a new Wall Street TACO index — and this one is saying it’s time for Trump to strike a deal.” Reason on file: GA selected XOP as a RELATED security because its canonical security name directly matches this event's themes: street. This is an explainable DERIVED market relationship, not a claim that the security was named in the source article

  • BITW Bitwise 10 Crypto Index ETF

    Bitwise 10 Crypto Index ETF (BITW) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 30 Sep 2026 story “There’s a new Wall Street TACO index — and this one is saying it’s time for Trump to strike a deal.” Reason on file: GA selected BITW as a RELATED security because its canonical security name directly matches this event's themes: index. This is an explainable DERIVED market relationship, not a claim that the security was named in the source article

State Street Spdr Us Small Cap Low Volatility Index Etf (SMLV)

State Street Spdr Us Small Cap Low Volatility Index Etf (SMLV) is the company in “There’s a new Wall Street TACO index — and this one is saying it’s time for Trump to strike a deal,” the 30 Sep 2026 this story story.

State Street Spdr Us Small Cap Low Volatility Index Etf (SMLV) is on the page because GA selected SMLV as a RELATED security because its canonical security name directly matches this event's themes: street, index. This is an explainable DERIVED market relationship, not a claim that the security was named in the source article

A second company, United States Commodity Index Funds Trust (CPER), is listed for a different reason: GA selected CPER as a RELATED security because its canonical security name directly matches this event's themes: index. This is an explainable DERIVED market relationship, not a claim that the security was named in the source article

Price levels for State Street Spdr Us Small Cap Low Volatility Index Etf (SMLV)

CPER traded between 39.20 and 41.49 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 39.58. KBE traded between 61.81 and 66.63 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 63.14. SMLV traded between 149.25 and 153.95 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 151.33.

What the saved facts support for State Street Spdr Us Small Cap Low Volatility Index Etf (SMLV)

46 out of 100

“There’s a new Wall Street TACO index — and this one is saying it’s time for Trump to strike a deal” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 6 linked companies.