Geopolitics Alpha

Unpacking Trump's deal with Russia to supply oil to global markets

Published . Updated .

Unpacking Trump's deal with Russia to supply oil to global markets WBUR

Directly affected

  • No company is named in this report.

Indirectly affected

  • LMT Lockheed Martin

    Defense contractors get more work when conflict spending rises

  • RTX RTX

    Defense contractors get more work when conflict spending rises

  • NOC Northrop Grumman

    Defense contractors get more work when conflict spending rises

  • XLE Energy Select Sector SPDR

    Energy prices move when Russian supply is at risk

  • GD General Dynamics

    Defense contractors get more work when conflict spending rises

  • ITA iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense

    A fund of aerospace and defense companies

  • XOM Exxon Mobil

    Oil producers earn more when crude prices rise

  • CVX Chevron

    Oil producers earn more when crude prices rise

  • USO United States Oil Fund

    This fund moves with oil prices

  • WEAT Teucrium Wheat

    Wheat prices rise when Black Sea grain is disrupted

Price reaction, T-5 to T+3

TickerT-5T-3T-1T0T+1T+2T+3
LMT-0.61%-2.04%—+0.48%-1.13%+2.44%+4.55%
RTX———————
NOC-1.00%-1.50%—+0.86%+0.11%+3.08%+3.81%
XLE———————
GD+0.12%-1.46%—+1.14%+0.35%+0.99%+1.70%
ITA+0.06%-1.47%—-0.28%-1.26%-1.17%+0.09%
XOM———————
CVX-2.61%-3.22%—+1.43%+2.75%+4.76%+3.48%
USO———————
WEAT———————

Unpacking Trump's deal with Russia to supply oil to global markets WBUR

Source: WBUR

The price since 12 Oct 2026: United States Oil Fund (USO) versus the S&P 500

Since the first closing price after “Unpacking Trump's deal with Russia to supply oil to global markets,” United States Oil Fund (USO) is +5.04%. The S&P 500 fund (SPY) is -1.47% over the same days, a +6.51% difference versus the market. energy stocks (XLE) is +0.92%, a +4.13% difference versus that group of stocks.

CompanyWhenMoveStatus
CVXthat day+1.43%final price
CVXthe next day+2.75%final price
CVXtwo days later+4.76%final price
CVXthree days later+3.48%final price
CVXthree days earlier-3.22%final price
CVXfive days earlier-2.61%final price
GDthat day+1.14%final price
GDthe next day+0.35%final price
GDtwo days later+0.99%final price
GDthree days later+1.70%final price
GDthree days earlier-1.46%final price
GDfive days earlier+0.12%final price
ITAthat day-0.28%final price
ITAthe next day-1.26%final price
ITAtwo days later-1.17%final price
ITAthree days later+0.09%final price
ITAthree days earlier-1.47%final price
ITAfive days earlier+0.06%final price
LMTthat day+0.48%final price
LMTthe next day-1.13%final price
LMTtwo days later+2.44%final price
LMTthree days later+4.55%final price
LMTthree days earlier-2.04%final price
LMTfive days earlier-0.61%final price
NOCthat day+0.86%final price
NOCthe next day+0.11%final price
NOCtwo days later+3.08%final price
NOCthree days later+3.81%final price
NOCthree days earlier-1.50%final price
NOCfive days earlier-1.00%final price
USO
SPY
XLE

Disclosure records for United States Oil Fund (USO) within two months of 12 Oct 2026

Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).

United States Oil Fund (USO) on one side of this energy story

Companies carried with this story

  • USO United States Oil Fund

    In “Unpacking Trump's deal with Russia to supply oil to global markets,” United States Oil Fund (USO) is linked, with no stored direction, high confidence. Reason on file: Oil-supply or crude-price developments can transmit through WTI/Brent proxies and energy producer earnings expectations

  • XOP State Street Spdr S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Etf

    In “Unpacking Trump's deal with Russia to supply oil to global markets,” State Street Spdr S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Etf (XOP) is linked, with no stored direction, high confidence. Reason on file: Oil-supply or crude-price developments can transmit through WTI/Brent proxies and energy producer earnings expectations

  • BNO United States Brent Oil Fund

    United States Brent Oil Fund (BNO) is linked, with no stored direction, high confidence in the 12 Oct 2026 story “Unpacking Trump's deal with Russia to supply oil to global markets.” Reason on file: Oil-supply or crude-price developments can transmit through WTI/Brent proxies and energy producer earnings expectations

  • XLE Select Sector Spdr Tr

    Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) is linked, with no stored direction, high confidence in the 12 Oct 2026 story “Unpacking Trump's deal with Russia to supply oil to global markets.” Reason on file: Oil-supply or crude-price developments can transmit through WTI/Brent proxies and energy producer earnings expectations

  • KGEI Kolibri Global Energy

    Kolibri Global Energy (KGEI) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 12 Oct 2026 story “Unpacking Trump's deal with Russia to supply oil to global markets.” Reason on file: GA selected KGEI as a RELATED security because its canonical security name directly matches this event's themes: energy, global. This is an explainable DERIVED market relationship, not a claim that the security was named in the source article

  • RNW ReNew Energy Global

    For “Unpacking Trump's deal with Russia to supply oil to global markets,” ReNew Energy Global (RNW) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: GA selected RNW as a RELATED security because its canonical security name directly matches this event's themes: energy, global. This is an explainable DERIVED market relationship, not a claim that the security was named in the source article

  • RNWWW Renew Energy Global

    In “Unpacking Trump's deal with Russia to supply oil to global markets,” Renew Energy Global (RNWWW) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: GA selected RNWWW as a RELATED security because its canonical security name directly matches this event's themes: energy, global. This is an explainable DERIVED market relationship, not a claim that the security was named in the source article

  • AEIS Advanced Energy Industries

    In “Unpacking Trump's deal with Russia to supply oil to global markets,” Advanced Energy Industries (AEIS) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: GA selected AEIS as a RELATED security because its canonical security name directly matches this event's themes: energy. This is an explainable DERIVED market relationship, not a claim that the security was named in the source article

How energy news reaches United States Oil Fund (USO)

The 12 Oct 2026 story “Unpacking Trump's deal with Russia to supply oil to global markets” names United States Oil Fund (USO) because of Energy.

The link for United States Oil Fund (USO) is this: Oil-supply or crude-price developments can transmit through WTI/Brent proxies and energy producer earnings expectations

State Street Spdr S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Etf (XOP) is here too. Its reason reads: Oil-supply or crude-price developments can transmit through WTI/Brent proxies and energy producer earnings expectations

The price range for United States Oil Fund (USO), and the dates in the story

BNO traded between 57.39 and 67.79 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 67.10. USO traded between 141.82 and 162.99 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 160.80. XLE traded between 60.95 and 68.51 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 67.80.

How strong the case is around United States Oil Fund (USO)

46 out of 100

“Unpacking Trump's deal with Russia to supply oil to global markets” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 10 linked companies.