80% odds of renewed military attack in Iran, oil risk premium to head higher: Bob McNally
Published . Updated .
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Bob McNally of Rapidan Energy Group sees Brent and WTI crude prices "vaulting above" $100 per barrel, as he expects President Trump to push Iran to abandon its nuclear capabilities as part of his presidential legacy. He adds that his base-case oil price range is $80 to $120 per
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- USO United States Oil Fund-5.0% 30d
United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- XLE Energy Select Sector SPDR+6.9% 30d
Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- ITA iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF+1.1% 30d
iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF: it holds defense and aerospace contractors. Linked by “military” (defense) in this story.
- BWET Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF-3.3% 17d
Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF: it tracks tanker freight rates. Linked by “iran” (tanker shipping) in this story.
- XOM ExxonMobil Holdings-2.7% 17d
ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- CVX Chevron+5.5% 30d
Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- COP ConocoPhillips+3.9% 19d
ConocoPhillips (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- SHEL Shell+3.5% 11d
Shell (crude petroleum and natural gas): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USO | +13.96% | +6.75% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| XLE | +13.47% | +8.12% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| ITA | +2.67% | +5.93% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| BWET | +38.94% | +24.54% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| XOM | +13.27% | +7.37% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| CVX | +10.62% | +5.78% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| COP | +13.68% | +6.58% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| SHEL | +8.57% | +4.08% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
80% odds of renewed military attack in Iran, oil risk premium to head higher: Bob McNally CNBC
Source: CNBC
Energy
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| BWET | three days earlier | +24.54% | final price |
| BWET | five days earlier | +38.94% | final price |
| COP | three days earlier | +6.58% | final price |
| COP | five days earlier | +13.68% | final price |
| CVX | three days earlier | +5.78% | final price |
| CVX | five days earlier | +10.62% | final price |
| ITA | three days earlier | +5.93% | final price |
| ITA | five days earlier | +2.67% | final price |
| SHEL | three days earlier | +4.08% | final price |
| SHEL | five days earlier | +8.57% | final price |
| USO | three days earlier | +6.75% | final price |
| USO | five days earlier | +13.96% | final price |
| XLE | three days earlier | +8.12% | final price |
| XLE | five days earlier | +13.47% | final price |
| XOM | three days earlier | +7.37% | final price |
| XOM | five days earlier | +13.27% | final price |
Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 14 Oct 2026. That is 23 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) (jointly held), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 31 Aug 2026. That is 67 days before publication. Filed 25 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold Chevron (CVX), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 14 Oct 2026. That is 23 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold Chevron (CVX) (jointly held), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 23 Sep 2026. That is 44 days before publication. Filed 13 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar bought Chevron (CVX), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 2 Sep 2026. That is 65 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael T. McCaul sold Conocophillips (COP) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 26 Aug 2026. That is 72 days before publication. Filed 14 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael T. McCaul sold Conocophillips (COP) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 24 Aug 2026. That is 74 days before publication. Filed 14 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Conocophillips (COP), worth $1,000,001 - $5,000,000 on 21 Aug 2026. That is 77 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
How solid the energy case looks
12 out of 100
“80% odds of renewed military attack in Iran, oil risk premium to head higher: Bob McNally” scores 12 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources.