A Democratic Congress could curb the Iran war but not Trump's tariffs, former ambassador says
Published . Updated .
Key takeaways
Market Call
Think this story will push the stock up or down over the next three trading days? Make a free call and see what other readers think. Points are play money with no cash value.
Get these market calls by email
The week's biggest market-moving stories, Congress trades and Trump posts, with the tickers they touch. Free, one email a week.
Free. We only use your email to send the digest, never sell or share it, and every email has a one-click unsubscribe link. See our privacy policy.
This report is about tariffs and trade and defense.
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- XLI Industrial Select Sector SPDR-0.3% 30d
Industrial Select Sector SPDR: it holds companies hit by import costs and trade rules. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.
- XRT SPDR S&P Retail ETF
SPDR S&P Retail ETF: it holds companies hit by import costs and trade rules. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.
- ITA iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF+0.3% 30d
iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF: it holds defense and aerospace contractors. Linked by “war” (defense) in this story.
- USO United States Oil Fund+8.9% 30d
United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “iran” (oil) in this story.
- CAT Caterpillar-24.1% 30d
Caterpillar (construction machinery and equip): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.
- DE Deere-2.4% 30d
Deere (farm machinery and equipment): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.
- WMT Walmart+16.0% 30d
Walmart (variety stores): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.
- NKE Nike+8.4% 30d
Nike (rubber and plastics footwear): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLI | -1.06% | +0.22% | base | +1.55% | after close | after close | after close |
| XRT | -3.55% | -1.68% | base | -1.00% | after close | after close | after close |
| ITA | -3.96% | -0.11% | base | +1.62% | after close | after close | after close |
| USO | +4.37% | +7.30% | base | +0.28% | after close | after close | after close |
| CAT | +16.30% | +5.44% | base | +2.17% | after close | after close | after close |
| DE | -4.18% | -1.10% | base | +0.60% | after close | after close | after close |
| WMT | -6.59% | -5.06% | base | -1.83% | after close | after close | after close |
| NKE | -4.04% | -1.81% | base | -1.81% | after close | after close | after close |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
A Democratic Congress could curb the Iran war but not Trump's tariffs, former ambassador says Fortune
Source: Fortune
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI) since this story, compared with the market
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Caterpillar (CAT) | that day | +2.17% | still updating |
| Caterpillar (CAT) | three days earlier | +5.44% | final price |
| Caterpillar (CAT) | five days earlier | +16.30% | final price |
| Deere (DE) | that day | +0.60% | still updating |
| Deere (DE) | three days earlier | -1.10% | final price |
| Deere (DE) | five days earlier | -4.18% | final price |
| IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) | that day | +1.62% | still updating |
| IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) | three days earlier | -0.11% | final price |
| IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) | five days earlier | -3.96% | final price |
| Nike (NKE) | that day | -1.81% | still updating |
| Nike (NKE) | three days earlier | -1.81% | final price |
| Nike (NKE) | five days earlier | -4.04% | final price |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | that day | +0.28% | still updating |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | three days earlier | +7.30% | final price |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | five days earlier | +4.37% | final price |
| Walmart (WMT) | that day | -1.83% | still updating |
| Walmart (WMT) | three days earlier | -5.06% | final price |
| Walmart (WMT) | five days earlier | -6.59% | final price |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI) | that day | +1.55% | still updating |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI) | three days earlier | +0.22% | final price |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI) | five days earlier | -1.06% | final price |
| Spdr Series Trust (XRT) | that day | -1.00% | still updating |
| Spdr Series Trust (XRT) | three days earlier | -1.68% | final price |
| Spdr Series Trust (XRT) | five days earlier | -3.55% | final price |
Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story
- Rep. Lisa McClain bought Caterpillar (CAT) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 28 Sep 2026. That is 36 days before publication. Filed 12 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold Walmart (WMT) (held by a spouse), worth $50,001 - $100,000 on 2 Oct 2026. That is 32 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Jonathan Jackson sold Walmart (WMT) (jointly held), worth $50,001 - $100,000 on 28 Sep 2026. That is 36 days before publication. Filed 19 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Walmart (WMT) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 25 Sep 2026. That is 39 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Nike (NKE), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 28 Aug 2026. That is 67 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Gilbert Cisneros sold Nike (NKE), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 27 Aug 2026. That is 68 days before publication. Filed 10 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, sold Nike (NKE), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 21 Aug 2026. That is 74 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
Who gains and who loses around Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI)
Companies tied to this story
- XLI Select Sector Spdr Tr
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 3 Nov 2026 story “A Democratic Congress could curb the Iran war but not Trump's tariffs, former ambassador says.” Reason on file: Industrial Select Sector SPDR: it holds companies hit by import costs and trade rules. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story
- XRT Spdr Series Trust
For “A Democratic Congress could curb the Iran war but not Trump's tariffs, former ambassador says,” Spdr Series Trust (XRT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: SPDR S&P Retail ETF: it holds companies hit by import costs and trade rules. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story
- ITA IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF
In “A Democratic Congress could curb the Iran war but not Trump's tariffs, former ambassador says,” IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF: it holds defense and aerospace contractors. Linked by “war” (defense) in this story
- USO United States Oil Fund
For “A Democratic Congress could curb the Iran war but not Trump's tariffs, former ambassador says,” United States Oil Fund (USO) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “iran” (oil) in this story
- CAT Caterpillar
Caterpillar (CAT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 3 Nov 2026 story “A Democratic Congress could curb the Iran war but not Trump's tariffs, former ambassador says.” Reason on file: Caterpillar (construction machinery and equip): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story
- DE Deere
For “A Democratic Congress could curb the Iran war but not Trump's tariffs, former ambassador says,” Deere (DE) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Deere (farm machinery and equipment): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story
- WMT Walmart
In “A Democratic Congress could curb the Iran war but not Trump's tariffs, former ambassador says,” Walmart (WMT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Walmart (variety stores): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story
- NKE Nike
For “A Democratic Congress could curb the Iran war but not Trump's tariffs, former ambassador says,” Nike (NKE) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Nike (rubber and plastics footwear): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI) and the defense link
On 3 Nov 2026, “A Democratic Congress could curb the Iran war but not Trump's tariffs, former ambassador says” is the story that connects Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI) to Defense.
What ties Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI) to the headline is this: Industrial Select Sector SPDR: it holds companies hit by import costs and trade rules. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story
A second company, Spdr Series Trust (XRT), is listed for a different reason: SPDR S&P Retail ETF: it holds companies hit by import costs and trade rules. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story
Dates in the story, and the Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI) price range
ITA traded between 197.59 and 215.76 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 214.70. XLI traded between 163.00 and 172.33 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 169.73.
How strong the case is around Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI)
46 out of 100Price not final
“A Democratic Congress could curb the Iran war but not Trump's tariffs, former ambassador says” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 8 linked companies. The price is not final yet.