A natural field experiment on the effectiveness of economic sanctions before and after the Russian invasion of Ukraine
Published . Updated .
Key takeaways
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A field experiment by Findley et al. finds that financial sanctions on Russian officials had little effect on access to banking and corporate services before the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, but significantly reduced access afterwards.
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- ITA iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF+1.1% 30d
iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF: it holds defense and aerospace contractors. Linked by “invasion” (defense) in this story.
- XAR SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF-4.4% 30d
SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF: it holds defense and aerospace contractors. Linked by “invasion” (defense) in this story.
- USO United States Oil Fund-1.1% 30d
United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “russian” (oil) in this story.
- XLF Financial Select Sector SPDR+0.5% 30d
Financial Select Sector SPDR: it holds banks. Linked by “banking” (banks) in this story.
- LMT Lockheed Martin+9.4% 30d
Lockheed Martin (guided missiles and space vehicles and parts): defense contractors gain when military spending rises. Linked by “invasion” (defense) in this story.
- RTX Rtx-2.0% 14d
Rtx (aircraft engines and engine parts): defense contractors gain when military spending rises. Linked by “invasion” (defense) in this story.
- NOC Northrop Grumman+3.8% 30d
Northrop Grumman (search, detection, navigation, guidance, aeronautical sys): defense contractors gain when military spending rises. Linked by “invasion” (defense) in this story.
- GD General Dynamics+6.0% 30d
General Dynamics (ship and boat building and repairing): defense contractors gain when military spending rises. Linked by “invasion” (defense) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ITA | +3.67% | +2.77% | base | +3.82% | after close | after close | after close |
| XAR | +2.91% | +0.53% | base | +5.46% | after close | after close | after close |
| USO | +5.62% | -2.06% | base | -3.90% | after close | after close | after close |
| XLF | +0.66% | +3.52% | base | +1.43% | after close | after close | after close |
| LMT | +13.41% | +4.87% | base | +3.60% | after close | after close | after close |
| RTX | +7.00% | +4.71% | base | +3.58% | after close | after close | after close |
| NOC | +5.74% | -0.01% | base | +2.53% | after close | after close | after close |
| GD | +5.43% | +3.00% | base | +2.32% | after close | after close | after close |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
A natural field experiment on the effectiveness of economic sanctions before and after the Russian invasion of Ukraine Nature
Source: Nature
The price since 9 Nov 2026: IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) versus the S&P 500
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| General Dynamics (GD) | that day | +2.32% | final price |
| General Dynamics (GD) | three days earlier | +3.00% | final price |
| General Dynamics (GD) | five days earlier | +5.43% | final price |
| IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) | that day | +3.82% | final price |
| IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) | three days earlier | +2.77% | final price |
| IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) | five days earlier | +3.67% | final price |
| Lockheed Martin (LMT) | that day | +3.60% | final price |
| Lockheed Martin (LMT) | three days earlier | +4.87% | final price |
| Lockheed Martin (LMT) | five days earlier | +13.41% | final price |
| Northrop Grumman (NOC) | that day | +2.53% | final price |
| Northrop Grumman (NOC) | three days earlier | -0.01% | final price |
| Northrop Grumman (NOC) | five days earlier | +5.74% | final price |
| Rtx (RTX) | that day | +3.58% | final price |
| Rtx (RTX) | three days earlier | +4.71% | final price |
| Rtx (RTX) | five days earlier | +7.00% | final price |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | that day | -3.90% | final price |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | three days earlier | -2.06% | final price |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | five days earlier | +5.62% | final price |
| Spdr Series Trust (XAR) | that day | +5.46% | final price |
| Spdr Series Trust (XAR) | three days earlier | +0.53% | final price |
| Spdr Series Trust (XAR) | five days earlier | +2.91% | final price |
| XLF | that day | +1.43% | final price |
| XLF | three days earlier | +3.52% | final price |
| XLF | five days earlier | +0.66% | final price |
Members of Congress who traded IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) near this story
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold Lockheed Martin (LMT) (jointly held), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 23 Sep 2026. That is 47 days before publication. Filed 13 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold Lockheed Martin (LMT) (jointly held), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 23 Sep 2026. That is 47 days before publication. Filed 13 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold Lockheed Martin (LMT) (jointly held), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 17 Sep 2026. That is 53 days before publication. Filed 13 Oct 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
Who collects and who pays in defense
Companies tied to this story
- ITA IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF
For “A natural field experiment on the effectiveness of economic sanctions before and after the Russian invasion of Ukraine,” IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF: it holds defense and aerospace contractors. Linked by “invasion” (defense) in this story
- XAR Spdr Series Trust
In “A natural field experiment on the effectiveness of economic sanctions before and after the Russian invasion of Ukraine,” Spdr Series Trust (XAR) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF: it holds defense and aerospace contractors. Linked by “invasion” (defense) in this story
- USO United States Oil Fund
United States Oil Fund (USO) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 9 Nov 2026 story “A natural field experiment on the effectiveness of economic sanctions before and after the Russian invasion of Ukraine.” Reason on file: United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “russian” (oil) in this story
- UNG United States Natural Gas Fund
For “A natural field experiment on the effectiveness of economic sanctions before and after the Russian invasion of Ukraine,” United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: United States Natural Gas Fund: it follows natural-gas prices. Linked by “russian” (natural gas) in this story
- LMT Lockheed Martin
In “A natural field experiment on the effectiveness of economic sanctions before and after the Russian invasion of Ukraine,” Lockheed Martin (LMT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Lockheed Martin (guided missiles and space vehicles and parts): defense contractors gain when military spending rises. Linked by “invasion” (defense) in this story
- RTX Rtx
In “A natural field experiment on the effectiveness of economic sanctions before and after the Russian invasion of Ukraine,” Rtx (RTX) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Rtx (aircraft engines and engine parts): defense contractors gain when military spending rises. Linked by “invasion” (defense) in this story
- NOC Northrop Grumman
For “A natural field experiment on the effectiveness of economic sanctions before and after the Russian invasion of Ukraine,” Northrop Grumman (NOC) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Northrop Grumman (search, detection, navigation, guidance, aeronautical sys): defense contractors gain when military spending rises. Linked by “invasion” (defense) in this story
- GD General Dynamics
For “A natural field experiment on the effectiveness of economic sanctions before and after the Russian invasion of Ukraine,” General Dynamics (GD) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: General Dynamics (ship and boat building and repairing): defense contractors gain when military spending rises. Linked by “invasion” (defense) in this story
How defense news reaches IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA)
IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) is the company in “A natural field experiment on the effectiveness of economic sanctions before and after the Russian invasion of Ukraine,” the 9 Nov 2026 Defense story.
For IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA), the reason on file says iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF: it holds defense and aerospace contractors. Linked by “invasion” (defense) in this story
Also listed, Spdr Series Trust (XAR): SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF: it holds defense and aerospace contractors. Linked by “invasion” (defense) in this story
Dates and price levels for IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA)
ITA traded between 197.59 and 218.73 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 216.38. USO traded between 143.02 and 171.80 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 148.41. XAR traded between 210.89 and 237.55 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 231.04.
How solid the defense case looks
46 out of 100
“A natural field experiment on the effectiveness of economic sanctions before and after the Russian invasion of Ukraine” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 8 linked companies.