A strong El Niño could raise inflation in the US by 1 percentage point in 2027 – Fed
Published . Updated .
УНН Economy ✎ The San Francisco Fed forecasts a possible 1-point increase in US inflation in 2027 due to the shift from El Niño to La Niña. At the same time, employ…
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF-1.6% 30d
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story.
- IEF iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF-0.8% 30d
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story.
- TIP iShares TIPS Bond ETF-0.5% 30d
iShares TIPS Bond ETF: it is a common hedge when prices rise. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story.
- WMT Walmart+14.9% 30d
Walmart (variety stores): big consumer-goods sellers feel price rises in costs and shopper demand. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story.
- JPM JPMorgan Chase-4.3% 30d
JPMorgan Chase (national commercial banks): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story.
- COST Costco Wholesale+12.7% 30d
Costco Wholesale (variety stores): big consumer-goods sellers feel price rises in costs and shopper demand. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story.
- BAC Bank of America-11.1% 30d
Bank of America (national commercial banks): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story.
- PG The Procter & Gamble+10.2% 30d
The Procter & Gamble (soap, detergents, cleang preparations, perfumes, cosmetics): big consumer-goods sellers feel price rises in costs and shopper demand. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TLT | -0.10% | -0.30% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| IEF | -0.44% | -0.28% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| TIP | -0.07% | +0.06% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| WMTNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| JPM | -1.44% | +0.85% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| COST | -4.67% | -4.31% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| BAC | +2.23% | +3.18% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| PGNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
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A strong El Niño could raise inflation in the US by 1 percentage point in 2027 – Fed Українські Національні Новини (УНН)
Source: 블루밍비트
The price since 3 Nov 2026: Ishares Tr (TLT) versus the S&P 500
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bank Of America (BAC) | three days earlier | +3.18% | final price |
| Bank Of America (BAC) | five days earlier | +2.23% | final price |
| Costco Wholesale (COST) | three days earlier | -4.31% | final price |
| Costco Wholesale (COST) | five days earlier | -4.67% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (IEF) | three days earlier | -0.28% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (IEF) | five days earlier | -0.44% | final price |
| Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) | three days earlier | +0.85% | final price |
| Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) | five days earlier | -1.44% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (TIP) | three days earlier | +0.06% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (TIP) | five days earlier | -0.07% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (TLT) | three days earlier | -0.30% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (TLT) | five days earlier | -0.10% | final price |
Congressional trades in the stocks in this story
- Sen. John Boozman bought Ishares Tr (IEF) (jointly held), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 9 Sep 2026. That is 55 days before publication. Filed 21 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold Walmart (WMT) (held by a spouse), worth $50,001 - $100,000 on 2 Oct 2026. That is 32 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Jonathan Jackson sold Walmart (WMT) (jointly held), worth $50,001 - $100,000 on 28 Sep 2026. That is 36 days before publication. Filed 19 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Walmart (WMT) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 25 Sep 2026. That is 39 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse sold Jpmorgan Chase (JPM), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 4 Sep 2026. That is 60 days before publication. Filed 1 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse sold Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) (held by a spouse), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 4 Sep 2026. That is 60 days before publication. Filed 1 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) (held by a spouse), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 27 Aug 2026. That is 68 days before publication. Filed 4 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold Costco Wholesale (COST), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 13 Oct 2026. That is 21 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold Costco Wholesale (COST) (held by a spouse), worth $250,001 - $500,000 on 2 Oct 2026. That is 32 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Costco Wholesale (COST) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 25 Sep 2026. That is 39 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna sold Bank Of America (BAC) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 9 Sep 2026. That is 55 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Laurel Lee sold Bank Of America (BAC) (held by a spouse), worth $50,001 - $100,000 on 24 Aug 2026. That is 71 days before publication. Filed 16 Oct 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
Who gains and who loses around Ishares Tr (TLT)
Companies tied to this story
- TLT Ishares Tr
For “A strong El Niño could raise inflation in the US by 1 percentage point in 2027 – Fed,” Ishares Tr (TLT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story
- IEF Ishares Tr
For “A strong El Niño could raise inflation in the US by 1 percentage point in 2027 – Fed,” Ishares Tr (IEF) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story
- TIP Ishares Tr
Ishares Tr (TIP) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 3 Nov 2026 story “A strong El Niño could raise inflation in the US by 1 percentage point in 2027 – Fed.” Reason on file: iShares TIPS Bond ETF: it is a common hedge when prices rise. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story
- WMT Walmart
For “A strong El Niño could raise inflation in the US by 1 percentage point in 2027 – Fed,” Walmart (WMT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Walmart (variety stores): big consumer-goods sellers feel price rises in costs and shopper demand. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story
- JPM Jpmorgan Chase
For “A strong El Niño could raise inflation in the US by 1 percentage point in 2027 – Fed,” Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: JPMorgan Chase (national commercial banks): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story
- COST Costco Wholesale
Costco Wholesale (COST) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 3 Nov 2026 story “A strong El Niño could raise inflation in the US by 1 percentage point in 2027 – Fed.” Reason on file: Costco Wholesale (variety stores): big consumer-goods sellers feel price rises in costs and shopper demand. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story
- BAC Bank Of America
Bank Of America (BAC) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 3 Nov 2026 story “A strong El Niño could raise inflation in the US by 1 percentage point in 2027 – Fed.” Reason on file: Bank of America (national commercial banks): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story
- PG Procter & Gamble
For “A strong El Niño could raise inflation in the US by 1 percentage point in 2027 – Fed,” Procter & Gamble (PG) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: The Procter & Gamble (soap, detergents, cleang preparations, perfumes, cosmetics): big consumer-goods sellers feel price rises in costs and shopper demand. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story
Ishares Tr (TLT)
On 3 Nov 2026, “A strong El Niño could raise inflation in the US by 1 percentage point in 2027 – Fed” is the story that connects Ishares Tr (TLT) to this story.
What ties Ishares Tr (TLT) to the headline is this: iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story
Also listed, Ishares Tr (IEF): iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story
Dates and price levels for Ishares Tr (TLT)
IEF traded between 88.64 and 91.23 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 90.08. TIP traded between 103.77 and 105.67 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 105.27. TLT traded between 76.44 and 81.94 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 79.46.
What the saved facts support for Ishares Tr (TLT)
54 out of 100
“A strong El Niño could raise inflation in the US by 1 percentage point in 2027 – Fed” scores 54 out of 100. The score uses 2 sources, and 8 linked companies.