Adapt or die: Why oil refineries must evolve to survive
Published . Updated .
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The energy transition is a ‘survival of the fittest’ challenge for refineries. Declining global oil demand in future means that closures are inevitable. In this intensely competitive arena, which refineries are best positioned to survive – and even thrive?
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- USO United States Oil Fund-0.1% 30d
United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- XLE Energy Select Sector SPDR+6.9% 30d
Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- CRAK VanEck Oil Refiners ETF
VanEck Oil Refiners ETF: it holds refiners, whose margins move with fuel prices. Linked by “refineries” (refining) in this story.
- XOM ExxonMobil Holdings-2.7% 17d
ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- CVX Chevron+4.2% 30d
Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- VLO Valero Energy-9.3% 30d
Valero Energy (petroleum refining): refiners' margins move with crude and fuel prices. Linked by “refineries” (refining) in this story.
- MPC Marathon Petroleum-4.0% 13d
Marathon Petroleum (petroleum refining): refiners' margins move with crude and fuel prices. Linked by “refineries” (refining) in this story.
- COP ConocoPhillips+6.2% 19d
ConocoPhillips (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USO | +5.62% | -2.06% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| XLE | +9.12% | +3.08% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| CRAK | +9.70% | +5.65% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| XOM | +8.37% | +2.16% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| CVX | +7.15% | +2.05% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| VLO | +10.15% | +5.46% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| MPC | +15.44% | +5.26% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| COP | +7.74% | +0.44% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
Adapt or die: Why oil refineries must evolve to survive Wood Mackenzie
Source: Wood Mackenzie
The price since 7 Nov 2026: United States Oil Fund (USO) versus the S&P 500
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conocophillips (COP) | three days earlier | +0.44% | final price |
| Conocophillips (COP) | five days earlier | +7.74% | final price |
| Vaneck Etf Trust (CRAK) | three days earlier | +5.65% | final price |
| Vaneck Etf Trust (CRAK) | five days earlier | +9.70% | final price |
| Chevron (CVX) | three days earlier | +2.05% | final price |
| Chevron (CVX) | five days earlier | +7.15% | final price |
| Marathon Petroleum (MPC) | three days earlier | +5.26% | final price |
| Marathon Petroleum (MPC) | five days earlier | +15.44% | final price |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | three days earlier | -2.06% | final price |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | five days earlier | +5.62% | final price |
| Valero Energy (VLO) | three days earlier | +5.46% | final price |
| Valero Energy (VLO) | five days earlier | +10.15% | final price |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) | three days earlier | +3.08% | final price |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) | five days earlier | +9.12% | final price |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | three days earlier | +2.16% | final price |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | five days earlier | +8.37% | final price |
Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 14 Oct 2026. That is 24 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) (jointly held), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 31 Aug 2026. That is 68 days before publication. Filed 25 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold Chevron (CVX), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 14 Oct 2026. That is 24 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold Chevron (CVX) (jointly held), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 23 Sep 2026. That is 45 days before publication. Filed 13 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar bought Chevron (CVX), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 2 Sep 2026. That is 66 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. David J. Taylor sold Marathon Petroleum (MPC), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 15 Oct 2026. That is 23 days before publication. Filed 29 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. David J. Taylor sold Marathon Petroleum (MPC), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 22 Sep 2026. That is 46 days before publication. Filed 1 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael T. McCaul sold Conocophillips (COP) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 26 Aug 2026. That is 73 days before publication. Filed 14 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael T. McCaul sold Conocophillips (COP) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 24 Aug 2026. That is 75 days before publication. Filed 14 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Conocophillips (COP), worth $1,000,001 - $5,000,000 on 21 Aug 2026. That is 78 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
Who collects and who pays in energy
Companies tied to this story
- USO United States Oil Fund
In “Adapt or die: Why oil refineries must evolve to survive,” United States Oil Fund (USO) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- XLE Select Sector Spdr Tr
For “Adapt or die: Why oil refineries must evolve to survive,” Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- CRAK Vaneck Etf Trust
In “Adapt or die: Why oil refineries must evolve to survive,” Vaneck Etf Trust (CRAK) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: VanEck Oil Refiners ETF: it holds refiners, whose margins move with fuel prices. Linked by “refineries” (refining) in this story
- XOM ExxonMobil Holdings
ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 7 Nov 2026 story “Adapt or die: Why oil refineries must evolve to survive.” Reason on file: ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- CVX Chevron
For “Adapt or die: Why oil refineries must evolve to survive,” Chevron (CVX) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- VLO Valero Energy
In “Adapt or die: Why oil refineries must evolve to survive,” Valero Energy (VLO) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Valero Energy (petroleum refining): refiners' margins move with crude and fuel prices. Linked by “refineries” (refining) in this story
- MPC Marathon Petroleum
In “Adapt or die: Why oil refineries must evolve to survive,” Marathon Petroleum (MPC) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Marathon Petroleum (petroleum refining): refiners' margins move with crude and fuel prices. Linked by “refineries” (refining) in this story
- COP Conocophillips
Conocophillips (COP) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 7 Nov 2026 story “Adapt or die: Why oil refineries must evolve to survive.” Reason on file: ConocoPhillips (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
United States Oil Fund (USO) and the energy link
United States Oil Fund (USO) is the company in “Adapt or die: Why oil refineries must evolve to survive,” the 7 Nov 2026 Energy story.
The link for United States Oil Fund (USO) is this: United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) is here too. Its reason reads: Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
What this energy story puts on the calendar
USO traded between 143.02 and 171.80 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 148.22. XLE traded between 63.05 and 70.15 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 66.70.
What the saved facts support for United States Oil Fund (USO)
46 out of 100
“Adapt or die: Why oil refineries must evolve to survive” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 8 linked companies.