Geopolitics Alpha

Algoma Steel starts second EAF as Q3 shipments fall 65.5% on US tariffs and outage

Published . Updated .

Key takeaways

  • Exposed: XLI, XRT, SLX, CAT, DE
  • Market reaction: price tracking starts with the next trading session.

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GEOPOLITICS ALPHAAlgoma Steel starts second EAF asQ3 shipments fall 65.5% on UStariffs and outageASTLEAFGEOPOLITICS ALPHA

This report is about tariffs and trade and steel.

Directly affected

  • ASTL Algoma Steel Group

    Named in this report.

  • EAF Graftech International+56.7% 9d

    Named in this report.

Indirectly affected

  • XLI Industrial Select Sector SPDR-0.3% 30d

    Industrial Select Sector SPDR: it holds companies hit by import costs and trade rules. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.

  • XRT SPDR S&P Retail ETF

    SPDR S&P Retail ETF: it holds companies hit by import costs and trade rules. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.

  • SLX VanEck Steel ETF-2.2% 15d

    VanEck Steel ETF: it holds steelmakers. Linked by “steel” (steel) in this story.

  • CAT Caterpillar-23.2% 30d

    Caterpillar (construction machinery and equip): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.

  • DE Deere-0.6% 30d

    Deere (farm machinery and equipment): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.

  • WMT Walmart+12.9% 30d

    Walmart (variety stores): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.

  • NKE Nike+6.7% 30d

    Nike (rubber and plastics footwear): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.

  • NUE Nucor+10.7% 30d

    Nucor (steel works, blast furnaces and rolling mills (coke ovens)): steel prices and trade rules drive steelmakers' profits. Linked by “steel” (steel) in this story.

Price reaction, T-5 to T+3

TickerT-5T-3T-1T0T+1T+2T+3
ASTL-7.04%-10.42%baseafter closeafter closeafter closeafter close
EAF+4.59%+2.15%baseafter closeafter closeafter closeafter close
XLI-1.66%-2.29%baseafter closeafter closeafter closeafter close
XRT-2.30%-0.06%baseafter closeafter closeafter closeafter close
SLX+0.29%+0.29%baseafter closeafter closeafter closeafter close
CAT+14.53%-0.17%baseafter closeafter closeafter closeafter close
DE-3.81%+1.40%baseafter closeafter closeafter closeafter close
WMT-4.79%-1.04%baseafter closeafter closeafter closeafter close
NKE-3.40%+0.56%baseafter closeafter closeafter closeafter close
NUE-0.72%-0.05%baseafter closeafter closeafter closeafter close

Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.

Algoma Steel starts second EAF as Q3 shipments fall 65.5% on US tariffs and outage Shanghai Metals Market

Source: Shanghai Metals Market

The price since 4 Nov 2026: Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI) versus the S&P 500

CompanyWhenMoveStatus
ASTLthree days earlier-10.42%final price
ASTLfive days earlier-7.04%final price
Caterpillar (CAT)three days earlier-0.17%final price
Caterpillar (CAT)five days earlier+14.53%final price
Deere (DE)three days earlier+1.40%final price
Deere (DE)five days earlier-3.81%final price
EAFthree days earlier+2.15%final price
EAFfive days earlier+4.59%final price
Nike (NKE)three days earlier+0.56%final price
Nike (NKE)five days earlier-3.40%final price
Nucor (NUE)three days earlier-0.05%final price
Nucor (NUE)five days earlier-0.72%final price
Vaneck Etf Trust (SLX)three days earlier+0.29%final price
Vaneck Etf Trust (SLX)five days earlier+0.29%final price
Walmart (WMT)three days earlier-1.04%final price
Walmart (WMT)five days earlier-4.79%final price
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI)three days earlier-2.29%final price
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI)five days earlier-1.66%final price
Spdr Series Trust (XRT)three days earlier-0.06%final price
Spdr Series Trust (XRT)five days earlier-2.30%final price

Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story

Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).

Who gains and who loses around Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI)

Companies tied to this story

  • XLI Select Sector Spdr Tr

    Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 4 Nov 2026 story “Algoma Steel starts second EAF as Q3 shipments fall 65.5% on US tariffs and outage.” Reason on file: Industrial Select Sector SPDR: it holds companies hit by import costs and trade rules. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story

  • XRT Spdr Series Trust

    Spdr Series Trust (XRT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 4 Nov 2026 story “Algoma Steel starts second EAF as Q3 shipments fall 65.5% on US tariffs and outage.” Reason on file: SPDR S&P Retail ETF: it holds companies hit by import costs and trade rules. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story

  • SLX Vaneck Etf Trust

    Vaneck Etf Trust (SLX) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 4 Nov 2026 story “Algoma Steel starts second EAF as Q3 shipments fall 65.5% on US tariffs and outage.” Reason on file: VanEck Steel ETF: it holds steelmakers. Linked by “steel” (steel) in this story

  • CAT Caterpillar

    For “Algoma Steel starts second EAF as Q3 shipments fall 65.5% on US tariffs and outage,” Caterpillar (CAT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Caterpillar (construction machinery and equip): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story

  • DE Deere

    Deere (DE) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 4 Nov 2026 story “Algoma Steel starts second EAF as Q3 shipments fall 65.5% on US tariffs and outage.” Reason on file: Deere (farm machinery and equipment): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story

  • WMT Walmart

    Walmart (WMT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 4 Nov 2026 story “Algoma Steel starts second EAF as Q3 shipments fall 65.5% on US tariffs and outage.” Reason on file: Walmart (variety stores): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story

  • NKE Nike

    In “Algoma Steel starts second EAF as Q3 shipments fall 65.5% on US tariffs and outage,” Nike (NKE) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Nike (rubber and plastics footwear): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story

  • NUE Nucor

    Nucor (NUE) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 4 Nov 2026 story “Algoma Steel starts second EAF as Q3 shipments fall 65.5% on US tariffs and outage.” Reason on file: Nucor (steel works, blast furnaces and rolling mills (coke ovens)): steel prices and trade rules drive steelmakers' profits. Linked by “steel” (steel) in this story

Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI)

The 4 Nov 2026 story “Algoma Steel starts second EAF as Q3 shipments fall 65.5% on US tariffs and outage” names Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI) because of this story.

The link for Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI) is this: Industrial Select Sector SPDR: it holds companies hit by import costs and trade rules. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story

A second company, Spdr Series Trust (XRT), is listed for a different reason: SPDR S&P Retail ETF: it holds companies hit by import costs and trade rules. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story

Dates and price levels for Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI)

SLX traded between 101.26 and 107.05 across 15 sessions. The latest close on file is 103.58. XLI traded between 163.00 and 172.33 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 169.73.

What the saved facts support for Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI)

46 out of 100

“Algoma Steel starts second EAF as Q3 shipments fall 65.5% on US tariffs and outage” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 8 linked companies.