Geopolitics Alpha

Americans, farmers voted against tariffs, trade wars and inflation

Published . Updated .

Key takeaways

  • Exposed: XLI, XRT, DBA, TIP, CAT
  • Market reaction: XRT +5.5% on the day; XLI −1.1% on the day; NKE +5.2% on the day

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DEFENSEAmericans, farmers voted againsttariffs, trade wars and inflationGEOPOLITICS ALPHA

This report is about tariffs and trade and grains and farm goods.

Directly affected

  • No company is named in this report.

Indirectly affected

  • XLI Industrial Select Sector SPDR-0.3% 30d

    Industrial Select Sector SPDR: it holds companies hit by import costs and trade rules. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.

  • XRT SPDR S&P Retail ETF

    SPDR S&P Retail ETF: it holds companies hit by import costs and trade rules. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.

  • DBA Invesco DB Agriculture Fund-6.1% 30d

    Invesco DB Agriculture Fund: it follows farm commodity prices. Linked by “farmers” (grains and farm goods) in this story.

  • TIP iShares TIPS Bond ETF-0.4% 30d

    iShares TIPS Bond ETF: it is a common hedge when prices rise. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story.

  • CAT Caterpillar-23.2% 30d

    Caterpillar (construction machinery and equip): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.

  • DE Deere-2.9% 30d

    Deere (farm machinery and equipment): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.

  • WMT Walmart+12.9% 30d

    Walmart (variety stores): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.

  • NKE Nike+6.7% 30d

    Nike (rubber and plastics footwear): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.

Price reaction, T-5 to T+3

TickerT-5T-3T-1T0T+1T+2T+3
XLI-1.66%-2.29%base-1.12%after closeafter closeafter close
XRT-2.30%-0.06%base+5.53%after closeafter closeafter close
DBA+2.11%+1.22%base-0.43%after closeafter closeafter close
TIP+0.16%+0.57%base-0.01%after closeafter closeafter close
CAT+14.53%-0.17%base-5.23%after closeafter closeafter close
DE-3.81%+1.40%base+1.55%after closeafter closeafter close
WMT-4.79%-1.04%base+3.54%after closeafter closeafter close
NKE-3.40%+0.56%base+5.24%after closeafter closeafter close

Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.

Americans, farmers voted against tariffs, trade wars and inflation The Western Producer

Source: The Western Producer

Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI) compared with industrial stocks (XLI) since 5 Nov 2026

CompanyWhenMoveStatus
Caterpillar (CAT)that day-5.23%final price
Caterpillar (CAT)three days earlier-0.17%final price
Caterpillar (CAT)five days earlier+14.53%final price
Invesco Db Agriculture Fund (DBA)that day-0.43%final price
Invesco Db Agriculture Fund (DBA)three days earlier+1.22%final price
Invesco Db Agriculture Fund (DBA)five days earlier+2.11%final price
Deere (DE)that day+1.55%final price
Deere (DE)three days earlier+1.40%final price
Deere (DE)five days earlier-3.81%final price
Nike (NKE)that day+5.24%final price
Nike (NKE)three days earlier+0.56%final price
Nike (NKE)five days earlier-3.40%final price
Ishares Tr (TIP)that day-0.01%final price
Ishares Tr (TIP)three days earlier+0.57%final price
Ishares Tr (TIP)five days earlier+0.16%final price
Walmart (WMT)that day+3.54%final price
Walmart (WMT)three days earlier-1.04%final price
Walmart (WMT)five days earlier-4.79%final price
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI)that day-1.12%final price
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI)three days earlier-2.29%final price
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI)five days earlier-1.66%final price
Spdr Series Trust (XRT)that day+5.53%final price
Spdr Series Trust (XRT)three days earlier-0.06%final price
Spdr Series Trust (XRT)five days earlier-2.30%final price

Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story

Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).

Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI) on one side of this defense story

Companies carried with this story

  • XLI Select Sector Spdr Tr

    For “Americans, farmers voted against tariffs, trade wars and inflation,” Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Industrial Select Sector SPDR: it holds companies hit by import costs and trade rules. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story

  • XRT Spdr Series Trust

    Spdr Series Trust (XRT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 5 Nov 2026 story “Americans, farmers voted against tariffs, trade wars and inflation.” Reason on file: SPDR S&P Retail ETF: it holds companies hit by import costs and trade rules. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story

  • DBA Invesco Db Agriculture Fund

    In “Americans, farmers voted against tariffs, trade wars and inflation,” Invesco Db Agriculture Fund (DBA) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Invesco DB Agriculture Fund: it follows farm commodity prices. Linked by “farmers” (grains and farm goods) in this story

  • TIP Ishares Tr

    For “Americans, farmers voted against tariffs, trade wars and inflation,” Ishares Tr (TIP) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: iShares TIPS Bond ETF: it is a common hedge when prices rise. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story

  • CAT Caterpillar

    For “Americans, farmers voted against tariffs, trade wars and inflation,” Caterpillar (CAT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Caterpillar (construction machinery and equip): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story

  • DE Deere

    For “Americans, farmers voted against tariffs, trade wars and inflation,” Deere (DE) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Deere (farm machinery and equipment): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story

  • WMT Walmart

    Walmart (WMT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 5 Nov 2026 story “Americans, farmers voted against tariffs, trade wars and inflation.” Reason on file: Walmart (variety stores): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story

  • NKE Nike

    For “Americans, farmers voted against tariffs, trade wars and inflation,” Nike (NKE) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Nike (rubber and plastics footwear): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story

Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI) and the defense link

The 5 Nov 2026 story “Americans, farmers voted against tariffs, trade wars and inflation” names Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI) because of Defense.

What ties Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI) to the headline is this: Industrial Select Sector SPDR: it holds companies hit by import costs and trade rules. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story

A second company, Spdr Series Trust (XRT), is listed for a different reason: SPDR S&P Retail ETF: it holds companies hit by import costs and trade rules. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story

Price levels for Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI)

DBA traded between 26.80 and 28.86 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 26.80. XLI traded between 163.00 and 172.33 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 169.73.

How strong the case is around Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI)

46 out of 100

“Americans, farmers voted against tariffs, trade wars and inflation” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 8 linked companies.