[Analysis] Basra to Ceyhan: Iraq's 2.5 Million Barrel Escape Route
Published . Updated .
![[Analysis] Basra to Ceyhan: Iraq's 2.5 Million Barrel Escape Route](https://www.pipeline-journal.net/sites/default/files/styles/social_1200/public/News/Rendering%20of%20a%20pipeline%20with%20the%20flag%20of%20Iraq%20%28Ink%20Drop%29_4.png.jpeg?itok=Kgau4D9-)
For decades, Iraq’s economic lifeblood has flowed almost exclusively through a single geographic eye of a needle: the Strait of Hormuz.
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- USO United States Oil Fund+13.9% 30d
United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “barrel” (oil) in this story.
- XLE Energy Select Sector SPDR+12.1% 30d
Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “barrel” (oil) in this story.
- BWET Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF-3.3% 17d
Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF: it tracks tanker freight rates. Linked by “barrel” (tanker shipping) in this story.
- XOM ExxonMobil Holdings+13.4% 16d
ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “barrel” (oil) in this story.
- FRO Frontline+14.2% 30d
Frontline (deep sea foreign transportation of freight): tanker owners earn more when more crude has to move by sea. Linked by “barrel” (tanker shipping) in this story.
- INSW International Seaways+1.7% 11d
International Seaways (water transportation): tanker owners earn more when more crude has to move by sea. Linked by “barrel” (tanker shipping) in this story.
- CVX Chevron+15.7% 30d
Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “barrel” (oil) in this story.
- COP ConocoPhillips+8.3% 30d
ConocoPhillips (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “barrel” (oil) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USO | -2.52% | -0.26% | base | +0.32% | +1.30% | after close | after close |
| XLE | -1.29% | +1.72% | base | +0.37% | +2.25% | after close | after close |
| BWETNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| XOM | -2.14% | +1.35% | base | +0.18% | +2.84% | after close | after close |
| FRO | -7.71% | -0.56% | base | +1.87% | +2.38% | after close | after close |
| INSW | -2.92% | +1.80% | base | +1.70% | -0.14% | after close | after close |
| CVX | -1.18% | +1.19% | base | +0.93% | +2.77% | after close | after close |
| COP | -2.27% | +1.58% | base | +0.21% | — | after close | after close |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
Market Call
Think this story will push the stock up or down over the next three trading days? Make a free call and see what other readers think. Points are play money with no cash value.
[Analysis] Basra to Ceyhan: Iraq's 2.5 Million Barrel Escape Route Pipeline Technology Journal
Source: Pipeline Technology Journal
Strait of Hormuz
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| COP | that day | +0.21% | final price |
| COP | three days earlier | +1.58% | final price |
| COP | five days earlier | -2.27% | final price |
| CVX | that day | +0.93% | final price |
| CVX | the next day | +2.77% | final price |
| CVX | three days earlier | +1.19% | final price |
| CVX | five days earlier | -1.18% | final price |
| FRO | that day | +1.87% | final price |
| FRO | the next day | +2.38% | final price |
| FRO | three days earlier | -0.56% | final price |
| FRO | five days earlier | -7.71% | final price |
| INSW | that day | +1.70% | final price |
| INSW | the next day | -0.14% | final price |
| INSW | three days earlier | +1.80% | final price |
| INSW | five days earlier | -2.92% | final price |
| USO | that day | +0.32% | final price |
| USO | the next day | +1.30% | final price |
| USO | three days earlier | -0.26% | final price |
| USO | five days earlier | -2.52% | final price |
| XLE | that day | +0.37% | final price |
| XLE | the next day | +2.25% | final price |
| XLE | three days earlier | +1.72% | final price |
| XLE | five days earlier | -1.29% | final price |
| XOM | that day | +0.18% | final price |
| XOM | the next day | +2.84% | final price |
| XOM | three days earlier | +1.35% | final price |
| XOM | five days earlier | -2.14% | final price |
Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 14 Oct 2026. That is 15 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) (jointly held), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 31 Aug 2026. That is 59 days before publication. Filed 25 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM), worth $250,001 - $500,000 on 31 Jul 2026. That is 90 days before publication. Filed 22 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold Chevron (CVX), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 14 Oct 2026. That is 15 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold Chevron (CVX) (jointly held), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 23 Sep 2026. That is 36 days before publication. Filed 13 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar bought Chevron (CVX), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 2 Sep 2026. That is 57 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael T. McCaul sold Conocophillips (COP) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 26 Aug 2026. That is 64 days before publication. Filed 14 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael T. McCaul sold Conocophillips (COP) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 24 Aug 2026. That is 66 days before publication. Filed 14 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Conocophillips (COP), worth $1,000,001 - $5,000,000 on 21 Aug 2026. That is 69 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
How busy Strait of Hormuz has been lately
Geopolitics Alpha has 173 stories about Strait of Hormuz from the past 7 days and 461 stories from the past 30. That is faster than its usual pace over the past month. “[Analysis] Basra to Ceyhan: Iraq's 2.5 Million Barrel Escape Route” is tagged to Strait of Hormuz.
How solid the energy case looks
12 out of 100
“[Analysis] Basra to Ceyhan: Iraq's 2.5 Million Barrel Escape Route” scores 12 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources.