Analysis-Bond investors are thinking less about the Fed and more about AI, deficits
Published . Updated .
Covered by 3 outlets: WHTC, KFGO, WTVB.
By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss NEW YORK, Oct 27 (Reuters) - Wall Street considers it settled that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady this week. Whether that spells good news for Treasuries is more complicated. After a bruising selloff tha...
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF-1.8% 30d
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story.
- IEF iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF-0.9% 30d
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story.
- QQQ Invesco QQQ+0.4% 17d
Invesco QQQ: it holds the big tech and AI names. Linked by “ai” (AI and big tech) in this story.
- JPM JPMorgan Chase-5.5% 30d
JPMorgan Chase (national commercial banks): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story.
- BAC Bank of America-15.0% 30d
Bank of America (national commercial banks): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story.
- DHI D.R. Horton+5.1% 30d
D.R. Horton (operative builders): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story.
- SCHW The Charles Schwab
The Charles Schwab (security brokers, dealers and flotation companies): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story.
- MSFT Microsoft+7.1% 30d
Microsoft (prepackaged software): big tech's AI spending and demand drive its shares. Linked by “ai” (AI and big tech) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TLT | -1.92% | +0.06% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| IEF | -0.97% | +0.09% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| QQQ | +0.72% | -1.06% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| JPM | +0.37% | +0.74% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| BAC | +0.22% | +1.07% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| DHI | -4.42% | +0.78% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| SCHWNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| MSFTNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
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Analysis-Bond investors are thinking less about the Fed and more about AI, deficits WHTC
Source: WHTC
How far Ishares Tr (TLT) has moved since 27 Oct 2026
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bank Of America (BAC) | three days earlier | +1.07% | final price |
| Bank Of America (BAC) | five days earlier | +0.22% | final price |
| Horton D R (DHI) | three days earlier | +0.78% | final price |
| Horton D R (DHI) | five days earlier | -4.42% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (IEF) | three days earlier | +0.09% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (IEF) | five days earlier | -0.97% | final price |
| Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) | three days earlier | +0.74% | final price |
| Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) | five days earlier | +0.37% | final price |
| Invesco Qqq Trust, Series 1 (QQQ) | three days earlier | -1.06% | final price |
| Invesco Qqq Trust, Series 1 (QQQ) | five days earlier | +0.72% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (TLT) | three days earlier | +0.06% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (TLT) | five days earlier | -1.92% | final price |
Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story
- Sen. John Boozman bought Ishares Tr (IEF) (jointly held), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 9 Sep 2026. That is 48 days before publication. Filed 21 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse sold Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) (held by a spouse), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 4 Sep 2026. That is 53 days before publication. Filed 1 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse sold Jpmorgan Chase (JPM), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 4 Sep 2026. That is 53 days before publication. Filed 1 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) (held by a spouse), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 27 Aug 2026. That is 61 days before publication. Filed 4 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna sold Bank Of America (BAC) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 9 Sep 2026. That is 48 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Laurel Lee sold Bank Of America (BAC) (held by a spouse), worth $50,001 - $100,000 on 24 Aug 2026. That is 64 days before publication. Filed 16 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Horton D R (DHI), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 17 Aug 2026. That is 71 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Lisa McClain bought Microsoft (MSFT) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 30 Sep 2026. That is 27 days before publication. Filed 12 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael Rulli sold Microsoft (MSFT), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 28 Sep 2026. That is 29 days before publication. Filed 2 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar sold Microsoft (MSFT), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 24 Sep 2026. That is 33 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
Who gains and who loses around Ishares Tr (TLT)
Companies mentioned with this story
- TLT Ishares Tr
In “Analysis-Bond investors are thinking less about the Fed and more about AI, deficits,” Ishares Tr (TLT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story
- IEF Ishares Tr
Ishares Tr (IEF) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 27 Oct 2026 story “Analysis-Bond investors are thinking less about the Fed and more about AI, deficits.” Reason on file: iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story
- QQQ Invesco Qqq Trust, Series 1
Invesco Qqq Trust, Series 1 (QQQ) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 27 Oct 2026 story “Analysis-Bond investors are thinking less about the Fed and more about AI, deficits.” Reason on file: Invesco QQQ: it holds the big tech and AI names. Linked by “ai” (AI and big tech) in this story
- JPM Jpmorgan Chase
For “Analysis-Bond investors are thinking less about the Fed and more about AI, deficits,” Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: JPMorgan Chase (national commercial banks): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story
- BAC Bank Of America
In “Analysis-Bond investors are thinking less about the Fed and more about AI, deficits,” Bank Of America (BAC) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Bank of America (national commercial banks): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story
- DHI Horton D R
Horton D R (DHI) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 27 Oct 2026 story “Analysis-Bond investors are thinking less about the Fed and more about AI, deficits.” Reason on file: D.R. Horton (operative builders): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story
- SCHW Schwab Charles
For “Analysis-Bond investors are thinking less about the Fed and more about AI, deficits,” Schwab Charles (SCHW) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: The Charles Schwab (security brokers, dealers and flotation companies): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story
- MSFT Microsoft
Microsoft (MSFT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 27 Oct 2026 story “Analysis-Bond investors are thinking less about the Fed and more about AI, deficits.” Reason on file: Microsoft (prepackaged software): big tech's AI spending and demand drive its shares. Linked by “ai” (AI and big tech) in this story
Ishares Tr (TLT)
On 27 Oct 2026, “Analysis-Bond investors are thinking less about the Fed and more about AI, deficits” is the story that connects Ishares Tr (TLT) to this story.
What ties Ishares Tr (TLT) to the headline is this: iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story
Ishares Tr (IEF) is here too. Its reason reads: iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story
The price range for Ishares Tr (TLT), and the dates in the story
IEF traded between 88.64 and 91.23 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 90.08. QQQ traded between 701.18 and 762.84 across 17 sessions. The latest close on file is 712.11. TLT traded between 76.44 and 81.94 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 79.46.
What the saved facts support for Ishares Tr (TLT)
62 out of 100
“Analysis-Bond investors are thinking less about the Fed and more about AI, deficits” scores 62 out of 100. The score uses 3 sources, and 8 linked companies.