ASX 200 winners and losers from the property downturn as interest rates soar
Published . Updated .
We unpack how the housing downturn could ripple through the ASX – from banks and retailers to property portals and miners – and which sectors Morgan Stanley expects could be the biggest winners and losers.
Directly affected
- MS Morgan Stanley-11.0% 30d
Named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF-1.8% 30d
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “interest rates” (US interest rates) in this story.
- IEF iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF-0.9% 30d
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “interest rates” (US interest rates) in this story.
- XRT SPDR S&P Retail ETF
SPDR S&P Retail ETF: it holds retailers. Linked by “retailer” (retail and consumer goods) in this story.
- PICK iShares MSCI Global Metals & Mining Producers ETF-9.5% 30d
iShares MSCI Global Metals & Mining Producers ETF: it holds metals and mining companies. Linked by “miners” (metals & mining) in this story.
- JPM JPMorgan Chase-5.5% 30d
JPMorgan Chase (national commercial banks): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “interest rates” (US interest rates) in this story.
- WMT Walmart+11.3% 30d
Walmart (variety stores): retailers move with shopper spending and import costs. Linked by “retailer” (retail and consumer goods) in this story.
- BAC Bank of America-15.0% 30d
Bank of America (national commercial banks): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “interest rates” (US interest rates) in this story.
- AMZN Amazon.com+0.2% 30d
Amazon.com (catalog and mail-order houses): retailers move with shopper spending and import costs. Linked by “retailer” (retail and consumer goods) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| TLT | -1.92% | +0.06% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| IEF | -0.97% | +0.09% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| XRTNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| PICKNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| JPM | +0.37% | +0.74% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| WMTNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| BAC | +0.22% | +1.07% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| AMZNNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
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ASX 200 winners and losers from the property downturn as interest rates soar Market Index
Source: Market Index
The price since 27 Oct 2026: Ishares Tr (TLT) versus the S&P 500
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bank Of America (BAC) | three days earlier | +1.07% | final price |
| Bank Of America (BAC) | five days earlier | +0.22% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (IEF) | three days earlier | +0.09% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (IEF) | five days earlier | -0.97% | final price |
| Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) | three days earlier | +0.74% | final price |
| Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) | five days earlier | +0.37% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (TLT) | three days earlier | +0.06% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (TLT) | five days earlier | -1.92% | final price |
Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, sold Morgan Stanley (MS), worth $50,001 - $100,000 on 31 Jul 2026. That is 88 days before publication. Filed 22 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Sen. John Boozman bought Ishares Tr (IEF) (jointly held), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 9 Sep 2026. That is 48 days before publication. Filed 21 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse sold Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) (held by a spouse), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 4 Sep 2026. That is 53 days before publication. Filed 1 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse sold Jpmorgan Chase (JPM), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 4 Sep 2026. That is 53 days before publication. Filed 1 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) (held by a spouse), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 27 Aug 2026. That is 61 days before publication. Filed 4 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Jonathan Jackson sold Walmart (WMT) (jointly held), worth $50,001 - $100,000 on 28 Sep 2026. That is 29 days before publication. Filed 19 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Walmart (WMT) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 25 Sep 2026. That is 32 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna sold Walmart (WMT) (held by a dependent child), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 11 Sep 2026. That is 46 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna sold Bank Of America (BAC) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 9 Sep 2026. That is 48 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Laurel Lee sold Bank Of America (BAC) (held by a spouse), worth $50,001 - $100,000 on 24 Aug 2026. That is 64 days before publication. Filed 16 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael T. McCaul sold Amazon Com (AMZN) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 28 Aug 2026. That is 60 days before publication. Filed 14 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael T. McCaul sold Amazon Com (AMZN) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 27 Aug 2026. That is 61 days before publication. Filed 14 Oct 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
Who gains and who loses around Ishares Tr (TLT)
Companies tied to this story
- TLT Ishares Tr
Ishares Tr (TLT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 27 Oct 2026 story “ASX 200 winners and losers from the property downturn as interest rates soar.” Reason on file: iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “interest rates” (US interest rates) in this story
- IEF Ishares Tr
For “ASX 200 winners and losers from the property downturn as interest rates soar,” Ishares Tr (IEF) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “interest rates” (US interest rates) in this story
- JPM Jpmorgan Chase
Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 27 Oct 2026 story “ASX 200 winners and losers from the property downturn as interest rates soar.” Reason on file: JPMorgan Chase (national commercial banks): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “interest rates” (US interest rates) in this story
- BAC Bank Of America
In “ASX 200 winners and losers from the property downturn as interest rates soar,” Bank Of America (BAC) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Bank of America (national commercial banks): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “interest rates” (US interest rates) in this story
- DHI Horton D R
In “ASX 200 winners and losers from the property downturn as interest rates soar,” Horton D R (DHI) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: D.R. Horton (operative builders): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “interest rates” (US interest rates) in this story
- SCHW Schwab Charles
In “ASX 200 winners and losers from the property downturn as interest rates soar,” Schwab Charles (SCHW) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: The Charles Schwab (security brokers, dealers and flotation companies): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “interest rates” (US interest rates) in this story
Ishares Tr (TLT)
“ASX 200 winners and losers from the property downturn as interest rates soar” (27 Oct 2026) reaches Ishares Tr (TLT) through this story.
For Ishares Tr (TLT), the reason on file says iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “interest rates” (US interest rates) in this story
Ishares Tr (IEF) is here too. Its reason reads: iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “interest rates” (US interest rates) in this story
The price range for Ishares Tr (TLT), and the dates in the story
IEF traded between 88.64 and 91.23 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 90.08. JPM traded between 325.12 and 344.37 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 334.12. TLT traded between 76.44 and 81.94 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 79.46.
What the saved facts support for Ishares Tr (TLT)
46 out of 100
“ASX 200 winners and losers from the property downturn as interest rates soar” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 6 linked companies.