Bitcoin price swings spike more around U.S. jobs and inflation reports than Fed rate decisions
Published . Updated .
A study from January 2025 to September 2026 found Bitcoin's short-term price moves were larger around U.S. employment and core inflation data releases than Federal Reserve rate decisions. Employment reports triggered median price changes about twice the normal size within 30
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- IBIT iShares Bitcoin Trust-11.5% 30d
iShares Bitcoin Trust: it follows bitcoin. Linked by “bitcoin” (crypto) in this story.
- TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF-1.8% 30d
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story.
- TIP iShares TIPS Bond ETF-0.5% 30d
iShares TIPS Bond ETF: it is a common hedge when prices rise. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story.
- COIN Coinbase Global-28.7% 30d
Coinbase Global (finance services): crypto firms' revenue moves with crypto prices and rules. Linked by “bitcoin” (crypto) in this story.
- MSTR Strategy-22.5% 30d
Strategy (finance services): crypto firms' revenue moves with crypto prices and rules. Linked by “bitcoin” (crypto) in this story.
- MARA MARA Holdings-9.9% 8d
MARA Holdings (finance services): crypto firms' revenue moves with crypto prices and rules. Linked by “bitcoin” (crypto) in this story.
- RIOT Riot Platforms-47.1% 30d
Riot Platforms (finance services): crypto firms' revenue moves with crypto prices and rules. Linked by “bitcoin” (crypto) in this story.
- JPM JPMorgan Chase-4.3% 30d
JPMorgan Chase (national commercial banks): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBIT | +4.24% | +6.39% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| TLT | -0.20% | -1.03% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| TIPNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| COIN | +11.38% | +13.37% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| MSTR | +7.15% | +11.26% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| MARA | +1.18% | +8.88% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| RIOT | -1.41% | +13.21% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| JPMNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
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Bitcoin price swings spike more around U.S. jobs and inflation reports than Fed rate decisions Pluang
Source: Pluang
The price since 1 Nov 2026: Strategy (MSTR) versus the S&P 500
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coinbase Global (COIN) | three days earlier | +13.37% | final price |
| Coinbase Global (COIN) | five days earlier | +11.38% | final price |
| iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) | three days earlier | +6.39% | final price |
| iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) | five days earlier | +4.24% | final price |
| MARA Holdings (MARA) | three days earlier | +8.88% | final price |
| MARA Holdings (MARA) | five days earlier | +1.18% | final price |
| Strategy (MSTR) | three days earlier | +11.26% | final price |
| Strategy (MSTR) | five days earlier | +7.15% | final price |
| Riot Platforms (RIOT) | three days earlier | +13.21% | final price |
| Riot Platforms (RIOT) | five days earlier | -1.41% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (TLT) | three days earlier | -1.03% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (TLT) | five days earlier | -0.20% | final price |
Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Coinbase Global (COIN) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 4 Sep 2026. That is 58 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Gilbert Cisneros sold Coinbase Global (COIN), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 18 Aug 2026. That is 75 days before publication. Filed 10 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, sold Coinbase Global (COIN), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 10 Aug 2026. That is 83 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Strategy (MSTR), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 10 Aug 2026. That is 83 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse sold Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) (held by a spouse), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 4 Sep 2026. That is 58 days before publication. Filed 1 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse sold Jpmorgan Chase (JPM), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 4 Sep 2026. That is 58 days before publication. Filed 1 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) (held by a spouse), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 27 Aug 2026. That is 66 days before publication. Filed 4 Sep 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
Who gains and who loses around Strategy (MSTR)
Companies tied to this story
- MSTR Strategy
For “Bitcoin price swings spike more around U.S. jobs and inflation reports than Fed rate decisions,” Strategy (MSTR) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Strategy (finance services): crypto firms' revenue moves with crypto prices and rules. Linked by “bitcoin” (crypto) in this story
- MARA MARA Holdings
For “Bitcoin price swings spike more around U.S. jobs and inflation reports than Fed rate decisions,” MARA Holdings (MARA) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: MARA Holdings (finance services): crypto firms' revenue moves with crypto prices and rules. Linked by “bitcoin” (crypto) in this story
- RIOT Riot Platforms
For “Bitcoin price swings spike more around U.S. jobs and inflation reports than Fed rate decisions,” Riot Platforms (RIOT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Riot Platforms (finance services): crypto firms' revenue moves with crypto prices and rules. Linked by “bitcoin” (crypto) in this story
- JPM Jpmorgan Chase
For “Bitcoin price swings spike more around U.S. jobs and inflation reports than Fed rate decisions,” Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: JPMorgan Chase (national commercial banks): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story
- IBIT iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF
For “Bitcoin price swings spike more around U.S. jobs and inflation reports than Fed rate decisions,” iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: iShares Bitcoin Trust: it follows bitcoin. Linked by “bitcoin” (crypto) in this story
- TLT Ishares Tr
For “Bitcoin price swings spike more around U.S. jobs and inflation reports than Fed rate decisions,” Ishares Tr (TLT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story
- TIP Ishares Tr
For “Bitcoin price swings spike more around U.S. jobs and inflation reports than Fed rate decisions,” Ishares Tr (TIP) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: iShares TIPS Bond ETF: it is a common hedge when prices rise. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story
- COIN Coinbase Global
For “Bitcoin price swings spike more around U.S. jobs and inflation reports than Fed rate decisions,” Coinbase Global (COIN) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Coinbase Global (finance services): crypto firms' revenue moves with crypto prices and rules. Linked by “bitcoin” (crypto) in this story
Strategy (MSTR)
“Bitcoin price swings spike more around U.S. jobs and inflation reports than Fed rate decisions” (1 Nov 2026) reaches Strategy (MSTR) through this story.
The link for Strategy (MSTR) is this: Strategy (finance services): crypto firms' revenue moves with crypto prices and rules. Linked by “bitcoin” (crypto) in this story
A second company, MARA Holdings (MARA), is listed for a different reason: MARA Holdings (finance services): crypto firms' revenue moves with crypto prices and rules. Linked by “bitcoin” (crypto) in this story
Price levels for Strategy (MSTR)
MARA traded between 10.16 and 12.23 across 5 sessions. The latest close on file is 10.37. MSTR traded between 124.29 and 168.72 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 130.53. RIOT traded between 11.79 and 19.88 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 12.79.
How strong the case is around Strategy (MSTR)
46 out of 100
“Bitcoin price swings spike more around U.S. jobs and inflation reports than Fed rate decisions” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 8 linked companies.