Bitcoin’s next Fed test comes with a hidden problem in America’s inflation data
Published . Updated .
This report is about crypto and US interest rates.
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- IBIT iShares Bitcoin Trust+2.7% 30d
iShares Bitcoin Trust: it follows bitcoin. Linked by “bitcoin” (crypto) in this story.
- TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF-1.8% 30d
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story.
- TIP iShares TIPS Bond ETF-0.5% 30d
iShares TIPS Bond ETF: it is a common hedge when prices rise. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story.
- COIN Coinbase Global-14.1% 30d
Coinbase Global (finance services): crypto firms' revenue moves with crypto prices and rules. Linked by “bitcoin” (crypto) in this story.
- MSTR Strategy+6.7% 30d
Strategy (finance services): crypto firms' revenue moves with crypto prices and rules. Linked by “bitcoin” (crypto) in this story.
- MARA MARA Holdings-9.9% 8d
MARA Holdings (finance services): crypto firms' revenue moves with crypto prices and rules. Linked by “bitcoin” (crypto) in this story.
- RIOT Riot Platforms-40.2% 30d
Riot Platforms (finance services): crypto firms' revenue moves with crypto prices and rules. Linked by “bitcoin” (crypto) in this story.
- JPM JPMorgan Chase-5.3% 30d
JPMorgan Chase (national commercial banks): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBIT | +0.74% | +4.07% | base | -1.64% | after close | after close | after close |
| TLT | -2.31% | -1.35% | base | +0.66% | after close | after close | after close |
| TIPNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| COIN | +2.30% | +7.65% | base | -2.91% | after close | after close | after close |
| MSTR | -6.98% | +5.01% | base | -3.41% | after close | after close | after close |
| MARA | +5.13% | +10.83% | base | -2.21% | after close | after close | after close |
| RIOT | +11.58% | +12.02% | base | -2.40% | after close | after close | after close |
| JPMNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
Market Call
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Bitcoin’s next Fed test comes with a hidden problem in America’s inflation data CryptoSlate
Source: CryptoSlate
How far iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) has moved since 26 Oct 2026
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coinbase Global (COIN) | that day | -2.91% | still updating |
| Coinbase Global (COIN) | three days earlier | +7.65% | final price |
| Coinbase Global (COIN) | five days earlier | +2.30% | final price |
| iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) | that day | -1.64% | still updating |
| iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) | three days earlier | +4.07% | final price |
| iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) | five days earlier | +0.74% | final price |
| MARA Holdings (MARA) | that day | -2.21% | still updating |
| MARA Holdings (MARA) | three days earlier | +10.83% | final price |
| MARA Holdings (MARA) | five days earlier | +5.13% | final price |
| Strategy (MSTR) | that day | -3.41% | still updating |
| Strategy (MSTR) | three days earlier | +5.01% | final price |
| Strategy (MSTR) | five days earlier | -6.98% | final price |
| Riot Platforms (RIOT) | that day | -2.40% | still updating |
| Riot Platforms (RIOT) | three days earlier | +12.02% | final price |
| Riot Platforms (RIOT) | five days earlier | +11.58% | final price |
| TLT | that day | +0.66% | still updating |
| TLT | three days earlier | -1.35% | final price |
| TLT | five days earlier | -2.31% | final price |
Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Coinbase Global (COIN) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 4 Sep 2026. That is 52 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Gilbert Cisneros sold Coinbase Global (COIN), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 18 Aug 2026. That is 69 days before publication. Filed 10 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, sold Coinbase Global (COIN), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 10 Aug 2026. That is 77 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Strategy (MSTR), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 10 Aug 2026. That is 77 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, sold MARA Holdings (MARA), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 29 Jul 2026. That is 89 days before publication. Filed 22 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse sold Jpmorgan Chase (JPM), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 4 Sep 2026. That is 52 days before publication. Filed 1 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse sold Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) (held by a spouse), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 4 Sep 2026. That is 52 days before publication. Filed 1 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) (held by a spouse), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 27 Aug 2026. That is 60 days before publication. Filed 4 Sep 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
Who gains and who loses around iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT)
Companies carried with this story
- IBIT iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF
iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 26 Oct 2026 story “Bitcoin’s next Fed test comes with a hidden problem in America’s inflation data.” Reason on file: This price moves with the crypto market. Linked by “bitcoin” in this story
- COIN Coinbase Global
For “Bitcoin’s next Fed test comes with a hidden problem in America’s inflation data,” Coinbase Global (COIN) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: The crypto exchange moves with trading volumes. Linked by “bitcoin” in this story
- MSTR Strategy
Strategy (MSTR) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 26 Oct 2026 story “Bitcoin’s next Fed test comes with a hidden problem in America’s inflation data.” Reason on file: This company's value is tied to its bitcoin holdings. Linked by “bitcoin” in this story
- MARA MARA Holdings
For “Bitcoin’s next Fed test comes with a hidden problem in America’s inflation data,” MARA Holdings (MARA) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Bitcoin miners move with the bitcoin price. Linked by “bitcoin” in this story
- RIOT Riot Platforms
Riot Platforms (RIOT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 26 Oct 2026 story “Bitcoin’s next Fed test comes with a hidden problem in America’s inflation data.” Reason on file: Bitcoin miners move with the bitcoin price. Linked by “bitcoin” in this story
iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT)
iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) is the company in “Bitcoin’s next Fed test comes with a hidden problem in America’s inflation data,” the 26 Oct 2026 this story story.
The link for iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) is this: This price moves with the crypto market. Linked by “bitcoin” in this story
A second company, Coinbase Global (COIN), is listed for a different reason: The crypto exchange moves with trading volumes. Linked by “bitcoin” in this story
Dates in the story, and the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) price range
COIN traded between 163.34 and 200.28 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 164.44. IBIT traded between 45.12 and 49.39 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 45.95. MSTR traded between 133.65 and 170.09 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 146.05.
What the saved facts support for iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT)
40 out of 100Price not final
“Bitcoin’s next Fed test comes with a hidden problem in America’s inflation data” scores 40 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 5 linked companies. The price is not final yet.