Geopolitics Alpha

Brazilian Markets Crash After Lula’s Surprise Election Win Stuns Investors

Published . Updated .

GEOPOLITICS ALPHABrazilian Markets Crash AfterLula’s Surprise Election Win StunsInvestorsGEOPOLITICS ALPHA

This report is about Brazil.

Directly affected

  • No company is named in this report.

Indirectly affected

  • EWZ iShares MSCI Brazil ETF+12.9% 30d

    iShares MSCI Brazil ETF holds stocks listed in Brazil, which this story is about (“brazilian”).

  • PBR Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras

    Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (crude petroleum and natural gas) is one of the largest Brazil-based companies traded in the US, so news about Brazil (“brazilian”) reaches its shares.

  • ITUB Itaú Unibanco Holding S.A+23.6% 8d

    Itaú Unibanco Holding S.A (state commercial banks) is one of the largest Brazil-based companies traded in the US, so news about Brazil (“brazilian”) reaches its shares.

  • NU Nu Holdings

    Nu Holdings (finance services) is one of the largest Brazil-based companies traded in the US, so news about Brazil (“brazilian”) reaches its shares.

  • VALE Vale S.A-3.1% 12d

    Vale S.A (metal mining) is one of the largest Brazil-based companies traded in the US, so news about Brazil (“brazilian”) reaches its shares.

Price reaction, T-5 to T+3

TickerT-5T-3T-1T0T+1T+2T+3
EWZ-1.50%-0.19%base-19.84%after closeafter closeafter close
PBR-2.33%-1.87%base-14.07%after closeafter closeafter close
ITUB-2.38%+0.36%base-20.53%after closeafter closeafter close
NU-4.32%-0.69%base-16.93%after closeafter closeafter close
VALE+5.81%+2.42%base-3.35%after closeafter closeafter close

Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.

Market Call

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Brazilian Markets Crash After Lula’s Surprise Election Win Stuns Investors WSJ

Source: The Wall Street Journal

How far Ishares Msci Brazil Etf (EWZ) has moved since 26 Oct 2026

CompanyWhenMoveStatus
Ishares Msci Brazil Etf (EWZ)that day-19.84%final price
Ishares Msci Brazil Etf (EWZ)three days earlier-0.19%final price
Ishares Msci Brazil Etf (EWZ)five days earlier-1.50%final price
Itau Unibanco Holding S.A (ITUB)that day-20.53%final price
Itau Unibanco Holding S.A (ITUB)three days earlier+0.36%final price
Itau Unibanco Holding S.A (ITUB)five days earlier-2.38%final price
Nu Holdings (NU)that day-16.93%final price
Nu Holdings (NU)three days earlier-0.69%final price
Nu Holdings (NU)five days earlier-4.32%final price
Petrobras - Petroleo Brasileiro (PBR)that day-14.07%final price
Petrobras - Petroleo Brasileiro (PBR)three days earlier-1.87%final price
Petrobras - Petroleo Brasileiro (PBR)five days earlier-2.33%final price
Vale S.A (VALE)that day-3.35%final price
Vale S.A (VALE)three days earlier+2.42%final price
Vale S.A (VALE)five days earlier+5.81%final price

Who gains and who loses around Ishares Msci Brazil Etf (EWZ)

Companies carried with this story

  • EWZ Ishares Msci Brazil Etf

    For “Brazilian Markets Crash After Lula’s Surprise Election Win Stuns Investors,” Ishares Msci Brazil Etf (EWZ) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: iShares MSCI Brazil ETF holds stocks listed in Brazil, which this story is about (“brazilian”)

  • PBR Petrobras - Petroleo Brasileiro

    For “Brazilian Markets Crash After Lula’s Surprise Election Win Stuns Investors,” Petrobras - Petroleo Brasileiro (PBR) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (crude petroleum and natural gas) is one of the largest Brazil-based companies traded in the US, so news about Brazil (“brazilian”) reaches its shares

  • ITUB Itau Unibanco Holding S.A

    Itau Unibanco Holding S.A (ITUB) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 26 Oct 2026 story “Brazilian Markets Crash After Lula’s Surprise Election Win Stuns Investors.” Reason on file: Itaú Unibanco Holding S.A (state commercial banks) is one of the largest Brazil-based companies traded in the US, so news about Brazil (“brazilian”) reaches its shares

  • NU Nu Holdings

    Nu Holdings (NU) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 26 Oct 2026 story “Brazilian Markets Crash After Lula’s Surprise Election Win Stuns Investors.” Reason on file: Nu Holdings (finance services) is one of the largest Brazil-based companies traded in the US, so news about Brazil (“brazilian”) reaches its shares

  • VALE Vale S.A

    For “Brazilian Markets Crash After Lula’s Surprise Election Win Stuns Investors,” Vale S.A (VALE) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Vale S.A (metal mining) is one of the largest Brazil-based companies traded in the US, so news about Brazil (“brazilian”) reaches its shares

Ishares Msci Brazil Etf (EWZ)

The 26 Oct 2026 story “Brazilian Markets Crash After Lula’s Surprise Election Win Stuns Investors” names Ishares Msci Brazil Etf (EWZ) because of this story.

The link for Ishares Msci Brazil Etf (EWZ) is this: iShares MSCI Brazil ETF holds stocks listed in Brazil, which this story is about (“brazilian”)

Petrobras - Petroleo Brasileiro (PBR) is here too. Its reason reads: Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (crude petroleum and natural gas) is one of the largest Brazil-based companies traded in the US, so news about Brazil (“brazilian”) reaches its shares

Dates and price levels for Ishares Msci Brazil Etf (EWZ)

EWZ traded between 35.98 and 43.77 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 42.59. ITUB traded between 8.06 and 10.20 across 8 sessions. The latest close on file is 10.18. PBR traded between 20.98 and 21.98 across 2 sessions. The latest close on file is 21.75.

How strong the case is around Ishares Msci Brazil Etf (EWZ)

40 out of 100

“Brazilian Markets Crash After Lula’s Surprise Election Win Stuns Investors” scores 40 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 5 linked companies.