Brent Falls to $100 as Traders Bet on a U.S.-Iran Deal
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Brent fell 2.9% to $100.60 as traders priced in a U.S.-Iran settlement and brushed off new threats around the Strait of Hormuz.
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- USO United States Oil Fund
United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “brent” (oil) in this story.
- XLE Energy Select Sector SPDR
Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “brent” (oil) in this story.
- BWET Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF
Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF: it tracks tanker freight rates. Linked by “brent” (tanker shipping) in this story.
- XOM ExxonMobil Holdings
ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “brent” (oil) in this story.
- CVX Chevron
Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “brent” (oil) in this story.
- OXY Occidental Petroleum
Occidental Petroleum (crude petroleum and natural gas): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “brent” (oil) in this story.
- COP ConocoPhillips
ConocoPhillips (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “brent” (oil) in this story.
- FRO Frontline
Frontline (deep sea foreign transportation of freight): tanker owners earn more when more crude has to move by sea. Linked by “brent” (tanker shipping) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USO | +5.38% | +6.75% | base | -2.52% | after close | after close | after close |
| XLE | +2.64% | +4.95% | base | -3.73% | after close | after close | after close |
| BWET | +7.18% | +11.56% | base | -12.01% | after close | after close | after close |
| XOM | +2.57% | +5.49% | base | -2.82% | after close | after close | after close |
| CVX | +1.76% | +4.58% | base | -2.69% | after close | after close | after close |
| OXY | +4.03% | +5.88% | base | -3.82% | after close | after close | after close |
| COP | +3.21% | +6.66% | base | -3.27% | after close | after close | after close |
| FRO | +5.87% | +8.47% | base | -5.72% | after close | after close | after close |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
Brent Falls to $100 as Traders Bet on a U.S.-Iran Deal Crude Oil Prices Today | OilPrice.com
How United States Oil Fund (USO) moved after the last 19 energy shocks
Those 19 earlier stories put United States Oil Fund (USO) at an average move of +1.34% the next day. Largest gain +3.26%, largest drop +0.26%, from 19 prices.
| Company | When | Average | Largest gain | Largest drop | Prices |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | the next day | +1.34% | +3.26% | +0.26% | 19 |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | three days later | -1.11% | +6.12% | -5.11% | 18 |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) | the next day | -0.01% | +3.24% | -1.69% | 19 |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) | three days later | -0.29% | +2.27% | -1.42% | 17 |
| Amplify Commodity Trust (BWET) | the next day | +2.67% | +4.46% | +0.48% | 16 |
| Amplify Commodity Trust (BWET) | three days later | +1.85% | +4.59% | -6.70% | 16 |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | the next day | +0.49% | +3.00% | -1.33% | 19 |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | three days later | +0.68% | +3.38% | -2.51% | 18 |
- Iran Says Oil Tanker Hit Naval Mines in Strait of Hormuz
- Precious metals weaken as Hormuz uncertainty keeps oil elevated ahead of Fed decision - Kitco AM Report
- Iran threatens 'legal action' against South Korean shipping company in Strait of Hormuz
- Oil Tanker Catches Fire After Hitting Naval Mine Near Strait of Hormuz
- Iran army says oil tanker on fire after hitting mines in Hormuz
- Iraq revives shipping line after 50 years as Hormuz crisis bites
United States Oil Fund (USO) since “Brent Falls to $100 as Traders Bet on a U.S.-Iran Deal,” compared with the market
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Amplify Commodity Trust (BWET) | that day | -12.01% | still updating |
| Amplify Commodity Trust (BWET) | three days earlier | +11.56% | final price |
| Amplify Commodity Trust (BWET) | five days earlier | +7.18% | final price |
| Conocophillips (COP) | that day | -3.27% | still updating |
| Conocophillips (COP) | three days earlier | +6.66% | final price |
| Conocophillips (COP) | five days earlier | +3.21% | final price |
| Chevron (CVX) | that day | -2.69% | still updating |
| Chevron (CVX) | three days earlier | +4.58% | final price |
| Chevron (CVX) | five days earlier | +1.76% | final price |
| Frontline (FRO) | that day | -5.72% | still updating |
| Frontline (FRO) | three days earlier | +8.47% | final price |
| Frontline (FRO) | five days earlier | +5.87% | final price |
| OXY | that day | -3.82% | still updating |
| OXY | three days earlier | +5.88% | final price |
| OXY | five days earlier | +4.03% | final price |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | that day | -2.52% | still updating |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | three days earlier | +6.75% | final price |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | five days earlier | +5.38% | final price |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) | that day | -3.73% | still updating |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) | three days earlier | +4.95% | final price |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) | five days earlier | +2.64% | final price |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | that day | -2.82% | still updating |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | three days earlier | +5.49% | final price |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | five days earlier | +2.57% | final price |
Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 14 Oct 2026. That is 21 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) (jointly held), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 31 Aug 2026. That is 65 days before publication. Filed 25 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold Chevron (CVX), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 14 Oct 2026. That is 21 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold Chevron (CVX) (jointly held), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 23 Sep 2026. That is 42 days before publication. Filed 13 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar bought Chevron (CVX), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 2 Sep 2026. That is 63 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Occidental Petroleum (OXY), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 21 Aug 2026. That is 75 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael T. McCaul sold Conocophillips (COP) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 26 Aug 2026. That is 70 days before publication. Filed 14 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael T. McCaul sold Conocophillips (COP) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 24 Aug 2026. That is 72 days before publication. Filed 14 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Conocophillips (COP), worth $1,000,001 - $5,000,000 on 21 Aug 2026. That is 75 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
The Strait of Hormuz count beside this story
Geopolitics Alpha has 194 stories about Strait of Hormuz from the past 7 days and 509 stories from the past 30. That is faster than its usual pace over the past month. “Brent Falls to $100 as Traders Bet on a U.S.-Iran Deal” is tagged to Strait of Hormuz.
United States Oil Fund (USO) on one side of this energy story
Companies carried with this story
- USO United States Oil Fund
In “Brent Falls to $100 as Traders Bet on a U.S.-Iran Deal,” United States Oil Fund (USO) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “brent” (oil) in this story
- XLE Select Sector Spdr Tr
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 4 Nov 2026 story “Brent Falls to $100 as Traders Bet on a U.S.-Iran Deal.” Reason on file: Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “brent” (oil) in this story
- BWET Amplify Commodity Trust
In “Brent Falls to $100 as Traders Bet on a U.S.-Iran Deal,” Amplify Commodity Trust (BWET) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF: it tracks tanker freight rates. Linked by “brent” (tanker shipping) in this story
- XOM ExxonMobil Holdings
For “Brent Falls to $100 as Traders Bet on a U.S.-Iran Deal,” ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “brent” (oil) in this story
- CVX Chevron
Chevron (CVX) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 4 Nov 2026 story “Brent Falls to $100 as Traders Bet on a U.S.-Iran Deal.” Reason on file: Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “brent” (oil) in this story
- COP Conocophillips
In “Brent Falls to $100 as Traders Bet on a U.S.-Iran Deal,” Conocophillips (COP) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: ConocoPhillips (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “brent” (oil) in this story
- SHEL Shell
In “Brent Falls to $100 as Traders Bet on a U.S.-Iran Deal,” Shell (SHEL) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Shell (crude petroleum and natural gas): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “brent” (oil) in this story
- FRO Frontline
Frontline (FRO) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 4 Nov 2026 story “Brent Falls to $100 as Traders Bet on a U.S.-Iran Deal.” Reason on file: Frontline (deep sea foreign transportation of freight): tanker owners earn more when more crude has to move by sea. Linked by “brent” (tanker shipping) in this story
United States Oil Fund (USO) and the energy link
United States Oil Fund (USO) is the company in “Brent Falls to $100 as Traders Bet on a U.S.-Iran Deal,” the 4 Nov 2026 Strait of Hormuz story.
What ties United States Oil Fund (USO) to the headline is this: United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “brent” (oil) in this story
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) is here too. Its reason reads: Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “brent” (oil) in this story
What this energy story puts on the calendar
BWET traded between 788.51 and 1047.07 across 17 sessions. The latest close on file is 907.20. USO traded between 142.51 and 171.80 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 158.17. XLE traded between 63.05 and 70.15 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 66.70.
How solid the energy case looks
46 out of 100Price not final
“Brent Falls to $100 as Traders Bet on a U.S.-Iran Deal” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 8 linked companies. The price is not final yet.