Can Exxon’s $4.5 Billion Refining Windfall Defy Dropping Crude Prices on Oct. 30?
Published . Updated .
Exxon's refining business delivered a historic quarter, but crude prices moved sharply against it heading into the Oct. 30 earnings call. Find out which force came out on top and what it means for the stock's remarkable 13% run.
Directly affected
- XOM ExxonMobil Holdings+11.0% 11d
Named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- USO United States Oil Fund+8.2% 30d
United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “crude” (oil) in this story.
- XLE Energy Select Sector SPDR+7.4% 30d
Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “crude” (oil) in this story.
- CRAK VanEck Oil Refiners ETF
VanEck Oil Refiners ETF: it holds refiners, whose margins move with fuel prices. Linked by “refining” (refining) in this story.
- CVX Chevron+9.9% 30d
Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “crude” (oil) in this story.
- VLO Valero Energy+9.5% 30d
Valero Energy (petroleum refining): refiners' margins move with crude and fuel prices. Linked by “refining” (refining) in this story.
- MPC Marathon Petroleum+10.2% 7d
Marathon Petroleum (petroleum refining): refiners' margins move with crude and fuel prices. Linked by “refining” (refining) in this story.
- COP ConocoPhillips+11.7% 30d
ConocoPhillips (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “crude” (oil) in this story.
- PSX Phillips 66+12.3% 19d
Phillips 66 (petroleum refining): refiners' margins move with crude and fuel prices. Linked by “refining” (refining) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XOM | -2.72% | -2.80% | base | -0.51% | after close | after close | after close |
| USO | -5.13% | -5.78% | base | -2.94% | after close | after close | after close |
| XLE | -2.19% | -1.69% | base | -0.41% | after close | after close | after close |
| CRAKNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| CVX | -3.75% | -2.77% | base | -0.81% | after close | after close | after close |
| VLO | +3.31% | +4.13% | base | +1.59% | after close | after close | after close |
| MPC | +3.75% | +2.58% | base | +2.35% | after close | after close | after close |
| COP | -3.70% | -3.40% | base | -0.82% | after close | after close | after close |
| PSXNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
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Can Exxon’s $4.5 Billion Refining Windfall Defy Dropping Crude Prices on Oct. 30? 24/7 Wall St.
Source: 24/7 Wall St.
United States Oil Fund (USO) since this story, compared with the market
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| COP | that day | -0.82% | still updating |
| COP | three days earlier | -3.40% | final price |
| COP | five days earlier | -3.70% | final price |
| Chevron (CVX) | that day | -0.81% | still updating |
| Chevron (CVX) | three days earlier | -2.77% | final price |
| Chevron (CVX) | five days earlier | -3.75% | final price |
| MPC | that day | +2.35% | still updating |
| MPC | three days earlier | +2.58% | final price |
| MPC | five days earlier | +3.75% | final price |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | that day | -2.94% | still updating |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | three days earlier | -5.78% | final price |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | five days earlier | -5.13% | final price |
| VLO | that day | +1.59% | still updating |
| VLO | three days earlier | +4.13% | final price |
| VLO | five days earlier | +3.31% | final price |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) | that day | -0.41% | still updating |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) | three days earlier | -1.69% | final price |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) | five days earlier | -2.19% | final price |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | that day | -0.51% | still updating |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | three days earlier | -2.80% | final price |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | five days earlier | -2.72% | final price |
Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) (jointly held), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 31 Aug 2026. That is 56 days before publication. Filed 25 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM), worth $250,001 - $500,000 on 31 Jul 2026. That is 87 days before publication. Filed 22 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold Chevron (CVX) (jointly held), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 23 Sep 2026. That is 33 days before publication. Filed 13 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar bought Chevron (CVX), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 2 Sep 2026. That is 54 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Chevron (CVX), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 26 Aug 2026. That is 61 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. David J. Taylor sold Marathon Petroleum (MPC), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 22 Sep 2026. That is 34 days before publication. Filed 1 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael T. McCaul sold Conocophillips (COP) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 26 Aug 2026. That is 61 days before publication. Filed 14 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael T. McCaul sold Conocophillips (COP) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 24 Aug 2026. That is 63 days before publication. Filed 14 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Conocophillips (COP), worth $1,000,001 - $5,000,000 on 21 Aug 2026. That is 66 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
Who gains and who loses around United States Oil Fund (USO)
The side that tends to collect
- USO United States Oil Fund
United States Oil Fund (USO) tends to benefit, medium confidence in the 26 Oct 2026 story “Can Exxon’s $4.5 Billion Refining Windfall Defy Dropping Crude Prices on Oct. 30?.” Reason on file: This fund moves with oil prices. Linked by “crude + prices” in this story
- XLE Select Sector Spdr Tr
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) tends to benefit, medium confidence in the 26 Oct 2026 story “Can Exxon’s $4.5 Billion Refining Windfall Defy Dropping Crude Prices on Oct. 30?.” Reason on file: A fund of energy companies. Linked by “crude + prices” in this story
- XOM ExxonMobil Holdings
ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) tends to benefit, medium confidence in the 26 Oct 2026 story “Can Exxon’s $4.5 Billion Refining Windfall Defy Dropping Crude Prices on Oct. 30?.” Reason on file: Oil producers earn more when crude prices rise. Linked by “crude + prices” in this story
- CVX Chevron
In “Can Exxon’s $4.5 Billion Refining Windfall Defy Dropping Crude Prices on Oct. 30?,” Chevron (CVX) tends to benefit, medium confidence. Reason on file: Oil producers earn more when crude prices rise. Linked by “crude + prices” in this story
No up or down call on file
- BNO United States Brent Oil Fund
United States Brent Oil Fund (BNO) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 26 Oct 2026 story “Can Exxon’s $4.5 Billion Refining Windfall Defy Dropping Crude Prices on Oct. 30?.” Reason on file: Tracks Brent, the global crude benchmark. Linked by “crude + prices” in this story
How energy news reaches United States Oil Fund (USO)
United States Oil Fund (USO) is the company in “Can Exxon’s $4.5 Billion Refining Windfall Defy Dropping Crude Prices on Oct. 30?,” the 26 Oct 2026 Energy story.
For United States Oil Fund (USO), the reason on file says This fund moves with oil prices. Linked by “crude + prices” in this story
A second company, Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE), is listed for a different reason: A fund of energy companies. Linked by “crude + prices” in this story
Dates and price levels for United States Oil Fund (USO)
BNO traded between 58.70 and 71.28 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 70.98. USO traded between 141.82 and 169.96 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 169.55. XLE traded between 60.95 and 69.72 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 69.32.
The energy score for United States Oil Fund (USO)
40 out of 100Price not final
“Can Exxon’s $4.5 Billion Refining Windfall Defy Dropping Crude Prices on Oct. 30?” scores 40 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 5 linked companies. The price is not final yet.