Chinese AI Projects at Risk from Nvidia Exit and US Export Controls
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Over $3 billion in Chinese AI projects reliant on Nvidia face threats from US export controls and leadership changes at the chipmaker.
Directly affected
- NVDA Nvidia-26.1% 30d
Named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- SMH VanEck Semiconductor ETF-16.2% 30d
VanEck Semiconductor ETF: it holds chipmakers. Linked by “export controls” (semiconductors) in this story.
- SOXX iShares Semiconductor ETF-20.7% 30d
iShares Semiconductor ETF: it holds chipmakers. Linked by “export controls” (semiconductors) in this story.
- QQQ Invesco QQQ-9.8% 30d
Invesco QQQ: it holds the big tech and AI names. Linked by “ai” (AI and big tech) in this story.
- KWEB KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF-5.9% 30d
KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF: it holds Chinese internet companies. Linked by “chinese” (Chinese tech) in this story.
- FXI iShares China Large-Cap ETF-2.2% 30d
iShares China Large-Cap ETF holds stocks listed in China, which this story is about (“chinese”).
- ASML ASML Holding N.V-13.3% 10d
ASML Holding N.V (special industry machinery): chip demand, export rules and supply drive chipmakers' shares. Linked by “export controls” (semiconductors) in this story.
- TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing-10.2% 30d
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (semiconductors and related devices): chip demand, export rules and supply drive chipmakers' shares. Linked by “export controls” (semiconductors) in this story.
- AVGO Broadcom+2.6% 30d
Broadcom (semiconductors and related devices): chip demand, export rules and supply drive chipmakers' shares. Linked by “export controls” (semiconductors) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | +12.42% | +1.63% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| SMH | -7.61% | -3.62% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| SOXX | -11.91% | -5.47% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| QQQ | -4.63% | -1.94% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| KWEB | +8.65% | +5.07% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| FXI | +4.36% | +2.79% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| ASML | -4.85% | +0.72% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| TSM | -7.50% | -2.24% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| AVGO | -19.45% | -8.83% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
Chinese AI Projects at Risk from Nvidia Exit and US Export Controls Global Banking & Finance Review
Source: Global Banking & Finance Review
Vaneck Etf Trust (SMH) since this story, compared with the market
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asml Holding (ASML) | three days earlier | +0.72% | final price |
| Asml Holding (ASML) | five days earlier | -4.85% | final price |
| AVGO | three days earlier | -8.83% | final price |
| AVGO | five days earlier | -19.45% | final price |
| Ishares China Large-Cap Etf (FXI) | three days earlier | +2.79% | final price |
| Ishares China Large-Cap Etf (FXI) | five days earlier | +4.36% | final price |
| Kraneshares Csi China Internet Etf (KWEB) | three days earlier | +5.07% | final price |
| Kraneshares Csi China Internet Etf (KWEB) | five days earlier | +8.65% | final price |
| Nvidia (NVDA) | three days earlier | +1.63% | final price |
| Nvidia (NVDA) | five days earlier | +12.42% | final price |
| Invesco Qqq Trust, Series 1 (QQQ) | three days earlier | -1.94% | final price |
| Invesco Qqq Trust, Series 1 (QQQ) | five days earlier | -4.63% | final price |
| Vaneck Etf Trust (SMH) | three days earlier | -3.62% | final price |
| Vaneck Etf Trust (SMH) | five days earlier | -7.61% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (SOXX) | three days earlier | -5.47% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (SOXX) | five days earlier | -11.91% | final price |
| Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) | three days earlier | -2.24% | final price |
| Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) | five days earlier | -7.50% | final price |
Congressional trades in the stocks in this story
- Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar bought Nvidia (NVDA), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 23 Oct 2026. That is 21 days before publication. Filed 5 Nov 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Gilbert Cisneros sold Nvidia (NVDA), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 20 Oct 2026. That is 24 days before publication. Filed 10 Nov 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna sold Nvidia (NVDA) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 7 Oct 2026. That is 37 days before publication. Filed 5 Nov 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold Asml Holding (ASML) (jointly held), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 23 Oct 2026. That is 21 days before publication. Filed 28 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Cleo Fields bought Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 9 Oct 2026. That is 35 days before publication. Filed 22 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Gilbert Cisneros bought Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 22 Sep 2026. That is 52 days before publication. Filed 12 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael T. McCaul sold Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 25 Aug 2026. That is 80 days before publication. Filed 14 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Broadcom (AVGO) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 13 Oct 2026. That is 31 days before publication. Filed 5 Nov 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna sold Broadcom (AVGO) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 25 Sep 2026. That is 49 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. John J McGuire III sold Broadcom (AVGO) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 24 Sep 2026. That is 50 days before publication. Filed 1 Nov 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
Who gains and who loses around Vaneck Etf Trust (SMH)
Companies tied to this story
- SMH Vaneck Etf Trust
Vaneck Etf Trust (SMH) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 13 Nov 2026 story “Chinese AI Projects at Risk from Nvidia Exit and US Export Controls.” Reason on file: VanEck Semiconductor ETF: it holds chipmakers. Linked by “export controls” (semiconductors) in this story
- SOXX Ishares Tr
In “Chinese AI Projects at Risk from Nvidia Exit and US Export Controls,” Ishares Tr (SOXX) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: iShares Semiconductor ETF: it holds chipmakers. Linked by “export controls” (semiconductors) in this story
- QQQ Invesco Qqq Trust, Series 1
In “Chinese AI Projects at Risk from Nvidia Exit and US Export Controls,” Invesco Qqq Trust, Series 1 (QQQ) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Invesco QQQ: it holds the big tech and AI names. Linked by “ai” (AI and big tech) in this story
- KWEB Kraneshares Csi China Internet Etf
In “Chinese AI Projects at Risk from Nvidia Exit and US Export Controls,” Kraneshares Csi China Internet Etf (KWEB) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF: it holds Chinese internet companies. Linked by “chinese” (Chinese tech) in this story
- FXI Ishares China Large-Cap Etf
In “Chinese AI Projects at Risk from Nvidia Exit and US Export Controls,” Ishares China Large-Cap Etf (FXI) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: iShares China Large-Cap ETF holds stocks listed in China, which this story is about (“chinese”)
- NVDA Nvidia
In “Chinese AI Projects at Risk from Nvidia Exit and US Export Controls,” Nvidia (NVDA) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Nvidia (semiconductors and related devices): chip demand, export rules and supply drive chipmakers' shares. Linked by “export controls” (semiconductors) in this story
- ASML Asml Holding
Asml Holding (ASML) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 13 Nov 2026 story “Chinese AI Projects at Risk from Nvidia Exit and US Export Controls.” Reason on file: ASML Holding N.V (special industry machinery): chip demand, export rules and supply drive chipmakers' shares. Linked by “export controls” (semiconductors) in this story
- TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 13 Nov 2026 story “Chinese AI Projects at Risk from Nvidia Exit and US Export Controls.” Reason on file: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (semiconductors and related devices): chip demand, export rules and supply drive chipmakers' shares. Linked by “export controls” (semiconductors) in this story
Vaneck Etf Trust (SMH)
Vaneck Etf Trust (SMH) is the company in “Chinese AI Projects at Risk from Nvidia Exit and US Export Controls,” the 13 Nov 2026 this story story.
The link for Vaneck Etf Trust (SMH) is this: VanEck Semiconductor ETF: it holds chipmakers. Linked by “export controls” (semiconductors) in this story
A second company, Ishares Tr (SOXX), is listed for a different reason: iShares Semiconductor ETF: it holds chipmakers. Linked by “export controls” (semiconductors) in this story
The price range for Vaneck Etf Trust (SMH), and the dates in the story
QQQ traded between 680.34 and 757.18 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 685.32. SMH traded between 506.51 and 639.33 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 508.07. SOXX traded between 452.10 and 596.35 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 453.73.
A simple score for Vaneck Etf Trust (SMH)
46 out of 100
“Chinese AI Projects at Risk from Nvidia Exit and US Export Controls” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 8 linked companies.