Geopolitics Alpha

Consumer sentiment is lower than at the 9.1% inflation peak — top 10% do half of consumer spending

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Consumer sentiment is lower than at the 9.1% inflation peak — top 10% do half of consumer spending

A Pew survey in early October found 84% of registered voters said the economy was very important to their vote, the least polarizing issue it asked about.

Directly affected

  • No company is named in this report.

Indirectly affected

  • XRT SPDR S&P Retail ETF

    SPDR S&P Retail ETF: it holds retailers. Linked by “consumer” (retail and consumer goods) in this story.

  • XLY Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR+3.0% 30d

    Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR: it holds retailers. Linked by “consumer” (retail and consumer goods) in this story.

  • TIP iShares TIPS Bond ETF-0.5% 30d

    iShares TIPS Bond ETF: it is a common hedge when prices rise. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story.

  • WMT Walmart+13.7% 30d

    Walmart (variety stores): retailers move with shopper spending and import costs. Linked by “consumer” (retail and consumer goods) in this story.

  • AMZN Amazon.com-3.7% 30d

    Amazon.com (catalog and mail-order houses): retailers move with shopper spending and import costs. Linked by “consumer” (retail and consumer goods) in this story.

  • COST Costco Wholesale+11.2% 30d

    Costco Wholesale (variety stores): retailers move with shopper spending and import costs. Linked by “consumer” (retail and consumer goods) in this story.

  • TGT Target-4.3% 30d

    Target (variety stores): retailers move with shopper spending and import costs. Linked by “consumer” (retail and consumer goods) in this story.

  • PG The Procter & Gamble+9.9% 30d

    The Procter & Gamble (soap, detergents, cleang preparations, perfumes, cosmetics): big consumer-goods sellers feel price rises in costs and shopper demand. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story.

Price reaction, T-5 to T+3

TickerT-5T-3T-1T0T+1T+2T+3
XRTNo price data for this ticker———————
XLYNo price data for this ticker———————
TIPNo price data for this ticker———————
WMTNo price data for this ticker———————
AMZNNo price data for this ticker———————
COSTNo price data for this ticker———————
TGTNo price data for this ticker———————
PGNo price data for this ticker———————

Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.

Market Call

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Consumer sentiment is lower than at the 9.1% inflation peak — top 10% do half of consumer spending Fortune

Source: Fortune

Congressional trades in the stocks in this story

Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).

Who gains and who loses around Spdr Series Trust (XRT)

Companies tied to this story

  • XRT Spdr Series Trust

    In “Consumer sentiment is lower than at the 9.1% inflation peak — top 10% do half of consumer spending,” Spdr Series Trust (XRT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: SPDR S&P Retail ETF: it holds retailers. Linked by “consumer” (retail and consumer goods) in this story

  • XLY Select Sector Spdr Tr

    In “Consumer sentiment is lower than at the 9.1% inflation peak — top 10% do half of consumer spending,” Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLY) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR: it holds retailers. Linked by “consumer” (retail and consumer goods) in this story

  • TIP Ishares Tr

    Ishares Tr (TIP) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 30 Oct 2026 story “Consumer sentiment is lower than at the 9.1% inflation peak — top 10% do half of consumer spending.” Reason on file: iShares TIPS Bond ETF: it is a common hedge when prices rise. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story

  • WMT Walmart

    For “Consumer sentiment is lower than at the 9.1% inflation peak — top 10% do half of consumer spending,” Walmart (WMT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Walmart (variety stores): retailers move with shopper spending and import costs. Linked by “consumer” (retail and consumer goods) in this story

  • AMZN Amazon Com

    Amazon Com (AMZN) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 30 Oct 2026 story “Consumer sentiment is lower than at the 9.1% inflation peak — top 10% do half of consumer spending.” Reason on file: Amazon.com (catalog and mail-order houses): retailers move with shopper spending and import costs. Linked by “consumer” (retail and consumer goods) in this story

  • COST Costco Wholesale

    Costco Wholesale (COST) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 30 Oct 2026 story “Consumer sentiment is lower than at the 9.1% inflation peak — top 10% do half of consumer spending.” Reason on file: Costco Wholesale (variety stores): retailers move with shopper spending and import costs. Linked by “consumer” (retail and consumer goods) in this story

  • TGT Target

    For “Consumer sentiment is lower than at the 9.1% inflation peak — top 10% do half of consumer spending,” Target (TGT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Target (variety stores): retailers move with shopper spending and import costs. Linked by “consumer” (retail and consumer goods) in this story

  • PG Procter & Gamble

    For “Consumer sentiment is lower than at the 9.1% inflation peak — top 10% do half of consumer spending,” Procter & Gamble (PG) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: The Procter & Gamble (soap, detergents, cleang preparations, perfumes, cosmetics): big consumer-goods sellers feel price rises in costs and shopper demand. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story

Spdr Series Trust (XRT)

“Consumer sentiment is lower than at the 9.1% inflation peak — top 10% do half of consumer spending” (30 Oct 2026) reaches Spdr Series Trust (XRT) through this story.

For Spdr Series Trust (XRT), the reason on file says SPDR S&P Retail ETF: it holds retailers. Linked by “consumer” (retail and consumer goods) in this story

A second company, Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLY), is listed for a different reason: Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR: it holds retailers. Linked by “consumer” (retail and consumer goods) in this story

Dates in the story, and the Spdr Series Trust (XRT) price range

TIP traded between 103.77 and 105.67 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 105.27. XLY traded between 110.58 and 116.77 across 18 sessions. The latest close on file is 116.18.

A simple score for Spdr Series Trust (XRT)

46 out of 100

“Consumer sentiment is lower than at the 9.1% inflation peak — top 10% do half of consumer spending” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 8 linked companies.