Could US Export Controls Put $3 Billion in China’s Nvidia-Powered AI Projects at Risk?
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This report is about semiconductors and AI and big tech.
Directly affected
- NVDA Nvidia
Named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- SMH VanEck Semiconductor ETF
VanEck Semiconductor ETF: it holds chipmakers. Linked by “export controls” (semiconductors) in this story.
- SOXX iShares Semiconductor ETF
iShares Semiconductor ETF: it holds chipmakers. Linked by “export controls” (semiconductors) in this story.
- QQQ Invesco QQQ
Invesco QQQ: it holds the big tech and AI names. Linked by “ai” (AI and big tech) in this story.
- KWEB KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF
KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF: it holds Chinese internet companies. Linked by “china” (Chinese tech) in this story.
- FXI iShares China Large-Cap ETF
iShares China Large-Cap ETF holds stocks listed in China, which this story is about (“china”).
- ASML ASML Holding N.V
ASML Holding N.V (special industry machinery): chip demand, export rules and supply drive chipmakers' shares. Linked by “export controls” (semiconductors) in this story.
- TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (semiconductors and related devices): chip demand, export rules and supply drive chipmakers' shares. Linked by “export controls” (semiconductors) in this story.
- AVGO Broadcom
Broadcom (semiconductors and related devices): chip demand, export rules and supply drive chipmakers' shares. Linked by “export controls” (semiconductors) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | +12.42% | +1.63% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| SMH | -7.61% | -3.62% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| SOXX | -11.91% | -5.47% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| QQQ | -4.63% | -1.94% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| KWEB | +8.65% | +5.07% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| FXI | +4.36% | +2.79% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| ASML | -4.85% | +0.72% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| TSM | -7.50% | -2.24% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| AVGO | -19.45% | -8.83% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
Could US Export Controls Put $3 Billion in China’s Nvidia-Powered AI Projects at Risk? Modern Diplomacy
Source: Modern Diplomacy
This story
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| ASML | three days earlier | +0.72% | final price |
| ASML | five days earlier | -4.85% | final price |
| AVGO | three days earlier | -8.83% | final price |
| AVGO | five days earlier | -19.45% | final price |
| FXI | three days earlier | +2.79% | final price |
| FXI | five days earlier | +4.36% | final price |
| KWEB | three days earlier | +5.07% | final price |
| KWEB | five days earlier | +8.65% | final price |
| NVDA | three days earlier | +1.63% | final price |
| NVDA | five days earlier | +12.42% | final price |
| QQQ | three days earlier | -1.94% | final price |
| QQQ | five days earlier | -4.63% | final price |
| SMH | three days earlier | -3.62% | final price |
| SMH | five days earlier | -7.61% | final price |
| SOXX | three days earlier | -5.47% | final price |
| SOXX | five days earlier | -11.91% | final price |
| TSM | three days earlier | -2.24% | final price |
| TSM | five days earlier | -7.50% | final price |
Congressional trades in the stocks in this story
- Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar bought Nvidia (NVDA), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 23 Oct 2026. That is 21 days before publication. Filed 5 Nov 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna sold Nvidia (NVDA) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 7 Oct 2026. That is 37 days before publication. Filed 5 Nov 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold Nvidia (NVDA) (held by a spouse), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 2 Oct 2026. That is 42 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold Asml Holding (ASML) (jointly held), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 23 Oct 2026. That is 21 days before publication. Filed 28 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Cleo Fields bought Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 9 Oct 2026. That is 35 days before publication. Filed 22 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Gilbert Cisneros bought Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 22 Sep 2026. That is 52 days before publication. Filed 12 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael T. McCaul sold Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 25 Aug 2026. That is 80 days before publication. Filed 14 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Broadcom (AVGO) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 13 Oct 2026. That is 31 days before publication. Filed 5 Nov 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna sold Broadcom (AVGO) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 25 Sep 2026. That is 49 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. John J McGuire III sold Broadcom (AVGO) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 24 Sep 2026. That is 50 days before publication. Filed 1 Nov 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
This story
12 out of 100
“Could US Export Controls Put $3 Billion in China’s Nvidia-Powered AI Projects at Risk?” scores 12 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources.