CRCL Faces Q3 Test as Prediction Markets Bet on Earnings Beat Despite AI Revenue Risks
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This report is about exchanges and trading and AI and big tech.
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- IAI iShares U.S. Broker-Dealers & Securities Exchanges ETF
iShares U.S. Broker-Dealers & Securities Exchanges ETF: it holds exchanges and brokers. Linked by “prediction market” (exchanges and trading) in this story.
- QQQ Invesco QQQ-9.8% 30d
Invesco QQQ: it holds the big tech and AI names. Linked by “ai” (AI and big tech) in this story.
- CBOE Cboe Global Markets+34.3% 30d
Cboe Global Markets (security and commodity brokers, dealers, exchanges and services): exchanges and brokers earn more when trading activity grows. Linked by “prediction market” (exchanges and trading) in this story.
- CME CME Group+6.8% 18d
CME Group (security and commodity brokers, dealers, exchanges and services): exchanges and brokers earn more when trading activity grows. Linked by “prediction market” (exchanges and trading) in this story.
- HOOD Robinhood Markets-27.8% 30d
Robinhood Markets (security brokers, dealers and flotation companies): exchanges and brokers earn more when trading activity grows. Linked by “prediction market” (exchanges and trading) in this story.
- ICE Intercontinental Exchange+18.5% 30d
Intercontinental Exchange (security and commodity brokers, dealers, exchanges and services): exchanges and brokers earn more when trading activity grows. Linked by “prediction market” (exchanges and trading) in this story.
- MSFT Microsoft+1.1% 30d
Microsoft (prepackaged software): big tech's AI spending and demand drive its shares. Linked by “ai” (AI and big tech) in this story.
- GOOGL Alphabet-15.7% 30d
Alphabet (computer programming, data processing, etc.): big tech's AI spending and demand drive its shares. Linked by “ai” (AI and big tech) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IAI | +0.59% | +0.72% | base | +1.38% | +1.67% | +4.75% | +1.06% |
| QQQ | +3.12% | +5.08% | base | -1.30% | -0.76% | +0.17% | -5.59% |
| CBOE | -0.11% | -4.33% | base | +4.33% | +2.39% | +3.05% | +5.17% |
| CME | +1.59% | -3.00% | base | +1.03% | +0.26% | +1.39% | +1.32% |
| HOOD | +9.25% | +7.56% | base | -1.39% | +0.79% | +2.88% | -7.74% |
| ICE | -5.24% | -7.62% | base | +2.03% | +1.21% | +3.62% | +3.05% |
| MSFT | +2.03% | +1.97% | base | -2.87% | -0.22% | +6.53% | +2.62% |
| GOOGL | +13.19% | +16.25% | base | -0.31% | +0.00% | +3.25% | +0.97% |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
CRCL Faces Q3 Test as Prediction Markets Bet on Earnings Beat Despite AI Revenue Risks Yahoo Finance
Source: Yahoo Finance
This story
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBOE | that day | +4.33% | final price |
| CBOE | the next day | +2.39% | final price |
| CBOE | two days later | +3.05% | final price |
| CBOE | three days later | +5.17% | final price |
| CBOE | three days earlier | -4.33% | final price |
| CBOE | five days earlier | -0.11% | final price |
| CME | that day | +1.03% | final price |
| CME | the next day | +0.26% | final price |
| CME | two days later | +1.39% | final price |
| CME | three days later | +1.32% | final price |
| CME | three days earlier | -3.00% | final price |
| CME | five days earlier | +1.59% | final price |
| GOOGL | that day | -0.31% | final price |
| GOOGL | the next day | 0.00% | final price |
| GOOGL | two days later | +3.25% | final price |
| GOOGL | three days later | +0.97% | final price |
| GOOGL | three days earlier | +16.25% | final price |
| GOOGL | five days earlier | +13.19% | final price |
| HOOD | that day | -1.39% | final price |
| HOOD | the next day | +0.79% | final price |
| HOOD | two days later | +2.88% | final price |
| HOOD | three days later | -7.74% | final price |
| HOOD | three days earlier | +7.56% | final price |
| HOOD | five days earlier | +9.25% | final price |
| IAI | that day | +1.38% | final price |
| IAI | the next day | +1.67% | final price |
| IAI | two days later | +4.75% | final price |
| IAI | three days later | +1.06% | final price |
| IAI | three days earlier | +0.72% | final price |
| IAI | five days earlier | +0.59% | final price |
| ICE | that day | +2.03% | final price |
| ICE | the next day | +1.21% | final price |
| ICE | two days later | +3.62% | final price |
| ICE | three days later | +3.05% | final price |
| ICE | three days earlier | -7.62% | final price |
| ICE | five days earlier | -5.24% | final price |
| MSFT | that day | -2.87% | final price |
| MSFT | the next day | -0.22% | final price |
| MSFT | two days later | +6.53% | final price |
| MSFT | three days later | +2.62% | final price |
| MSFT | three days earlier | +1.97% | final price |
| MSFT | five days earlier | +2.03% | final price |
| QQQ | that day | -1.30% | final price |
| QQQ | the next day | -0.76% | final price |
| QQQ | two days later | +0.17% | final price |
| QQQ | three days later | -5.59% | final price |
| QQQ | three days earlier | +5.08% | final price |
| QQQ | five days earlier | +3.12% | final price |
Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Cme Group (CME), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 17 Aug 2026. That is 77 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, sold Cme Group (CME), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 10 Aug 2026. That is 84 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna sold Microsoft (MSFT) (held by a dependent child), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 28 Oct 2026. That is 5 days before publication. Filed 5 Nov 2026. View the filing.
- Sen. Shelley M Capito sold Microsoft (MSFT) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 21 Oct 2026. That is 12 days before publication. Filed 4 Nov 2026. View the filing.
- Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse sold Microsoft (MSFT) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 15 Oct 2026. That is 18 days before publication. Filed 2 Nov 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. David J. Taylor bought Alphabet (GOOGL), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 3 Nov 2026. That is 1 days after publication. Filed 12 Nov 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Alphabet (GOOGL) (held by a dependent child), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 28 Oct 2026. That is 5 days before publication. Filed 5 Nov 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold Alphabet (GOOGL), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 14 Sep 2026. That is 49 days before publication. Filed 18 Sep 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
This story
12 out of 100
“CRCL Faces Q3 Test as Prediction Markets Bet on Earnings Beat Despite AI Revenue Risks” scores 12 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources.