Credit pressures test bond rally as inflation complicates Fed policy outlook
Published . Updated .
'Making Money' panelists Phil Blancato and Elizabeth Burton analyze credit pressures weighing on the bond rally, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook and market expectations ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF-1.6% 30d
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story.
- IEF iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF-0.8% 30d
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story.
- XLF Financial Select Sector SPDR-3.1% 30d
Financial Select Sector SPDR: it holds banks. Linked by “credit” (banks) in this story.
- TIP iShares TIPS Bond ETF-0.5% 30d
iShares TIPS Bond ETF: it is a common hedge when prices rise. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story.
- JPM JPMorgan Chase-4.3% 30d
JPMorgan Chase (national commercial banks): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story.
- BAC Bank of America-11.1% 30d
Bank of America (national commercial banks): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story.
- WFC Wells Fargo-3.6% 30d
Wells Fargo (national commercial banks): banks' earnings move with lending, deposits and rates. Linked by “credit” (banks) in this story.
- C Citigroup-9.2% 30d
Citigroup (national commercial banks): banks' earnings move with lending, deposits and rates. Linked by “credit” (banks) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TLT | -0.10% | -0.30% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| IEF | -0.44% | -0.28% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| XLF | -2.88% | -1.05% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| TIPNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| JPM | -1.44% | +0.85% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| BAC | +2.23% | +3.18% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| WFCNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| CNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
Market Call
Think this story will push the stock up or down over the next three trading days? Make a free call and see what other readers think. Points are play money with no cash value.
Credit pressures test bond rally as inflation complicates Fed policy outlook Fox Business
Source: Fox Business
How far Ishares Tr (TLT) has moved since 2 Nov 2026
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bank Of America (BAC) | three days earlier | +3.18% | final price |
| Bank Of America (BAC) | five days earlier | +2.23% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (IEF) | three days earlier | -0.28% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (IEF) | five days earlier | -0.44% | final price |
| Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) | three days earlier | +0.85% | final price |
| Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) | five days earlier | -1.44% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (TLT) | three days earlier | -0.30% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (TLT) | five days earlier | -0.10% | final price |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLF) | three days earlier | -1.05% | final price |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLF) | five days earlier | -2.88% | final price |
Congressional trades in the stocks in this story
- Sen. John Boozman bought Ishares Tr (IEF) (jointly held), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 9 Sep 2026. That is 54 days before publication. Filed 21 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse sold Jpmorgan Chase (JPM), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 4 Sep 2026. That is 59 days before publication. Filed 1 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse sold Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) (held by a spouse), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 4 Sep 2026. That is 59 days before publication. Filed 1 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) (held by a spouse), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 27 Aug 2026. That is 67 days before publication. Filed 4 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna sold Bank Of America (BAC) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 9 Sep 2026. That is 54 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Laurel Lee sold Bank Of America (BAC) (held by a spouse), worth $50,001 - $100,000 on 24 Aug 2026. That is 70 days before publication. Filed 16 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Wells Fargo (WFC) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 25 Sep 2026. That is 38 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Wells Fargo (WFC) (held by a dependent child), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 17 Sep 2026. That is 46 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Wells Fargo (WFC) (held by a dependent child), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 15 Sep 2026. That is 48 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar sold Citigroup (C), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 24 Sep 2026. That is 39 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Citigroup (C) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 4 Sep 2026. That is 59 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold Walmart (WMT) (held by a spouse), worth $50,001 - $100,000 on 2 Oct 2026. That is 31 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
Who gains and who loses around Ishares Tr (TLT)
Companies carried with this story
- TLT Ishares Tr
For “Credit pressures test bond rally as inflation complicates Fed policy outlook,” Ishares Tr (TLT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story
- IEF Ishares Tr
For “Credit pressures test bond rally as inflation complicates Fed policy outlook,” Ishares Tr (IEF) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story
- TIP Ishares Tr
In “Credit pressures test bond rally as inflation complicates Fed policy outlook,” Ishares Tr (TIP) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: iShares TIPS Bond ETF: it is a common hedge when prices rise. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story
- XLF Select Sector Spdr Tr
For “Credit pressures test bond rally as inflation complicates Fed policy outlook,” Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLF) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Financial Select Sector SPDR: it holds banks. Linked by “credit” (banks) in this story
- WMT Walmart
In “Credit pressures test bond rally as inflation complicates Fed policy outlook,” Walmart (WMT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Walmart (variety stores): big consumer-goods sellers feel price rises in costs and shopper demand. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story
- JPM Jpmorgan Chase
Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 2 Nov 2026 story “Credit pressures test bond rally as inflation complicates Fed policy outlook.” Reason on file: JPMorgan Chase (national commercial banks): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story
- COST Costco Wholesale
In “Credit pressures test bond rally as inflation complicates Fed policy outlook,” Costco Wholesale (COST) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Costco Wholesale (variety stores): big consumer-goods sellers feel price rises in costs and shopper demand. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story
- BAC Bank Of America
Bank Of America (BAC) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 2 Nov 2026 story “Credit pressures test bond rally as inflation complicates Fed policy outlook.” Reason on file: Bank of America (national commercial banks): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story
Ishares Tr (TLT)
The 2 Nov 2026 story “Credit pressures test bond rally as inflation complicates Fed policy outlook” names Ishares Tr (TLT) because of this story.
What ties Ishares Tr (TLT) to the headline is this: iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story
Ishares Tr (IEF) is here too. Its reason reads: iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story
Dates in the story, and the Ishares Tr (TLT) price range
IEF traded between 88.64 and 91.23 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 90.08. TIP traded between 103.77 and 105.67 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 105.27. TLT traded between 76.44 and 81.94 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 79.46.
How strong the case is around Ishares Tr (TLT)
46 out of 100
“Credit pressures test bond rally as inflation complicates Fed policy outlook” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 8 linked companies.