Crude Oil Prices Rally on Report that Persian Gulf Is on Notice for US Military Attack on Iran
Published . Updated .
This report is about oil and defense. Names like XOM typically gain because exxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- USO United States Oil Fund+4.8% 30d
United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- XLE Energy Select Sector SPDR+6.5% 30d
Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- ITA iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF-4.2% 30d
iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF: it holds defense and aerospace contractors. Linked by “military” (defense) in this story.
- BWET Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF+38.2% 18d
Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF: it tracks tanker freight rates. Linked by “gulf” (tanker shipping) in this story.
- XOM ExxonMobil Holdings+9.0% 13d
ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- CVX Chevron+7.9% 30d
Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- SHEL Shell+0.1% 13d
Shell (crude petroleum and natural gas): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- OXY Occidental Petroleum+1.5% 30d
Occidental Petroleum (crude petroleum and natural gas): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USO | -2.37% | +3.62% | base | +1.87% | after close | after close | after close |
| XLE | -0.12% | +1.60% | base | +0.34% | after close | after close | after close |
| ITANo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| BWETNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| XOM | -1.00% | +1.85% | base | +1.22% | after close | after close | after close |
| CVXNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| SHELNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| OXYNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
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Crude Oil Prices Rally on Report that Persian Gulf Is on Notice for US Military Attack on Iran Barchart.com
Source: Barchart.com
How United States Oil Fund (USO) moved across the last 18 energy stories
In the last 18 similar stories, United States Oil Fund (USO) moved an average of +2.31% the next day. The best was +6.10% and the worst was -3.69%, from 15 prices.
| Company | When | Average | Largest gain | Largest drop | Prices |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | the next day | +2.31% | +6.10% | -3.69% | 15 |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | three days later | +3.41% | +5.37% | +2.22% | 14 |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) | the next day | +0.81% | +2.88% | -1.51% | 15 |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) | three days later | +1.39% | +2.31% | +0.18% | 14 |
| IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) | the next day | +0.11% | +1.17% | -0.94% | 2 |
| IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) | three days later | -0.47% | +1.59% | -2.53% | 2 |
- Brent Tops $110 as Tanker Attacks Threaten Persian Gulf Supply
- Oil near $110 after Houthi attack claims and Iranian threats
- Iran oil exports through Hormuz dry up under US blockade
- Iraq’s crude exports ‘back to pre-war levels’, says minister
- Persian Gulf Oil Exports Top Prewar Levels
- European gas rallies on Persian gulf disruption pressure; Hot UK Inflation dents
The price since 28 Oct 2026: United States Oil Fund (USO) versus the S&P 500
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | that day | +1.87% | final price |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | three days earlier | +3.62% | final price |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | five days earlier | -2.37% | final price |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) | that day | +0.34% | final price |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) | three days earlier | +1.60% | final price |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) | five days earlier | -0.12% | final price |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | that day | +1.22% | final price |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | three days earlier | +1.85% | final price |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | five days earlier | -1.00% | final price |
Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) (jointly held), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 31 Aug 2026. That is 58 days before publication. Filed 25 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM), worth $250,001 - $500,000 on 31 Jul 2026. That is 89 days before publication. Filed 22 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold Chevron (CVX) (jointly held), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 23 Sep 2026. That is 35 days before publication. Filed 13 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar bought Chevron (CVX), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 2 Sep 2026. That is 56 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Chevron (CVX), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 26 Aug 2026. That is 63 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Occidental Petroleum (OXY), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 21 Aug 2026. That is 68 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
The Persian Gulf count beside this story
Geopolitics Alpha has 18 stories about Persian Gulf from the past 7 days and 40 stories from the past 30. That is faster than its usual pace over the past month. “Crude Oil Prices Rally on Report that Persian Gulf Is on Notice for US Military Attack on Iran” is tagged to Persian Gulf.
Who gains and who pays if Persian Gulf stays in the story
Companies that tend to gain
- XOM ExxonMobil Holdings
For “Crude Oil Prices Rally on Report that Persian Gulf Is on Notice for US Military Attack on Iran,” ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) tends to benefit, medium confidence. Reason on file: ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
No up or down call on file
- USO United States Oil Fund
United States Oil Fund (USO) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 28 Oct 2026 story “Crude Oil Prices Rally on Report that Persian Gulf Is on Notice for US Military Attack on Iran.” Reason on file: United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- XLE Select Sector Spdr Tr
For “Crude Oil Prices Rally on Report that Persian Gulf Is on Notice for US Military Attack on Iran,” Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- ITA IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF
IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 28 Oct 2026 story “Crude Oil Prices Rally on Report that Persian Gulf Is on Notice for US Military Attack on Iran.” Reason on file: iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF: it holds defense and aerospace contractors. Linked by “military” (defense) in this story
- BWET Amplify Commodity Trust
In “Crude Oil Prices Rally on Report that Persian Gulf Is on Notice for US Military Attack on Iran,” Amplify Commodity Trust (BWET) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF: it tracks tanker freight rates. Linked by “gulf” (tanker shipping) in this story
How a Persian Gulf shock reaches United States Oil Fund (USO)
United States Oil Fund (USO) is the company in “Crude Oil Prices Rally on Report that Persian Gulf Is on Notice for US Military Attack on Iran,” the 28 Oct 2026 Persian Gulf story.
United States Oil Fund (USO) is on the page because United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) is here too. Its reason reads: Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
What this energy story puts on the calendar
ITA traded between 197.59 and 211.29 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 206.15. USO traded between 141.82 and 169.96 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 163.62. XLE traded between 61.05 and 69.86 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 68.23.
How strong the case is around United States Oil Fund (USO)
54 out of 100
“Crude Oil Prices Rally on Report that Persian Gulf Is on Notice for US Military Attack on Iran” scores 54 out of 100. The score uses 2 sources, and 8 linked companies.