Geopolitics Alpha

Democrats Win Congress but Costa Rica’s US Tariff Stays

Published . Updated .

Key takeaways

  • Democrats won the US Senate and are projected to take the House.
  • Exposed: XLI, XRT, CAT, DE, WMT
  • Market reaction: price tracking starts with the next trading session.

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Democrats Win Congress but Costa Rica’s US Tariff Stays

Democrats won the US Senate and are projected to take the House. Why that won't quickly lift Costa Rica's 12.5% tariff, and what could.

Directly affected

  • No company is named in this report.

Indirectly affected

  • XLI Industrial Select Sector SPDR-0.3% 30d

    Industrial Select Sector SPDR: it holds companies hit by import costs and trade rules. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.

  • XRT SPDR S&P Retail ETF

    SPDR S&P Retail ETF: it holds companies hit by import costs and trade rules. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.

  • CAT Caterpillar-23.2% 30d

    Caterpillar (construction machinery and equip): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.

  • DE Deere-0.6% 30d

    Deere (farm machinery and equipment): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.

  • WMT Walmart+12.9% 30d

    Walmart (variety stores): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.

  • NKE Nike+6.7% 30d

    Nike (rubber and plastics footwear): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.

Price reaction, T-5 to T+3

TickerT-5T-3T-1T0T+1T+2T+3
XLI-1.66%-2.29%baseafter closeafter closeafter closeafter close
XRT-2.30%-0.06%baseafter closeafter closeafter closeafter close
CAT+14.53%-0.17%baseafter closeafter closeafter closeafter close
DE-3.81%+1.40%baseafter closeafter closeafter closeafter close
WMT-4.79%-1.04%baseafter closeafter closeafter closeafter close
NKE-3.40%+0.56%baseafter closeafter closeafter closeafter close

Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.

Democrats Win Congress but Costa Rica’s US Tariff Stays The Tico Times

Source: The Tico Times

Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI) since “Democrats Win Congress but Costa Rica’s US Tariff Stays,” compared with the market

CompanyWhenMoveStatus
Caterpillar (CAT)three days earlier-0.17%final price
Caterpillar (CAT)five days earlier+14.53%final price
Deere (DE)three days earlier+1.40%final price
Deere (DE)five days earlier-3.81%final price
Nike (NKE)three days earlier+0.56%final price
Nike (NKE)five days earlier-3.40%final price
Walmart (WMT)three days earlier-1.04%final price
Walmart (WMT)five days earlier-4.79%final price
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI)three days earlier-2.29%final price
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI)five days earlier-1.66%final price
Spdr Series Trust (XRT)three days earlier-0.06%final price
Spdr Series Trust (XRT)five days earlier-2.30%final price

Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story

Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).

Who gains and who loses around Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI)

Companies mentioned with this story

  • XLI Select Sector Spdr Tr

    Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 4 Nov 2026 story “Democrats Win Congress but Costa Rica’s US Tariff Stays.” Reason on file: Industrial Select Sector SPDR: it holds companies hit by import costs and trade rules. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story

  • XRT Spdr Series Trust

    For “Democrats Win Congress but Costa Rica’s US Tariff Stays,” Spdr Series Trust (XRT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: SPDR S&P Retail ETF: it holds companies hit by import costs and trade rules. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story

  • CAT Caterpillar

    In “Democrats Win Congress but Costa Rica’s US Tariff Stays,” Caterpillar (CAT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Caterpillar (construction machinery and equip): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story

  • DE Deere

    For “Democrats Win Congress but Costa Rica’s US Tariff Stays,” Deere (DE) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Deere (farm machinery and equipment): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story

  • WMT Walmart

    In “Democrats Win Congress but Costa Rica’s US Tariff Stays,” Walmart (WMT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Walmart (variety stores): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story

  • NKE Nike

    Nike (NKE) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 4 Nov 2026 story “Democrats Win Congress but Costa Rica’s US Tariff Stays.” Reason on file: Nike (rubber and plastics footwear): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story

How “Democrats Win Congress but Costa Rica’s US Tariff Stays” reaches Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI)

The 4 Nov 2026 story “Democrats Win Congress but Costa Rica’s US Tariff Stays” names Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI) because of this story.

Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI) is on the page because Industrial Select Sector SPDR: it holds companies hit by import costs and trade rules. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story

Spdr Series Trust (XRT) is here too. Its reason reads: SPDR S&P Retail ETF: it holds companies hit by import costs and trade rules. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story

The price range for Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI), and the dates in the story

CAT traded between 609.97 and 844.69 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 623.81. XLI traded between 163.00 and 172.33 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 169.73.

How strong the case is around Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI)

46 out of 100

“Democrats Win Congress but Costa Rica’s US Tariff Stays” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 6 linked companies.